Quote from fenn68 on January 25, 2024, 4:03 pm

Syndergaard has not rebounded well from his surgery and missing almost all of 2020 and 2021. To be fair he did have a very good 2023 … 150+/- innings and a less than a 4 ERA. However, in 2023 was a full out disaster with an ERA in the 6s as I recall.

For the fans of peripherals … pre surgery (2019) he was a 98-99 MPH FB … post surgery he lost 5 MPH on all his pitches (2022) and in 2023 fell off a bit more. Maybe teams figured out he had lost his velo and by 2023 could really really hit him.

Side: he does (had) a reputation of being more concerned about being “THOR” than working on his pitching.

Not sure I would even go down that path … but if I did more a MiL deal with a couple of milling base IF he made he 26 man roster then laden with incentives based on games started.

Quote from fenn68 on January 25, 2024, 5:17 pm

Listen to a national report (out of Chicago) about his view of this winter and the FA class / contracts.

Basically not impressed with the class overall. He seems to think as the final players get signed might see the AAV remain high but the contract length be shorter than the agent’s initial demand but that will come at the cost of multiple opt outs. (That does not help the Padres who want the AAVs to drop to fit the payroll limit).

On the Padres, he is hearing from “other teams” that the Padres still believe they can win in 2024 (maybe that really means make the playoffs). His view is that the current core is strong enough to do so with a few adds to fill holes.

On Kim, has heard no rumors on Kim being discussed in trades … I interpret that as no teams are asking about him seriously. Actually has heard little on any trade rumors. Expects CLEV not to deal Bieber now (but at the deadline) and as for Cease, the CWS demand is (in his mind) too high to get a team to bite … again maybe at the trade deadline.

Although no sense of why the player movement across all MLB has been this slow, dragged out … did that the issue of the TV rights / regional sports networks being unresolved has kept a few teams holding back. Specifically Texas who is at sea as to their TV revenues for 2024 and that in turn may be the hold up on Montgomery (even though they did sign Hader).

Given this FA crop, did make sense to him that the Padres use this winter to pull back on payroll and reset.

I guess the national view is as frustrating as ours with minimal action across MLB … not just for the Padres heading for a flurry of action maybe in ST as players, agents, GMs start to panic.

Quote from fenn68 on January 25, 2024, 6:08 pm

39 year old RHRP Robertson signs for $11-12MM, 1 year … expected was around $8MM … so AAV are still high. The next RP is Nevis who estimated for a 2 year deal at about $8MM … guessing he is asking a lot more than what Robertson got.

Running out of FA RP that are good (reliable) and if there are they are likely way over priced.

So, does that make the low cost long control Padres assets (De Los Santos, Wilson) more valuable on the trade market? If the Padres have some faith in the internal backfill, the return may become more valuable for the entire roster’s performance (ie get that OF help).

Back to STL who are looking for RP as a priority and have “excess” OF …

Quote from dusty on January 25, 2024, 9:15 pm

Anybody else all for the idea of signing Woodruff to a one year deal (doubt he would take a two year deal)? Basically, allow him to rehab the first half of the season and then if the team is in the playoff hunt, he slides in as a major boost to the rotation. If they are out of it, he becomes a big time trade chip and the padres would effectively turn his signing into a good prospect for not much of a financial impact.

Joc signing for 12.5 mil guaranteed is, again, a bit more pricey than I would have thought. Prices still havent come down on these guys.

Quote from fenn68 on January 26, 2024, 2:43 am

Quote from dusty on January 25, 2024, 9:15 pm

Anybody else all for the idea of signing Woodruff to a one year deal (doubt he would take a two year deal)? Basically, allow him to rehab the first half of the season and then if the team is in the playoff hunt, he slides in as a major boost to the rotation. If they are out of it, he becomes a big time trade chip and the padres would effectively turn his signing into a good prospect for not much of a financial impact.

Joc signing for 12.5 mil guaranteed is, again, a bit more pricey than I would have thought. Prices still havent come down on these guys.

My understanding that after the type of shoulder surgery he had last October the recovery time is 12-14 months and often the pitchers do not come back effectively. Very low chance he returns in 2024 and even a lower chance he could return and be effective in 2024.

Keep in mind that MILW is on the hook for his medical bills as he rehabs or until he signs with another club. If this follows form … some team will offer him a two year contract … low salary for 2024 and a slightly under market salary for 2025. In Woodruff’s case that is probably still too high an AAV for the Padres to carry for zero production in 2024.

Not sure Woodruff would take a 2 year deal if the total of the two years is too low … under the plan that his medical is covered and he should be ready to showcase his recovery next Nov-Dec … gambling his velocity is back and some team offers him near a “normal” deal for someone of his talent. Bet on himself and teams needing top of the rotation arms next winter.

