Quote from fenn68 on February 24, 2019, 8:20 am

Quote from David Nevin on February 24, 2019, 7:02 am

So does the Machado signing pretty much assure that Tatis will be up as soon as possible?

Before the signing I thought he could stay down for half a season or so....but now I gotta believe they want him up with Urias and Machado soon as possible.

 

From Preller's history it is mostly up to Tatis to show he is ready. Preller will not hold him back to protect service time (or Super 2) ... Preller's view is if a player is ready ... he is up. (we can all debate "ready" but expect that to be a staff call not based on potential).

Even though Tatis is an elite prospect and probably ML ready defensively .... he did not even have a full season in AA so his readiness to hit quality ML pitching may be in question without some AAA exposure ... how much?

So, do expect him up early (if he is at all successful in AAA) .... and if he has an impressive ST, would not be surprised he starts the season in the ML (especially if Urias or Kinsler get injured).

=====

Always sitting in the back of my mind is the premature call-up of Rizzo after he was dominating AAA pitching even though the GM (Hoyer?) later admitted they saw some holes in his swing that could have been better served with more AAA time. In Chicago, Rizzo ended up with a bit more AAA time and we saw how he returned. Guessing the FO was "pressured" to get Rizzo up. All that is debatable, but the key is that a player may have additional development that the fans don't necessarily see (or want to see).

Quote from LynchMob on February 24, 2019, 8:43 am

If I remember correctly, Tatis has started the last 2 seasons slowly ... then made fantastic adjustments.

I think with the Machado signing, it's more likely that the Super 2 deadline DOES matter ... I want that extra season ... don't you?

Way too many very, very good reasons for Tatis to play at AAA *at least* until the Super 2 deadline.

In my mind, it's more likely that Urias also starts in AAA ... so that he can play with Tatis ...

Hmm ... https://library.fangraphs.com/business/super-two/ ... this says Super 2 deadline is ~65 days ... that's more than I thought ... hmm ...

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 24, 2019, 9:30 am

I feel very confident Urias will be our opening day SS with Kinsler at 2b until they do bring Tatis up.

End of April is my hope....unless he does start slow in AAA and then they could wait until he breaks out of it.

 

Quote from fenn68 on February 24, 2019, 10:06 am

Super 2 typically cuts late June but if Tatis is ready earlier (let us say May 1 after a month of AAA) Preller would not flinch and make the call up. More important to him (and probably the franchise) to get him up ... developing ... so they can contend sooner than later. (he needs only to be in AAA a few weeks to get the extra control year so if he is sent down ... that should just happen.)

The debate will be really around "is he ready" in the minds of the development staff ... at this point have seen nothing as a mere mortal to suggest yes or no or when.

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 24, 2019, 11:42 am

Quote from LynchMob on February 24, 2019, 8:43 am

If I remember correctly, Tatis has started the last 2 seasons slowly ... then made fantastic adjustments.

I think with the Machado signing, it's more likely that the Super 2 deadline DOES matter ... I want that extra season ... don't you?

Way too many very, very good reasons for Tatis to play at AAA *at least* until the Super 2 deadline.

In my mind, it's more likely that Urias also starts in AAA ... so that he can play with Tatis ...

Hmm ... https://library.fangraphs.com/business/super-two/ ... this says Super 2 deadline is ~65 days ... that's more than I thought ... hmm ...

Lynch,  I completely agree.  I think the biggest ramification of the Machado trade is that Service time DOES matter more...in 2019

This is the last year Pads won't yet be going all in to contend.  That means they need to focus on capturing an Extra year of control over their best, youngest prospects (that are close) THIS season:  Tatis, Urias, Paddack, Mejia, & Logan Allen.  After this year, every single potential win could represent the difference between making or missing the playoffs; too much risk to holding anyone except perhaps Mackenzie Gore down to gain that extra year.

There are two beneficial service time targets:  As fans not paying the bills, the more important one is the 3 weeks or so required in the Minors to keep these prospects MLB service time under 1.00.  If the prospect is then called up "for good" after that point, the result is they will be Super-2 eligible, giving the Padres that extra year of (Arbitration) control.  This is the track Hedges, Jankowski, and next year Renfroe are on.   This is why I feel it's so important for not only Tatis, but also Paddack & Allen to NOT be on the Opening Day roster:  3 weeks of beneficial time @ AAA not only gains that control year, it (slightly?) lessens the amount they earn the 1st 3 Arb years as Super 2 guys vs "regular" arb guys.  Of course the 4th year is expensive, but they're still on your team.  Mejia &  Urias' clocks have already started, so they would have to be down much longer to wind up < 1.000 MLB year.  I'm in the camp that Mejia's defensive C will only develop if he plays regularly.  Could see him in AAA till ASB, but definitely depends on the camp he has.  Not really worried about his service year...

