Quote from Randy Manese on December 4, 2023, 11:02 pm

Guessing that Padres take at least 2 players in Rule 5, major league phase.  Probably SP/RP candidates, although might take an OF/1b type with some power potential.  Don't expect them to lose anyone at the top level, but maybe in the minor league phase.

Quote from fenn68 on December 5, 2023, 2:43 am

MLBTR is reporting that the Padres met with representatives for Gary Sanchez yesterday … no deal imminent but if one it could be in the $6-8MM range.

In this market … and considering the Padres really like what Sanchez did for the team in 2023 … that seems about right. I would consider a 2 year deal to give a better bridge to Salas.

If that came down now the Padres would still be under the $200MM mark.

Quote from fenn68 on December 5, 2023, 2:52 am

Think they hold the “draft lottery” today. Padres have as I recall a 0.7% chance of landing one of the top 6 picks in the 2024 draft for having the 14th worst record in 2023.

Hopefully the Padres get one of the Top 6 … if not … because of the penalties for exceeding the luxury tax … their pick would drop from 14 to 24.

Quote from fenn68 on December 5, 2023, 3:45 am

Preller’s presser yesterday was nothing surprising as he addressed the Soto situation. As expected … to try to push up the trade value of Soto … indicated that they don’t need to trade Soto and would like to find a route to keep him.

To that end, he suggested low end FA and some of the internal AA prospects would fill the pitching needs. Although that is a strategy … hard to see that creating a playoff team considering the Padres did not make the playoffs with Soto in 2023 but lost Snell, Hader, Lugo, Wacha, Garcia, Sanchez … in 2024 terms that is a group that will cost in the $90-100MM range.

For those who want to keep Soto (not me) the combo of not getting an offer with ML talent in the return AND Preller going through the FA pitchers and concluding they cannot sign anyone compelling for the money they have to deploy they might hold IF he concludes the best chance (albeit long odds) of the playoffs is just adding low end FA / AA prospects.

I keep the focus on the objective of making the playoffs NOT the ability of Soto being by itself something to retain. That is a Preller evaluation considering the final roster construction with or without Soto ,,, and that is something Preller will never reveal.

Is he just hyping or does he really believed the likes of Snelling, Iriate, Bergert, Mazur can be effective ML SP to start 2024 to the level of sustaining a contender? Given the current price for mediocre FA SP (at least $10MM) can they sign enough (along with filling other holes) with the money available if they keep Soto?

If the odds to make the playoffs (and ultimately go deep in the playoffs) is determined to be low with (or without) Soto … or even equal … is the better long run move is dealing Soto for the best offer?

The pessimist in me is coming out today.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 5, 2023, 4:54 am

I don't think we can look at this years roster on opening day...and even if it seems liKe a "lesser" team than last year,correctly assume they will win less games.

Last year was an anomaly.

No way we can possibly be that "unlucky" in close games and with risp.

Not possible.

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 5, 2023, 6:11 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 5, 2023, 4:54 am

I don't think we can look at this years roster on opening day...and even if it seems liKe a "lesser" team than last year,correctly assume they will win less games.

Last year was an anomaly.

No way we can possibly be that "unlucky" in close games and with risp.

Not possible.

 

Unless with the current pitching staff they can’t get close enough in be in one run games to make luck irrelevant. The SP staff had one of the best ERA in MLB in 2023 … 2024 at least one run per game more. Zero chance they replace the quality of Snell, Hader, Wacha, Lugo, and even Martinez to maintain the same results. Offense should be more productive but not nearly enough to offset the pitching crisis.

Six teams in the NL will have better records and get the playoff slots … at least the odds should be set that way.

Musgrove and Darvish (If healthy and stay healthy) are it … then zip. Padres were extremely lucky with the performance of Lugo, Wacha, and Martinez last year with all exceeding expectations (probably also the level of Snell’s performance) and if luck will turn around on the offense … luck will turn around with the pitching by not being able add arms producing anywhere near 2023 levels.

Have to see the “new” SP adds before would consider the Padres a playoff team … if I actually like them. Setting up for a lot of high scoring games in 2024.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 5, 2023, 6:27 am

Quote from BoosterSD on December 4, 2023, 6:37 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 4, 2023, 6:02 pm

Interesting read about Soto and the team's financial situation.

https://www.thebiglead.com/posts/padres-juan-soto-trade-yankees-01hgvaesbrnf

If this is a reliable source, and who says some of the other ones are as well, this is great news for SD fans.

If SD can keep Soto, and still add the pitching that they need, that would be a perfect world, and a chance to win it all for Siedler would be fantastic.

Not sure this changes the landscape. Padres with Soto are under the $200MM mark. So, they have made the target already and don’t HAVE to deal Soto at a fire sale price.

So, if the league wants the Padres to meet the rules, they just have to block any adds that take the Padres again out of compliance. League does have the power to approve or disapprove all contracts. League does not care if the Padres field a competitive team since the Padres got into this situation by their own mismanagement of the finances. SD needs to work out of the problem and not rely on concessions from MLB.

Good chance the Padres already know the rules of engagement with the league and financial rules (maybe there are some internal financial hurdles also) and will voluntarily not make moves to go over the limits (whatever they really are).

 

Quote from BoosterSD on December 5, 2023, 7:08 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 5, 2023, 6:27 am

Not sure this changes the landscape. Padres with Soto are under the $200MM mark. So, they have made the target already and don’t HAVE to deal Soto at a fire sale price.

 

The gist of the article was that the MLB office will be OK with a higher payroll as long as it starts to reduce down over an extended time frame, which it will as younger players come in and replace some older players. The article also mentioned, that if MLB blocked/prevented SD spending what SD feels comfortable with, that the MLBPA could get involved. As the MLBPA is ecstatic with a team like SD spending money on veteran players.

The article also noted that SD could go as high as $220M± this season in cash payroll. With SD sitting around the $190M including Soto, giving Preller up to possibly $3oM to deploy on SP and other needs.

Depending on what prospects that Preller is willing to part with, maybe a trade for Burnes and Cabrera from MIA. The two combined would be about $17M, leaving about $13M for bench players. Plus, minor trades of Crone, Grisham, and/or Kim could bring some players back, and free up additional dollars.

A rotation of Burnes, Musgrove, Darvish, and Cabrera would be enough to get you to the playoffs.

If that article is a reliable source, it may mean that Preller is not as handcuffed as many are making out. Meaning if Preller doesnt get his asking price for Soto, he will be in SD Brown to start the season.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 5, 2023, 7:15 am

Waiting for the Ohtani domino to drop so all the other moves can happen.

Best case scenario for us is Ohtani signs with Tor.

No way the Yanks won't then counter with Soto or Bellinger.

Bellingers recent ups and downs are risky and will cost them $250 mil or more.

Plus if they sign him i doubt they can get Soto as a free agent.

Ohtani to Tor. pretty much guarantees Soto to NYY or we keep him....Cashman can't miss the playoffs again AND not getting Soto will be the reason fans/Org gives if it happens.

IMO of course