Quote from Booster SD on December 4, 2018, 9:15 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 4, 2018, 8:41 am

Something that will make Kyle Seager HARDER to deal (to anyone) at age 31 coming off a poor 2018 (OPS .673) .... if he is traded the club option for the 4th year converts to a player option at $15MM creating a 4 year $71MM liability for the buying club.

From Seattle's perspective that would force them to eat more contract (to trade him) that they don't currently have as a liability making the financials worse over time. They may be better served to play him in 2019 ... hope for the production rebound .. and market him next winter (or the following winter) to find a buyer.

Seems like a bad risk for any potential buyer ... and there are not a lot seeking a 3B at a lofty price tag.

So Seager is owed $72.5M and Leake is owed $27M after the money that is being paid by STL. Myers is owed $74M in basically the same time frame that Seager is under contract. So a Myers for Seager straight up would eliminate a hole for SD at the time and clean up the OF logjam and save us $1.5M which is nothing. And then Leake would average out at $13.5M per season, eat some innings, and help teach the kids how to go about being a MLer. Plus, with Balsley magic could bounce back to be a good option for SD or a trade chip down the road. So even though we can not get Segura, I think I still do a Seager/Leake for Myers trade.

Quote from fenn68 on December 4, 2018, 9:23 am

On the OF glut ... agree that who gets traded is a function of the alternative returns in play. Never go into this wanting to trade a specific player but am willing to trade any of them if the price is right. Myers' contract make his being dealt difficult at this point but keeping him is not all that bad ... consider in 2018:

Myers: offense is +110 wRC+ ... defense in LF created a +4 DRS over 304 innings and a UZR/150 +15.6

Renfroe: offense is +108 wRC+ ... defense created a +2 DRS over 476 innings and a UZR/150 -0.9

Reyes: offense is +129 wRC+ ... defense created a -1 DRS over 551 innings and a UZR/150 -11.7

Cordero: offense is +95 wRC+ ... defense created a -6 DRS over 519 innings and a UZR/150 -11.5 (great speed / bad reads?)

Agree or don't with the measures and the small sample sizes but probably does present a fair comparison of the four. From this one could conclude the best offense / defense mix comes for keeping Myers and Renfroe .... the defense from Reyes and Cordero is clearly below average and not sure that their POTENTIAL offense offsets that.

However, Reyes and Cordero have limited (or no) real trade value compared to their POTENTIAL .... Myers' contract is a burden compared to similar production from Renfroe and therefore Renfroe SHOULD yield the best return in improving the 25 man roster.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 4, 2018, 11:36 am

Some "Chicken Little" going on here re: our offense.  There are 8 position players.  We are adding the:

#1 MLB SS prospect (#2 overall) Tatis:  60 Hit tool, .355 OBP  AA likely early in season (SS or 3B).

#2 MLB C prospect (#26 overall) Mejia:  60 Hit tool, .338 OBP  AAA  AND

#1 MLB 2B prospect (#27 overall) Urias:  70 Hit tool, .398 OBP AAA**

So 3 of the 8 positions all hit/offense first profile players including elite hit tool Urias.  Assuming no trades:

C- Hedges/Mejia,  1B- Hosmer, 2B- Urias, SS- (Tatis), 3B- ??  (Myers?)  OF- 5 young guys all 4-6 years control (PLUS Myers): Great RH/LH/power/speed/defense balance, but probably no 60 grade Hit tools (was Margot ever this high? can Reyes sustain?)

So the question is:  WHERE would you add "offense"?  Only answer is really 3B, and if you do, then even more compelled to trade a RH corner OF (decreasing return, b/c "have to" trade one) more than already need to.

Yes, Pads need "offense" (OBP ability; NOT power)... but I think we have it already in place.

**Related Tangent:  Is there any chance / justification for 21 year old Urias opening in AAA to get his MLB service time (0.038) < 1 year by end of season?  i.e. "trade" this year of control when not contending for an additional one down the line when we (still 🙂 are contending

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 4, 2018, 2:06 pm

Justification on holding Urias in AAA for a couple of months for added control ... yes ... and might happen if Urias really struggles in ST. However, does not seem to be Preller's philosophy. He is a more if the player deserves to be in the ML and helps the parent club ... call him up. A couple of points: 1) 6 years is a long time and too much unknown to play the delay game; 2) their is an advantage of getting the better prospects more ML time in an effort to accelerate their development ... important if you want to be a contender sooner than later.

