Forum
Forum Navigation
OFFSEASON 2023-24
#651 · December 5, 2023, 8:01 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on December 5, 2023, 7:15 amWaiting for the Ohtani domino to drop so all the other moves can happen.
Best case scenario for us is Ohtani signs with Tor.
No way the Yanks won't then counter with Soto or Bellinger.
Bellingers recent ups and downs are risky and will cost them $250 mil or more.
Plus if they sign him i doubt they can get Soto as a free agent.
Ohtani to Tor. pretty much guarantees Soto to NYY or we keep him....Cashman can't miss the playoffs again AND not getting Soto will be the reason fans/Org gives if it happens.
IMO of course
Do think the NYY will break and offer a better package for Soto since they are not in on Ohtani and don’t seem interested in Bellinger. They were 7 games out of the Wild Card and 19 games out of the AL East (4th place) and well behind TOR. How can Cashman survive in NY without a series of major upgrades and making the playoffs (probably needs to get to the World Series). If TOR (who won 89 games and has a plus pitching staff) adds Ohtani … the pressure on NYY has to be intense.
Even the alternative of TOR not signing Ohtani … clearly they have made it clear they want a major LHH power hitter and maybe COULD make a more compelling offer if they included Tiedemann and one of Kukluchi or Manoah who would help the Padres in 2024 … arguably much better than any combo of 7 NYY players being discussed … even that possibility might push the NYY to quickly up the offer trying to get a deal before TOR steps in.
So we wait for Ohtani to sign … maybe this weekend? Does not appear other teams are seriously in on Soto … and expect Preller has already spoken with TOR (as with NYY) so a Soto could fall quickly afterwards.
Then a good chance Preller has had is discussions with FA (other trades) … so follow-up moves could happen quickly and may depend on the return players in the Soto trade.
Most seem to think Ohtani is down to TOR, LAA, LAD, SF … others “interested” but not playing at that $500MM+ level. Personally rooting for the LAA to retain him but anyone other than the LAD.
#652 · December 5, 2023, 8:23 am
I have heard that ATL may be making a serious run at Ohtani as well. While their location may not be optimal, they do have a very good young core signed for an eternity. Giving ATL something that Ohtani wants, which is a continual run at the playoffs.
IMO ATL is the premier spot for Ohtani as a Padre fan. Only going to face him a max of 6 games as a DH, and maybe once or twice as a SP, until the playoffs.
Plus, it would slam TOR and NYY into a frenzy for Soto.
#653 · December 5, 2023, 9:41 am
Seattle and SF have been mysteriously quiet the past week or so. I know Seattle traded Kelenic to Atlanta but he was never going to be he impact bat he was hyped to be when he was acquired from the Mets. Since Seattle seems to be not in it for Ohtani or Soto, DiPoto will likely try to sign FA's Bellinger and Lee first so he doesn't have to give up his pitching assets. Failing to sign one or both, he might then follow thru on the rumored trade with Tampa Bay for Arozarena and Paredes.
SF, on the other hand, really wants to make a splash but their roster is aging and lacks top end talent. Could they be the surprise team in the Ohtani sweepstakes? They certainly could be all in on Yamamoto and wouldn't rule them out on Bellinger. Don't think, however, Padres would trade Soto to SF - don't match up well with what SF could offer and very unlikely trade Soto within the division.
So while the Yankees and Toronto get a lot of the press, watch out for these two teams - plus the Cubs! Hoping that the Dodgers get shut out of all these top tier signings!
#654 · December 5, 2023, 10:04 am
Quote from Randy Manese on December 5, 2023, 9:41 amSeattle and SF have been mysteriously quiet the past week or so. I know Seattle traded Kelenic to Atlanta but he was never going to be he impact bat he was hyped to be when he was acquired from the Mets. Since Seattle seems to be not in it for Ohtani or Soto, DiPoto will likely try to sign FA's Bellinger and Lee first so he doesn't have to give up his pitching assets. Failing to sign one or both, he might then follow thru on the rumored trade with Tampa Bay for Arozarena and Paredes.