But I am about Urias.  Urias' low power profile will hold down his arb salaries, but in my mind you still don't give up a year control on such a young offensive catalyst guy "just" for the 12 games he played on Pads last year before getting hurt (0.034 service time).  Looking at the Machado signing, I just don't see the "point" in Urias playing SS in MLB for a month until Tatis arrives.... wouldn't it make sense for them both to work (together) at the positions they are going to play in MLB?   Also, Kinsler simply isn't going to play much once they both arrive.   IMO if 2B Urias, SS Tatis, 3B Machado go on DL, aren't the backups: 2B & 3B Kinsler, SS Machado?   If Javy Guerra is elite defensively, maybe we just live with him for a month until BOTH Urias & Tatis arrive together?

Avoiding Super 2 status altogether is much harder:  That's the June 1st-ish date.  I think how Tatis is playing relative to whomever the Pads have at both 2B & SS will determine this.  DON'T see the Pads holding him back this long IF he gets off to a good start.  He has typically started slowly since getting pushed up system so fast, but I don't think it's going to happen again after he played so well in Winter Ball in Dominican Republic.  In my mind Tatis & Paddack are the only 2 where this date is an issue; but if their performance clearly shows they belong in MLB, you don't wait this long.

Quote from fenn68 on February 24, 2019, 12:29 pm

Probably a pretty save bet that Tatis, Paddack, and Allen start in AAA and without much issue given none have much  (if any) AAA experience. A side consideration is that neither Tatis nor Allen are on the 40 man. Not a big issue to drop someone to add them BUT if they then need to get optioned if they don't hit the ground running ... they have created some holes. A problem that just does not need to be there by just starting them in AAA and see how they perform (and the others ticketed to get dropped). With Paddack barely pitched about A+ and is ticketed for controlled workload ... better served to begin the season in AAA to be groomed for more of a full load when he is recalled.

Side note: even if one or more start the season ... they could get optioned at any point for a month and achieve the same enhanced control year.

I guess if they were looking at extending control over Mejias, Urias, and others ... a bit tougher to swing since some have secured some ML service time. Mejia (62 days) would need to be optioned for about 3 months ... not out of the question if they want him to work on his defense and plate discipline (either Stewart added or a mid-season flip with Allen). Urias (34 days) would need to be down for 2 months ... unlikely unless he struggles but possible. Outside chance that Margot (12 days) could see about 6 weeks for that extra year. Then if you really want to get the folks riled up ... send down Lucchesi for a a few weeks since he is right at 1 year ... not going to happen.

Personally don't think anyone in the Padres' front office is concerned doubt Super 2 money as a decision driver ... probably more interested in getting a prospect up and productive to warrant paying a premium at Super 2. If this were previous ownerships may be different. Getting top prospects up to the delight of the fans should have a plus financial impact vs. artificially holding the back to the ire of the fans.

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 24, 2019, 12:46 pm

Is it just me, or in the Harper / Machado debate, does anyone else not see how even a LH elite power & OBP OF can possibly deliver the WAR/value that an elite offense/defense 3B AND SS not just "capable" but "good" can?

I know this might be "especially" true for the Padres; going from basically negative WAR to +5 @ 3B.  But in OF adding Harper would force subtraction of someone (lets say Myers or Renfroe) who was 2.4 WAR last year.... even if Harper is 6 WAR, "only" gaining 3.5 or whatever.  and I've looked at their relative #'s, but WHY is Harper worth 10-20% more than the already absurd $ Machado is?  It just seems impossible to me for a corner OF to deliver that much excess value over an INF position (I get it's mostly about the offense; just saying defensive contribution just fundamentally limited).    Just all about the LH OBP?  Star power?

The only Harper scenario that keeps popping into my mind is to sign him (would massively diminish the "marketing value" of having signed Machado), then turn around and pull a "can't say 'No' trade with Indians for Kluber like:  Myers, Margot, Yates, Lucchesi/Lauer, Morejon and Potts.   Harper would have to be less $ this year, with some $ freed up in 2020... extremely unlikely, but Pads would at that point have to be considered in contention.

What I think Preller is doing besides due diligence of exhausting every creative option possible is:  1)  Muddying water for Phillies who we may be contending with for years by forcing them to pay more, 2) Blocking any possibility of San Fran doing a shorter deal by offering to match/beat same?

Likely tomorrow it's the Phillies and everyone can finally move on!

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 24, 2019, 1:42 pm

Harper has much more value off the field than Machado.

Is it enough to warrant the additional millions?

Maybe maybe not.

 

I realize Paddack most likely won’t break camp with the big club but I would love to see a piggyback scenario with Paddack and Strahm.

Paddack will have his innings limited and Strahm needs to build his up.

These two are completely different looks for hitters....I can only imagine how difficult it would be to face Paddack once or twice and then see Strahm.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 24, 2019, 1:46 pm

Every day that goes by that Harper doesn’t sign with the Phils reduces the likelihood he will.

It seems obvious he has a record breaking deal on the table from them.....so he holds out not for more money....but for a more deireable location.