Forum
Forum Navigation
OFFSEASON 2023-24
#301 · November 3, 2023, 9:09 am
Beginning to connect more dots and locking in on that $200MM payroll as a cap for the 26 man roster.
Very early in the 2023 season, Siedler was reported to have said that the 2023 is NOT sustainable going forward and suggested the Padres will more likely settle in around #10 in payroll
Looking at 2023 payroll for the 26 man (per Cot’s):
$248.9MM (#3) … Padres
$195.8MM (#9) … Rangers
$187.9MM (#10) … Giants
$184.2MM (#11) … Cubs
So, Siedler’s comments coupled with 2023 for other teams would be consistent with a $200MM payroll and ending up around #10 in MLB … that reduction of $50MM. Layer on all the recent commentary on the late season loan to cover operating expenses and MLB NOT covering the Padres for the lack of a TV contract … a more compelling argument that $200MM is a cap.
So, assuming that, my calculation of the 2024 26 man roster payroll … without Wacha, Martinez, and Lugo but with Carpenter (all the option guys) … will sit at $181-2MM. So not a lot of money for adds via FA unless we see some payroll dump trades / DFA / non-tenders. $18-19MM does not go far in covering three SP and an upgraded bench / DH.
Soto (clearly at $33MM), Grisham, Barlow, Nola, Morejon are all in jeopardy as being movable and above league minimum. Kim also should be at risk. However, because of their contracts, Machado, Bogaerts, Cronenworth, Tatis, Musgrove, Darvish, Suarez, and Carpenter will be hard to move and clear their contract with any quality return.
However, if they clear the first five they would save maybe $45-50MM added to the $18MM and create a bucket of money in the mid-$60MM range … and that could fill a lot of the needs … but relying heavily on the remaining “stars” to produce and at least a modicum of success from the FA and some prospects developing at the ML level.
Should be interesting to see how Preller navigates this.
#302 · November 3, 2023, 9:36 am
Side note before trying to trade off any of the players under long term contract (assuming any team would want them AND their contract) … consider:
Full N0 Trade Clauses: Bogaerts; Darvish, Machado; Musgrove (23-26); Tatis (21-28).
Limited No Trade Clause: Cronenworth (8 teams annually)
No restriction: Suarez
Sure can trade them with their agreement … but that usually comes with other concessions by the acquiring team.
#303 · November 3, 2023, 2:38 pm
No surprise:
Matt Carpenter has exercised the $5.5MM player option in his contract with the Padres
#304 · November 3, 2023, 10:24 pm
Ugh....
Really need to trade as many of Soto, Suarez, Kim, Grisham, Barlow as possible. Clear the decks, fill in around the other stars.
Jeremy Hill has reacted to this post.
Jeremy Hill
#305 · November 4, 2023, 8:35 am
Another consideration on 2024 payroll should be the Luxury Tax ... "resetting" below the threshold will restore a lot of positions in the draft and secure better draft selection for QO players.
Beyond my 26 man Cash payroll estimate of $181MM (below the $200MM assumed ceiling) ... that roster would deliver a $231MM AAV/Luxury Tax payroll which is UNDER the initial $237MM threshold for 2024.
So with some "smart" roster management ... think the Padres can meet the cashflow requirements, dip below the Luxury Tax and improve the future draft status, and ... yes ... still make the playoffs. Would help if they had a bit of luck with the players.
Padres have to rely on (expect) better offense from Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts, Cronenworth which would allow them to trade Soto for league minimum / prospect types. Take the $33MM ticketed for Soto and deploy that on 2 "good" SP and some smaller LF/DH upgrades. That roster could get them to the playoffs. Remember AZ made the playoffs with only 84 wins. Need a little more ... move Barlow, Grisham, Hill, Nola (some combo but all would land another $15MM to work with).
That should get them into the playoffs (or in the hunt) ... then at the trade deadline make the call on some "prospects" that may boost the team on a call-up (Snelling, Pauley, Marsee, Merrill, Iriate, Bergert?) or make a "rental" deal to fill the gaps for a better playoff roster.
#306 · November 4, 2023, 1:00 pm
Looks like the salary for Yamamoto is now in the Snell/Nola range so virtually no chance Padres sign him. A couple of other less pricey arms might be available from Japan, Shoto Imanaga and Yariel Rodriguez, but he SP market is going to be expensive even with Rodriguez and Stroman joining the pool. 16M for Wacha starting to look like a bargain.
#307 · November 4, 2023, 1:45 pm
Quote from Randy Manese on November 4, 2023, 1:00 pmLooks like the salary for Yamamoto is now in the Snell/Nola range so virtually no chance Padres sign him. A couple of other less pricey arms might be available from Japan, Shoto Imanaga and Yariel Rodriguez, but he SP market is going to be expensive even with Rodriguez and Stroman joining the pool. 16M for Wacha starting to look like a bargain.
Agree ... especially when the Padres NEED 3 SP. It is a supply and demand world and even with all the injury potential 2 years / $32MM ($16MM AAV) is beginning to seem right ... especially being able to lock that via the Club Option and not have to negotiate with FA.
Beginning to see some comments that a Lugo could get 3 years ... so maybe that is also the FA potential for Wacha and being able to get him for only 2 given age / injury history / with prospects coming is in itself a value plus.
Don't see that level for Martinez but have to think Preller will try to work out a new deal before FA ... something between the Club Option level and the Player Option level ... again maybe 2 years guaranteed.
___________________________________________________________________________
Would make Preller's work this winter a lot easier if they had #3 and #4 SP locked down with Wacha and Martinez before FA. Yes, not the greatest but pretty good considering the payroll situation. He could scramble with some league minimum types for #5-6-7 then focus on the position players / payroll cap.
Randy Manese has reacted to this post.
Randy Manese
#308 · November 4, 2023, 5:48 pm
Hoping we can get Martinez for 10.5 -11M over 3 years; hasn't proved he can go the distance as a SP but his value to the Padres is probably more than others in the important swing role he occupies so willing to go a little over what he might get in the open market.
#309 · November 4, 2023, 7:59 pm
Reporting is that Padres declined both Wacha's and Martinez' options - don't know what to make of that. Best chance to sign one of 3, is likely Martinez; Wacha likely gone in a seller's market for at least 16M. Could sneak in with Lugo, but length of contract might be the issue. Let's see what happens next.
#310 · November 4, 2023, 8:46 pm
Quote from Randy Manese on November 4, 2023, 7:59 pmReporting is that Padres declined both Wacha's and Martinez' options - don't know what to make of that. Best chance to sign one of 3, is likely Martinez; Wacha likely gone in a seller's market for at least 16M. Could sneak in with Lugo, but length of contract might be the issue. Let's see what happens next.
A bit surprised on Wacha but not on Martinez. Declining both can set up speculation in a lot of different directions starting with that $200MM budget may just be firmer that some may have hoped.
Preller will have to scramble to find three SP … probably at a lower price point that can be as successful as Lugo, Wacha, Martinez were in 2023. Maybe he is hoping that they will not get great traction as FA and will re-sign later at a lower price? Not a great gamble in my mind.
On the other hand … if they do deal Soto (and others) they fall way below the presumed budget and COULD continue their strategy of going big for stars (long contracts) and pay $30MM for Yamamoto to be a top of the rotation impact arm (or even re-sign Snell) to create an elite #1-2-3 rotation (best for the playoff runs) and go low end on the rest of the SP. If they went that route they would still have money under the $200MM to add some offense for LF/DH/bench along with low end SP.
No idea what is in Preller’s mind at this point.