SF, on the other hand, really wants to make a splash but their roster is aging and lacks top end talent. Could they be the surprise team in the Ohtani sweepstakes? They certainly could be all in on Yamamoto and wouldn't rule them out on Bellinger. Don't think, however, Padres would trade Soto to SF - don't match up well with what SF could offer and very unlikely trade Soto within the division.
So while the Yankees and Toronto get a lot of the press, watch out for these two teams - plus the Cubs! Hoping that the Dodgers get shut out of all these top tier signings!
I'm not sure anyone can label SF as a "surprise" team in the race for Ohtani. They're right alongside the Cubs among the likeliest and most talked about landing spots outside of LA.
#655 · December 5, 2023, 10:33 am
I just need Ohtani to sign to get other things moving at this point. I know every MLB off-season is slow. This might be the slowest I can remember. I thought the winter meetings might help. The biggest free agent news to come out of the meetings so far is that Erick Fedde might have a deal with the Mets or White Sox. It's just endless idle speculation waiting for the dam to break.
#656 · December 5, 2023, 12:38 pm
Isn't speculation the name of the game? All us die-hard Padres fans don't want Ohtani to end up with the Dodgers, so rooting very hard for the Blue Jays to close the deal. What if that happened and Bellinger signs soon thereafter with the Mariners plus Yamamoto goes to the Red Sox? How does the Padres ask in trade with the Yankees for Soto look now? Pressure to win in New York is career-ending if you can't deliver a playoff caliber, make it a World Series caliber, team year after year. Preller is right to wait it out, however, he can't wait too long or the Dodgers will start picking off the FA SP or those available in trade to fill out their rotation. Who blinks first - I think it is the Yankees.
#657 · December 5, 2023, 1:39 pm
RUMOR: Padres are in discussion with Cleveland concerning Shane Bieber. When healthy a significant pitcher ... only one year control at about $12MM.
If Cleveland is trying to shed some payroll (likely they are) and they have a history of dealing with SD ... could come together. At this point, probably not going to require a significant prospect if the Padres take the salary.
In this market $12MM is a fair price to this level of gamble.
Note he was effective in the 1st half of 2023 but ended up on the 60 day IL with elbow inflammation BUT returned from rehab in SEPT for a couple of starts (not effective at that point). So, yes a gamble but with big upside. Given the quality of players being signed as FA at $12MM the upside should be worth the gamble. It is a bit of a bonus that it is only a one year deal.
#658 · December 5, 2023, 2:36 pm
Quote from fenn68 on December 5, 2023, 1:39 pmRUMOR: Padres are in discussion with Cleveland concerning Shane Bieber. When healthy a significant pitcher ... only one year control at about $12MM.
If Cleveland is trying to shed some payroll (likely they are) and they have a history of dealing with SD ... could come together. At this point, probably not going to require a significant prospect if the Padres take the salary.
Would mention that CIN has also inquired into Bieber. Although that was last week, so did they lose interest or could not get together with CLE for the right pieces.
So there may be some competition for Bieber, still shouldnt cost an A level prospect IMO. Although, you could add a little higher prospect and/or an additional prospect and have CLE cover some of the cost.
That would protect SD's limited cash assets should Bieber not be able to finish the season, and SD needs to make an in season addition.
#659 · December 5, 2023, 2:44 pm
OK:
-33 … deal Soto to NYY
+ 3 … add King from NYY (2 years control)
+12 … add Bieber from Cleveland (1 year control) for a minor prospect
+7 … re-sign Sanchez for 2nd catcher
+12 … sign Lee for CF
Eats only 1 MM into the $11MM under the $200MM theoretical bogey
-5 … include Grisham in the NYY trade
so, $15MM still to deploy on whatever is a priority to upgrade but now with a pretty decent #1-4 SP.
Gambles yes but could work to create a playoff roster.
#660 · December 5, 2023, 2:52 pm
No luck for the Padres in the Draft Lottery … did not make the top 6 so will draft #25.