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OFFSEASON 2023-24
#1681 · February 16, 2024, 4:07 pm
No question that Kim is currently our best defensive option at SS; the question is whether he has any growth left as a hitter or at least will he maintain what we saw prior to his injury at the end of the year. Although some experts are predicting a regression, if the Padres believe he can at least maintain what he showed for the most part last year, then I'm thinking Kim is looking for a contract very similar to what Lee got in SF. I think SF overpaid for Lee, an OF with little power and no SB prowess, but a CBT of 18.8M per year for a starting SS who could hit 15-20 HRs and steal 30-40 bases would be an acceptable going rate. This is just 10M than he is currently getting, so it should not place the budget in jeopardy if the contract begins in 2025. I think Kim will age well and his contract should be about 3-5 years with a possible team options depending on how soon they predict De Vries will be ready to compete.
On the other hand, I'm not sure what the debate is on Cronenworth. Is it that if he plays 1b, he won't hit as well than if he plays 2b? Didn't Croney start out his career as a replacement for an injured Hosmer at 1b and do very well in that position? Why can't he hit like a good 2nd baseman playing 1b? We're not expecting Pete Alonso or Freddie Freeman, but can he hit at least at replacement level for a 2b man? RBI don't have to come on HRs, just clutch hitting and that's what I'd like to see him do again, like 2021 or 2022. Plus, as noted above, he will be one of the best 1b men defensively in the league and save many a game with his glove. His contract seems like a bad one, but how he performs will determine whether it is good or bad.
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#1682 · February 16, 2024, 4:28 pm
Looks like Cora considers Duran to be their leadoff hitter. Reality or just trying to push the price up. In either case, might cost a lot more than Frelick if we're still interested in adding another OF who can play CF.
#1683 · February 16, 2024, 4:35 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on February 16, 2024, 2:06 pmQuote from BoosterSD on February 16, 2024, 11:23 amI guess my main issue with this whole INF situation is Crone staying at 1B. That is to me, a square peg in a round hole. Even if he was the best 1B in MLB defensively, it is a waste due to his bat. There is little value with Crone at 1B offensively.
I guess best situation is he does well this season, and he can be moved to a team that needs a 2B, and we can figure out how to get a more typical bat at 1B. And maybe/hopefully that is Morterella or Pauley.
I too would prefer Crone at 2B but they do like his defense at 1B so he could be more of a Brandon Belt type 1B than a Adrian Gonzalez type maybe?
Grace, Snow, Joyner … all defensive first 1B with less than 1B power during most of the careers. So Cronenworth is similar having the defense and lacking the power … the only issue I have is has ability to have a plus OBP like the others … think the rest of the line-up has enough power. More important is that … for now … no proven LOWER COST alternatives … so just work around that.
#1684 · February 16, 2024, 4:50 pm
Other than the talent of Kim (even if he regresses a bit his defense at SS will be enough to justify a deal) … Padres don’t have a plus defensive SS in the queue near term and likely don’t want go hunting for one … or “downgrade” SS with Merrill or the return of Bogaerts. Bogaerts has value at 2B and betting Merrill is going to be an impact in the OF for years … where the Padres also lack depth near term.
Would add that IF the Padres are really uncertain about the future revenue streams but are comfortable with the current target range … creating some certainty in payroll for the next 5+ years with Kim (added to the other certain contracts) … might just help their planning. In the near term Kim becomes the last big contract … Padres rely on the farm system (low end FA) to fill out the roster.
Guessing Kim would get a bit more than Lee just based on ML record and being a SS … maybe $20MMish … 7 years?
#1685 · February 17, 2024, 3:37 am
As it looks … maybe very little (if any) pitching will be added to the current roster … assuming so, took a look at the pieces returned in the Soto/Grisham trade and somewhat optimistic.
Before discussing the pitchers … Higashioka who seemed like the “throw-in” C is maybe a lot more value than being discussed. At 33 an experienced veteran who in each of the past two seasons delivered 1.7 WAR playing in about 1/2 the games. His calling card is defense (something the Padres seem to embrace for this team). Of the 36 C with > 250 PA last year his dWAR ranked an impressive #9 and his overall WAR ranked #16. Not bad for a #2 catcher. Hitting is not his forte but ranked #22 and does have some power. Add that he has caught King, Vasquez, Brito, and Peralta which sould help their transition to the Padres along with the fact he speaks English - Spanish - Japanese allowing him to better fit with the foreign pitchers (especially Matsui).
