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OFFSEASON 2023-24
#311 · November 4, 2023, 9:36 pm
With money off the books, my guess is that Preller is going to try to entice some bench pieces to sign, i.e. Sanchez and possibly Profar. If he can get Sanchez to come in at $4M or under and Profar for around $5.5, I think that strengthens the bench behind Campusano and whoever is in the OF alongside Tatis, Jr. - both seem to want to stay in San Diego. With either Marcano, Batten or Rosario in the INF and Azocar in the OF we have the makings of a decent bench not counting rookies who are trying to get an everyday OF spot - don't think any of the young guys (Marsee, Pauley, Merrill) will be brought up just to sit on the bench.
Still a lot of salary/CBT to drop if trade/or non-tender Soto, Carpenter (sure to be included in the Soto deal), Grisham, Nola, Hill, Morejon or Barlow for which money could be redirected for SP. Remember at one time we thought we had a top notch core of young pitchers in Gore, Paddack and Patino but none, so far, has ascended to all-star level. For that reason, most of our young pitchers who showed well last year will continue to hone their craft in the minors for at least one more year, with possibly the exception of Iriarte, who has to be protected on the 40 man and has the arm to be an innings eater in the pen or possibly a 6th SP. The key is what are we going to get back for Soto in trade - needs to happen fairly early in the process before FA market dries up.
40 man roster deadline is 15 Nov; official non-tender deadline is 17 Nov, however, decisions on who to non-tender usually happen well before the 40 man, so the key date will be 15 Nov for 40 man roster protection before the Rule 5 draft on 6 Dec. Minor league rosters also will also have to be locked in also before the Rule 5. Padres have a ton of eligible Rule 5 candidates but Iriarte and Valenzuela are the only two likely to be protected on the 40 man.
#312 · November 5, 2023, 1:20 am
The roster now sits at 34 … and frankly see maybe 4-6 that really are not ML quality even for the bench / pen. So, a LOT of room for roster adds.
Rule 5 protects … not seeing much beyond Iriate (although expect Padres see some pitcher that might be in the mix). Given his 2023, hard to see some team selecting (and keeping) Valenzuela on their 26 man so Padres may pass on protecting him.
However, that level of open spots might be useful in signing some “marginal” FA who are on the bubble between a minor league make good deal and a ML deal.
#313 · November 5, 2023, 1:34 am
I will add a different wrinkle in the thought process of FA signings this winter. The 2027 payroll … a long way out so why? Well if the $200MM payroll level does not move up much (and Siedler suggested it would not), the Padres have committed $145.6MM to 7 players (Machado, Bogaerts, Tatis, Musgrove, Darvish, Cronenworth, and Suarez) leaving only about $54.4MM for the remaining 19 on the 26 man roster.
First that makes it not feasible to extend Soto at around $40MM and still field a competitive 26 man roster. However, does make me wonder if that also elevates Kim to a trade chip as a FA after 2024 and if he holds his 2023 performance he will command a big / long term contract. Does not save much in 2023 ($8MM) but does potentially get a decent return in a trade and allows Cronenworth to move back to 2B.
Also, does that future also preclude and FA signings on big money / long term deals? Will the Padres be focused on lower cost, 1-2 year deals?
Padre prospects really need to develop and produce going forward offset the big money on those 7 long term deals.
#314 · November 5, 2023, 10:14 am
The big mistake(s), to me, were the extensions of Suarez and Cronenworth. Suarez' extension, at the time, did not seem so bad when we had a larger budget and we faced the loss of Hader; unfortunately, he was injured for most of the 2023 season, so we are not as comfortable of him taking over the closer role and dominating as he did in 2022. Suarez could still be a vital cog on the team and we'll definitely need him to perform very well for the Padres to make the playoffs. Is he worth 10M for each of the next 2 years and 16M for the 2 after that? His CBT is 9.2M over that period of time.
With regard to Cronenworth, it's almost like the Hosmer/Myers salary albatross all over again. Padres fans love Croney because he gives everything he has and has been a clutch hitter over the 4 years he's been with the team, However, those moments have become less frequent and more far between to where we are stuck with a player who seems to be on the downhill side of his career yet has the big salaries to come. Will moving him back to 2nd base cure that - probably not. You have to hope he stops hitting pop-ups and fly balls to medium deep parts of the OF and falls back to his the line-drive stroke we saw much more of in 2020 and 2021 - that may be too much to ask but that's what we need to squeeze value out of him. In the meantime, Kim has passed him by as a more valuable piece to the team dynamic but we might have to let him go because we can't afford him due to Cronenworth's contract. If we can move either Suarez or Cronenworth (very tough to do) that would help the budget situation, but they now become the team's burden for the next several years like Hosmer and Myers were. According to Cot's contracts, Cronenworth has a relatively low CBT this year (4.225M) but then becomes 11,429M for the next 6 years through the 2030 season. What was Preller thinking? Can we have Cronenworth mop-up some games on the mound that are out of hand? Maybe an additional way to get some value out of him.
#315 · November 5, 2023, 11:56 am
Last winter’s signings / extensions were ill advised … not necessarily the players but more the cost / duration component and the number of deals they are locked into.
Beyond Cronenworth and Suarez … and the unnecessary signing of Bogaerts for the next decade … I question the deal with Darvish (who had been showing some signs of age) for 6 years until he is 41. Then, I know I am in the minority, but would not have given Machado that early extension (let him opt out if he wanted) and if he did negotiate then. 11 years / $350MM until he is 41 (note: less a Machado long term fan than most). Can debate the pros and cons of each but the problem is they signed 7 and that by itself is just wrong.