Oddly, give in INF situation, there is a better chance we start the season with Urias - Tatis in the starting line-up .. if we are going to take the lumps n 2019 might use the ML as a development tool.

=======

Adding offense ... yes, 3B is the obvious place ... going with the kids at 2B/SS/C is inevitable ... but (maybe not in 2019) I would consider upgrades in the OF a fair target. The current names are sort of in that "nice" but not contender level ... made worse with Renfro, Myers, Reyes, and Cordero offer no offset with their defense.

Quote from fenn68 on December 4, 2018, 2:11 pm

Sorting through rumors (most with little substance) ... now that Philly has traded for Segura they may be backing off Machado (who really does not want to return to 3B) and shift to spend BIG for Harper. How could that impact the Padres ... now they hold on to Franco for 3B (good) and reduces their OF needs (think Myers / Renfroe ... bad).

Quote from fenn68 on December 4, 2018, 2:24 pm

Seager may be emerging as the best 3B option (baring a signing of Moustakas). If the Padres actually think he can be productive for the next 4 years (that is a legit question), maybe a simpler deal would work that fits Seattle's objectives and the Padres:

Seattle wants to shed money and shed long term contracts (not a fit for Myers) but do want prospects (Padres have that). So,

Padres get Seager and $30MM to defray his $71MM contract for 4 years making the AAV around $10MM ... probably a fair price for a LHH, defense plus, power hitting 3B ... albeit at ages 31-35.

Padres deliver prospects .... and given Seattle is primarily motivated to shed money (they save about $27MM over the 3 years pre-option) ... depth of prospects (rather than one elite) might work given their weak farm system. Thinking the Quantrill, Naylor, Nix, France, .... maybe even Potts.

IF they really see the upside of Seager and can't come to agreement on prospects ... not unrealistic to move the AAV up create better savings for Seattle. Potentially, if Seager does well, he can be moved in a couple of years if needed.

Much simpler.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 4, 2018, 2:49 pm

Is Seager better than Moustakas?

Defensively isn’t Moose  better?

Offensively maybe a wash?

I’m just thinking maybe signing Moose instead of giving up prospects for Seager may be the better way to go.

Save the prospects to trade at the deadline for pitchers who teams out of contention may want to move or even for next off season.

Only caveat to that is if the Mariners want Myers and his contract in return.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 4, 2018, 3:37 pm

Quote from David Nevin on December 4, 2018, 2:49 pm

Is Seager better than Moustakas?

Defensively isn’t Moose  better?

Offensively maybe a wash?

I’m just thinking maybe signing Moose instead of giving up prospects for Seager may be the better way to go.

Save the prospects to trade at the deadline for pitchers who teams out of contention may want to move or even for next off season.

Only caveat to that is if the Mariners want Myers and his contract in return.

 

 

Think Moustakas faded defensively after a knee injury a couple years back .... Seager is now vastly superior defensively ... 2018 dWAR had Seager at +8.8 and Moustakas at +1.0 ... been that way for a couple of years now.

Moustakas grades out better offensively last season but before that ... maybe a push.

Moustakas would be the safer move at a much lower cost (especially if they think Potts will be around in 3 years). Most think Moustakas will not go beyond 2 years at maybe $8-10MM / season ... just not a big market for 3B. Of course, Moustakas does have to agree.

Quote from Commie on December 4, 2018, 6:55 pm

Leake is fine and all, but what about going hard and pushing for Gonzalez to be included? Dangle Morejon or Patino plus E Ruiz or similar.

Myers, Morejon, Naylor, A Allen and E Ruiz for Gonzalez, Weaver and Leake. Put Kennedy or Mitchell (at Pads cost salary wise) if necessary.

The above prospects would all slot in at top 15 for Sea (not throw in guys). Boost the "near term" rebuild as they are mostly close to ML.