Given the unknowns in rounding out the roster … plus in this era C seem to max out at about 120 games … Higashioka will get a lot of starts plus IF Campusano continues to hit in the ML giving him the extra rest via the DH role keeps him healthy / fresh for the season while providing a potential RHH DH bat to offset the LHH Merrill, Marsee, or Pauley who may land in that role.
#1686 · February 17, 2024, 4:29 am
On to the pitchers from the Soto/Grisham trade:
1. King does seem like a lock for the #3 SP role. 105 innings last season with the NYY and an ERA 2.75 …10.9 K% is impressive. Much of that was as a RP … but listening to him in an interview he said Boone worked him in multi-inning roles (some 3 inning stints) and in higher leverage situations (not mop up). So the transition to full time SP may not be that big a hurdle … just can he pull a Lugo and add about 50 innings over the course of the season?
2. Vasquez based on some of the scouting reports I have seen could be the real impact surprise IF he gets his command improved. Some of the reports rave about his “stuff” (vari0us pitches can be above average … especially for those spin rate fans). Only had 38 ML innings (but an impressive 2.87 ERA) and with the minors had 118 innings … so should be able to pitch as a SP for the season. Keeping in mind he would be the #4 SP … so if he settles in at an ERA near 4.00 that would work nicely. Being optimistic … I could see Vasquez really surprise.
3. Brito gets mixed reviews … some really like his stuff others are more neutral. Last season had 90 ML innings (4.28 ERA) mainly as a SP … with minors 126 innings so should be able to handle a season as a SP. If all we are seeking is a steady #4-5 SP … that 4.28 ERA works as it is not any worse (and in some cases better) than can be expected from other internal candidates or any of the non-Snell/Montgomery FA.
Good chance the #3-5 ends up King - Vasquez - Brito in 2024 serving as a 1-2 year bridge to the propects Lesko, Snelling, Thorpe, Iriate, et al. Plus they are low cost that fits the payroll need. Again, maybe overly optimistic but this trio for the mid to lower part of the staff might be fine for a playoff contender.
Should mention Thorpe who likely will start the season in AA but clearly is advanced as a Top 100 player who achieved rapid success climbing up the levels quickly. Low 90s type FB but success comes from his change and plus command. Hard to tell if that combo will work in the ML as a SP … some see a quality RP in the future.
Need to see them produce on the field but from a scouting / projection standpoint … Padres landed four arms that COULD be productive ML pitchers … none seem to fall into that “lottery pick” / long shot category.
Today … optimism reigns!
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#1687 · February 17, 2024, 8:06 am
There seems to be a lot of buzz building around Iriarte. I've heard Shildt and Niebla go out of their way to praise him and the work he's put in over the off-season. All of the beat writers seem to think he has a real shot at making the roster. Early reports out of spring training say he looks nasty.
I've seen some buzz around Thorpe making the roster too. Avila and Waldron also seem to be drawing praise. I'll join Fenn in saying I'm cautiously optimistic about our starting pitching.
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#1688 · February 17, 2024, 10:36 am
On pure stuff alone, Iriarte likely ranks just behind Lesko on the fastball/change-up combination. While Lesko's control issues can be tied to coming back from TJ surgery, Iriarte just hasn't developed consistent mechanics to take it to the next level. Iriarte could make it to the bullpen on opening day with what he already has, but if they project that he can develop that slider a little more or possibly add more of a sweeper in San Antonio to start the season (and maintain an improved command) I could see him easing into a solid #4 spot in the rotation by mid-season.
On the other hand, Thorpe is very advanced as a pitcher, much like Mazur, but needs just a couple of ticks on his fastball to make the jump to something more than a mid to bottom of the rotation starter. If he can get consistently in the mid-90's with his fastball and occasionally get it up to 97-98 (he already has good command of it), his impressive secondaries (particularly his change-up) will be even more effective. Mazur and Krob are two other advanced arms with a little tweaking by Niebla could be in that long relief/spot starter plane ride often between San Antonio and San Diego.
However, "cautiously optimistic" is a good phrase for them besides those already mentioned above and also about another 6-7 other SP arms in system which could blossom or fall back this year based on skills development and health. Can't wait for the minor league season to begin to see those arms in action!