So the tension should be around the total of a 2 year deal vs what Woodruff sees as the probability of full recovery and signing for a better amount for 2025 after recovery. A healthy Woodruff would have been a multi-year $25MM+ pitcher in this market. No idea the balance point between the player and any team for a contract given the injury.

Quote from fenn68 on January 26, 2024, 4:09 am

Quote from BoosterSD on January 25, 2024, 3:12 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 25, 2024, 2:40 pm

 

What is the max you think Preller should offer?

Rosario at 32 is a pretty average hitter overall and a poor OF … depending on the price point OK signing given the apparent alternatives.

Hypothetically if Preller is still negotiating for Taylor (CF) and Lorenzen (SP) … either one likely with take the biggest chunk of payroll space … so may not want to commit to any of the LF options if they are demanding a contract that may hinder him landing one of those two.

Guessing Lorenzen will push the $12-15MM range (last good SP standing in that range) and Taylor will want a multi-year deal over $10MM AAV after seeing what Bader and Kiermaier got. If that is the case … and if Rosario (or the others) want $10MM … stalemate while the priorities sort.

It appears that BAL has some interest in Lorenzen, and I think they can outbid SD for his services. I think I would look at bringing in Lauer and then look at Odorizzi if he is healthy or Syndergaard depending on his price. It could be interesting to see if Syndergaard being two years off surgery and paired with Niebla could bounce back.

I dont think I would give Taylor a multi year deal, while I like his defense, I dont think he is worth over $10M. Focus on getting Carlson for CF, SH that is still young and under control, plays into Head or one of the other true CF candidates time frame for being ready.

I think a good comparison will be seeing what Pederson gets from AZ. Rosario is a better bat, and probably slightly better defensively over Pederson. Rosario made $9M last season, and everyone is getting more this season, so I would start at $9.5M and go up to $11M for Rosario. We need some LH pop on this team.

 

$12.5MM for Pederson.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 26, 2024, 6:14 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 26, 2024, 4:09 am

$12.5MM for Pederson.

Yeah, saw that. Although the salary for 2024 is $9.5M with a $3M buyout for 2025. So could SD get Rosario for $10-11M with a buyout for next season?

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 26, 2024, 7:56 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 26, 2024, 4:09 am

Quote from BoosterSD on January 25, 2024, 3:12 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 25, 2024, 2:40 pm

 

What is the max you think Preller should offer?

Rosario at 32 is a pretty average hitter overall and a poor OF … depending on the price point OK signing given the apparent alternatives.

Hypothetically if Preller is still negotiating for Taylor (CF) and Lorenzen (SP) … either one likely with take the biggest chunk of payroll space … so may not want to commit to any of the LF options if they are demanding a contract that may hinder him landing one of those two.

Guessing Lorenzen will push the $12-15MM range (last good SP standing in that range) and Taylor will want a multi-year deal over $10MM AAV after seeing what Bader and Kiermaier got. If that is the case … and if Rosario (or the others) want $10MM … stalemate while the priorities sort.

It appears that BAL has some interest in Lorenzen, and I think they can outbid SD for his services. I think I would look at bringing in Lauer and then look at Odorizzi if he is healthy or Syndergaard depending on his price. It could be interesting to see if Syndergaard being two years off surgery and paired with Niebla could bounce back.

I dont think I would give Taylor a multi year deal, while I like his defense, I dont think he is worth over $10M. Focus on getting Carlson for CF, SH that is still young and under control, plays into Head or one of the other true CF candidates time frame for being ready.

I think a good comparison will be seeing what Pederson gets from AZ. Rosario is a better bat, and probably slightly better defensively over Pederson. Rosario made $9M last season, and everyone is getting more this season, so I would start at $9.5M and go up to $11M for Rosario. We need some LH pop on this team.

 

$12.5MM for Pederson.

Well it appears AJ is sticking to his theme of putting a value on a player and not budging.

Guessing he did not value Joc at $12+ mil

But we are running out of options.

I wish Bellinger would sign already.....thinking this is holding up our move(s) for outfielders.

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 26, 2024, 7:58 am

Quote from BoosterSD on January 26, 2024, 6:14 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 26, 2024, 4:09 am

$12.5MM for Pederson.

Yeah, saw that. Although the salary for 2024 is $9.5M with a $3M buyout for 2025. So could SD get Rosario for $10-11M with a buyout for next season?

Probably not … at least as Rosario looks at it now. In 2023 Pederson had a 0.6 WAR while Rosario had a 1.4 WAR … guessing Rosario is not only seeking a guarantee greater than Pederson … probably a two year deal. Also that may be why Pederson got signed and Rosario did not.

For me too much for an ‘average” hitter and a poor defensive option when the Padres need at least three OF add under maybe only a $20-25MM yet to be deployed. Leaning more to spreading that money over the three (maybe four) adds reducing the risk of any one failure torpedoing the line-up. Basically four hitters each less than Rosario but collectively better as a foursome over Rosario and three even lesser options.