Basically OK with the earlier signings of Tatis and Musgrove.
This is hard to say but have to blame Peter Siedler a lot for this developing problem … at first good he opened the payroll to push for a winning team … but whatever his “plan” was it was ill conceived. He is the decision maker and had to be approving these big signings off a financial plan he approved (believed). I guess he too had some level input on the value of the players getting the big deals. Best guess he believed he would get some great cash flow by going deep in the playoffs consistently to offset the commitments … did not consider the consequences of that not happening along with the other cash flow issues.
Then Preller with license to spend appears not have cared about the future (maybe figured he would be fired if did not win now) … made some questionable player / roster evaluations … to try to pull in some high profile players to win now using long term deals. Convinced Siedler.
Short term thinking … if fails … will cause a long run of suboptimal teams for a long time.
Only hope going forward is that a LOT of the prospects develop into low cost impact players … history of Padre prospects makes that hard to envision.
#316 · November 5, 2023, 5:38 pm
Quote from fenn68 on November 5, 2023, 11:56 amLast winter’s signings / extensions were ill advised … not necessarily the players but more the cost / duration component and the number of deals they are locked into.
Beyond Cronenworth and Suarez … and the unnecessary signing of Bogaerts for the next decade … I question the deal with Darvish (who had been showing some signs of age) for 6 years until he is 41. Then, I know I am in the minority, but would not have given Machado that early extension (let him opt out if he wanted) and if he did negotiate then. 11 years / $350MM until he is 41 (note: less a Machado long term fan than most). Can debate the pros and cons of each but the problem is they signed 7 and that by itself is just wrong.
Basically OK with the earlier signings of Tatis and Musgrove.
This is hard to say but have to blame Peter Siedler a lot for this developing problem … at first good he opened the payroll to push for a winning team … but whatever his “plan” was it was ill conceived. He is the decision maker and had to be approving these big signings off a financial plan he approved (believed). I guess he too had some level input on the value of the players getting the big deals. Best guess he believed he would get some great cash flow by going deep in the playoffs consistently to offset the commitments … did not consider the consequences of that not happening along with the other cash flow issues.
Then Preller with license to spend appears not have cared about the future (maybe figured he would be fired if did not win now) … made some questionable player / roster evaluations … to try to pull in some high profile players to win now using long term deals. Convinced Siedler.
Short term thinking … if fails … will cause a long run of suboptimal teams for a long time.
Only hope going forward is that a LOT of the prospects develop into low cost impact players … history of Padre prospects makes that hard to envision.
Totally unnecessary!
Without that commitment, we'd be talking about a Soto extension instead of trading him for unproven youth.
#317 · November 5, 2023, 7:01 pm
Tatis and Kim win Gold Gloves.
Congratulations to both!
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#318 · November 6, 2023, 8:52 am
Looking at the current roster ... needed to establish a "you are here" baseline ... one that tries to minimize the short term bias (good or bad) from 2023 so looks at (for the offense) the 3 year player performance (2021-23) ... clearly individuals in 2024 maybe be better (or worse) but that is a different level of projection. So for a presumed 9 man line-up using wRC+:
155 ... Soto
134 ... Tatis
131 ... Machado
127 ... Bogaerts
111 ... Carpenter
107 ... Cronenworth
102 ... Kim
100 ... Campusano
93 ... Grisham
So, as a baseline that 9 is about 18% ABOVE AVERAGE and lays out as a pretty deep line-up above average. That is playoff quality. Sure, can easily dump on Carpenter going forward but Tatis in 2021 was substantially better than his comeback year in 2023, Machado's 2023 was low for his history ... basically can justify an offensive projection better than those 3 year averages for the impact bats. Maybe Carpenter and Grisham can be "covered" by the rest of the line-up, so not a major concern. Leaves tinkering for the back-ups as the only need.
Pitching on the other hand is a concern. The debate may sit on the impact of the offense (as it is) carrying the team to the playoffs and cover whatever pitching the Padres end up with. Remember TEX and AZ made the World Series without the deepest pitching staffs. With maybe $18MM yet to be deployed (given the roster and $200MM ceiling) ... Padres could add some "decent" pitching for the first four months then pivot at the trade deadline (if needed) with a trade or a key call-up (will Snelling or Bergert or Iriate or Mazur be the needed upgrade after 4 months of development in the minors?).
Could this be a strategy that holds onto Soto and only adding a couple of veteran SP (like Lugo / Wacha last winter) ... hit their way to wins over the inferior teams (and playoff contention) in the first four months and re-evaluate at the trade deadline? Maybe ... as a rental ... add an impact SP? Take that strategy and they also make the $200MM budget ceiling and are not "forced" to sign expensive FA on long term contract (and have already addressed that issue going forward).
#319 · November 6, 2023, 10:55 am
Managerial dominoes start to fall:
Cleveland hires Steven Vogt
NYM hire Mendoza
Cubs (in a surprise) hire Craig Counsel to the highest managerial contact ever ... and they have a manager in David Ross and unknown what is happening with him. New candidate for the Padres?
#320 · November 6, 2023, 11:00 am
Counsel contract rumored to be 8M per year - highest he ever got as a player was 3.167M. Of course, Bochy's highest salary as a player was with the Padres at $135,000. David Ross was/is very popular with his players and was very patient with what top management was doing to reconstruct the team. Still think Shildt is the guy.