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#1689 · February 17, 2024, 11:38 am
On Iriate … King in his interview after discussions the pitchers that came over with him he also mentioned that the caught Iriate since he arrived and thought his stuff was nasty. Add that Fangraphs put Iriate on its Top 100 … have to believe some legit potential to impact the ML. Padres, for now, seem to want to develop him as a SP.
Baring some unusual events in ST … would guess Iriate, Thorpe, and the other prospects land in the minors TO START 2024. None have had an extended run in AA and none (except Iriate) are on the 40 man. Looking at the 40 man can envision good pitchers (with more experience) getting those last two SP slots … Padres use the START of the season to see what they have in Vasquez, Brito, Avila, and Waldron. If they underperform (or get injured) the prospects are poised for a mid-season call-up.
ST is notoriously weak in really culling out who is ML ready … so maybe the Padres rely more on the player history and projection of readiness. Add some 40 man roster gaming … Padres have space but at least two slots will go for position players (maybe three) … they too may under preform and need to be replaced (nothing really on the 40 man) … Padres may not want to DFA anyone at this point before they have a better reading on the options. If they add a prospect but need to option him later … will potentially need another non-roster player to replace and added to the 40 man.
Pretty good bet that the 5-6 SP that start the season will not be the SP finishing the season …
Also, this discussion of the SP potential now - future does give support for using some arms in a trade package for a hitter (or two) … assuming other teams see the group as we do.
Will be interesting to see which SP prospect end up being converted to the pen (and when).
#1690 · February 17, 2024, 12:54 pm
Quote from fenn68 on February 17, 2024, 4:29 amOn to the pitchers from the Soto/Grisham trade:
1. King does seem like a lock for the #3 SP role. 105 innings last season with the NYY and an ERA 2.75 …10.9 K% is impressive. Much of that was as a RP … but listening to him in an interview he said Boone worked him in multi-inning roles (some 3 inning stints) and in higher leverage situations (not mop up). So the transition to full time SP may not be that big a hurdle … just can he pull a Lugo and add about 50 innings over the course of the season?
2. Vasquez based on some of the scouting reports I have seen could be the real impact surprise IF he gets his command improved. Some of the reports rave about his “stuff” (vari0us pitches can be above average … especially for those spin rate fans). Only had 38 ML innings (but an impressive 2.87 ERA) and with the minors had 118 innings … so should be able to pitch as a SP for the season. Keeping in mind he would be the #4 SP … so if he settles in at an ERA near 4.00 that would work nicely. Being optimistic … I could see Vasquez really surprise.
3. Brito gets mixed reviews … some really like his stuff others are more neutral. Last season had 90 ML innings (4.28 ERA) mainly as a SP … with minors 126 innings so should be able to handle a season as a SP. If all we are seeking is a steady #4-5 SP … that 4.28 ERA works as it is not any worse (and in some cases better) than can be expected from other internal candidates or any of the non-Snell/Montgomery FA.
Good chance the #3-5 ends up King - Vasquez - Brito in 2024 serving as a 1-2 year bridge to the propects Lesko, Snelling, Thorpe, Iriate, et al. Plus they are low cost that fits the payroll need. Again, maybe overly optimistic but this trio for the mid to lower part of the staff might be fine for a playoff contender.
Should mention Thorpe who likely will start the season in AA but clearly is advanced as a Top 100 player who achieved rapid success climbing up the levels quickly. Low 90s type FB but success comes from his change and plus command. Hard to tell if that combo will work in the ML as a SP … some see a quality RP in the future.
Need to see them produce on the field but from a scouting / projection standpoint … Padres landed four arms that COULD be productive ML pitchers … none seem to fall into that “lottery pick” / long shot category.
Today … optimism reigns!
A low 90s FB, plus command and a double plus changeup made Tom Glavine a star. It's possible it does the same for Thorpe.
I'm guessing that Avila and possibly Waldron have the advantage for making the starting rotation since i know that Avila, at least, is out of options. Considering that the Padres will lose him if he doesn't win a spot this year, it seems likely that he will make the team unless he falls flat on his face in spring training, just to keep up the limited depth.
Does anyone know if Waldron or Brito still have options? I know Vasquez does and Avila doesn't.