Quote from dusty on November 6, 2023, 12:10 pm

I think Schildt is the guy as well. I think Soto stays at the very least until the AS Break (depending on their record). I think they trade Grisham (saving about 3-4 mil after factoring in the reliever’s salary and DFA Nola and possibly Barlow as well (depending on how Niebla feels about his performance) and who they think will be able to fill the bullpen (Morejon and minors arms/MLFA). Hill I see staying for another year. Can see them bringing in Lee to patrol CF and a possible trade of Kim for Burnes. Bring back Cooper to play first possibly Voit as well

Rotation becomes Burnes, Musgrove, Darvish, Avila, Minor League Free agent/Prospect.

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 6, 2023, 1:07 pm

Unless there is a "mystery candidate" for the Padres' manager ... seems we are down to Shildt, Flaherty, and Gil ... yet hearing that we will not get a decision until later this week.

More dissent in the FO on the hiring? Preller has had years of working with Shildt and Flaherty so that call should not be that hard. Gil is the outsider but that call should be pretty straight forward with him vs the winner of the Shildt - Flaherty face-off.

Maybe the Business side wants the cheapest on a one year deal and Preller wants the most expensive on a 10 year deal? Irrelevant who is better (if anyone could tell).

Quote from fenn68 on November 6, 2023, 1:41 pm

Jeremiah Estrada (25 year old RP) was claimed by the Padres off waivers from the Cubs.

Padres have the roster space (although they did drop RP Hernandez) ... and Estrada has a couple of minor league options and less than one year of ML service time.

Estrada has a career sidetracked by injury (including elbow surgery) and actually has pitched little but does have a big FB and quality change ... but control issues. 2023 was not good ML/AAA but 2022 was very encouraging. He moved from A+ to AA to AAA to ML. In the minors, 48 innings with an impressive 78 strikeouts ... 1.30 ERA / 1.06 WHIP. Only 5 innings but 8 strikeouts ... 3.16 ERA.

Probably goes to AAA to start ... but a low cost / low risk pick-up for a open 40 man roster and brings some upside.

Quote from fenn68 on November 6, 2023, 5:47 pm

MLBTR just came out with their Top 50 FA with estimated contracts and best guess teams to sign them (3 different forecasters). Of interest to Padres fans:

#4 Snell ... $200MM/7 years ... PHIL/BOST/LAD

#8 Hader ... $110MM/6 years ... TEX/TEX/TEX

#15 Lee (CF from Korea) ... $50MM/5 years ... SD/SD/TOR .... that might work as a CF upgrade and the budget issue if that $10MM AAV is offset by non-tendering Grisham ($5MM) and back loading the contract to lower the 2024 amount ... net impact on 2024 cashflow could be minimal.

#19 Lugo ... $42MM/3 years ... AZ/STL/CINN

#24 Wacha ... $36MM/3 years ... CWS/ATL/CINN

#28 Yariel Rodriguez ... $32MM/4 years ($8MM AAV)  ... CWS/CWS/SD ... Cuban star who has been pitching in Japan ... could be a backload candidate to help the 2024 cashflow

#32 Martinez ... $25/2 years ($12.5MM AAV) ... STL/SD/TOR

#47 Junis ... $15/2 years ($7.5MM AAV)... SD/AZ/SD ...

Not likely the go for all three pitchers: Rodriguez; Martinez; and Junis but might land one. The Lee option (given the dropping of Grisham and some backload) might be the best move under the assumption that Lee's defense is a plus and can't hit worse than Grisham (maybe a lot better) plus lock in CF for some time allowing Marsee, Pauley work on LF/DH/ back-up OF going forward post Soto in 2025.

Note that Rodriguez and Junis have been primarily relief pitchers ... so the issue with SP still would remain.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on November 6, 2023, 7:32 pm

Didn't think the Cubs were serious in their interest of trading for Soto, but with the snatching of Counsell away from the Brewers at the highest salary ever paid for a baseball manager, my thinking has changed.  They have a decent farm system and are stacked up at the top with candidates in the OF plus several decent pitching prospects.  Could we get their #1 prospect - Pete Crow-Armstrong?  If not, I like #4 Kevin Alcantara over #3 Owen Caissie because of his better running speed and defensive abilities plus #8 Jackson Ferris (LHP) or #5 Ben Brown (RHP) in the package.  Let's see if the Cubs are really going after him or looking to bring back Bellinger.

I still feel we can get the best package out of the Yankees and I do think we will trade Soto in November/December vice hold onto him until mid-season.

Quote from Randy Manese on November 6, 2023, 9:31 pm

If Toronto is our major competitor for Lee (besides our own budgetary restrictions), I think he ranks below their desire for Candelario and possibly Soler before they would go for Lee.  Lee's contract looks manageable plus what a draw he and Kim would be for the Padres to open the season against the Dodgers in Korea!

I know many think Ohtani is a lock for the Dodgers, however, I'm still thinking Mariners or Giants.  This could drag out for a few months, which actually would help others trying to sign SP's.  It also would give the Padres time to work out the best deal for Soto if teams like the Yankees or Cubs are out of the running early for Ohtani.

Quote from fenn68 on November 7, 2023, 1:02 am

Quote from Randy Manese on November 6, 2023, 7:32 pm

Didn't think the Cubs were serious in their interest of trading for Soto, but with the snatching of Counsell away from the Brewers at the highest salary ever paid for a baseball manager, my thinking has changed.  They have a decent farm system and are stacked up at the top with candidates in the OF plus several decent pitching prospects.  Could we get their #1 prospect - Pete Crow-Armstrong?  If not, I like #4 Kevin Alcantara over #3 Owen Caissie because of his better running speed and defensive abilities plus #8 Jackson Ferris (LHP) or #5 Ben Brown (RHP) in the package.  Let's see if the Cubs are really going after him or looking to bring back Bellinger.

I still feel we can get the best package out of the Yankees and I do think we will trade Soto in November/December vice hold onto him until mid-season.

Cubs may be for real as a contender for Soto and that makes for some enhanced competition with the NYY … better for the Padres. If Bellinger is the alternative his projected 12 year big money deal can only help up the value of the one year for Soto even at $33MM.

The Cubs player that appeals to me is RHP Cade Horton (their #2 prospect). 22 and sprinted into AA with some strong performance in 2023. 1st round pick in 2022 and 2023 was his first season. Given the Padres need for multiple SP … Horton (like Snelling) could be legit factors at some point in 2024. If they sign Lee and with the payroll space opened up by trading Soto, they can easily sign a stop game LF relatively cheaply and wait on Pauley, Marsee, and Bush to develop to take over LF. That is probably easier to manage than filling out the pitching.

Let’s get ready and get Horton and one of the OF although somewhat interacted by their #6 SS Shaw … kid can hit (and I like position players that can hit). He could be a super utility type or a LF conversion … maybe not 2024 but soon.

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 7, 2023, 1:15 am

Quote from Randy Manese on November 6, 2023, 9:31 pm

If Toronto is our major competitor for Lee (besides our own budgetary restrictions), I think he ranks below their desire for Candelario and possibly Soler before they would go for Lee.  Lee's contract looks manageable plus what a draw he and Kim would be for the Padres to open the season against the Dodgers in Korea!

I know many think Ohtani is a lock for the Dodgers, however, I'm still thinking Mariners or Giants.  This could drag out for a few months, which actually would help others trying to sign SP's.  It also would give the Padres time to work out the best deal for Soto if teams like the Yankees or Cubs are out of the running early for Ohtani.

Hope they land Lee early in the process and move Grisham. An early deal gives the Padres a better position in make a call on a Soto deal. I might not try to hold too long on a deal (if a decent one is on the table) … other than the risk of the deal falling apart as the other team(s) go a different direction … moving the $33MM early given the budget constraints opens the door for other FA pursuits before they are off the board. Looking at putting together the best 26 man under the budget cap. $33MM probably can land two good SP and two good position players when coupled with their current position Nader $200MM … and all likely on shorter term deals.

Preller usually established a “value” for players … so if an early offer is close … given the circumstances might be better off not dragging this out for a marginal better return.

Quote from fenn68 on November 7, 2023, 1:21 am

Heard that Martinez switched agents to Boras … if so, don’t expect him to be re-signed or signed early by the Padres as Boras drags the negotiations out with teams given the shortage of quality pitching on the market.