Quote from fenn68 on January 24, 2024, 8:10 am

Just tossing in a multi-approach:

1. Sign Profar for about $5MM AAV / 2 years ... the OF/DH/1B  issue player issue does not go aways next season and neither does the payroll issue
2. Trade for a CF (either Carlson ($2.4MM) or Varsho ($5.7MM) or ?) ... try to use a ML RP given both teams are contenders and want to improve not just dump their player. Both have three year control ... buying time for Head or Zavala to arrive if not sold on Marsee in CF.
3. Promote one of Marsee - Pauley - Merrill for the 3rd hitter (can shuffle through the season if needed)

That would not require too much of the available money to be used, then

sign Lorenzen (probably in the $10-12MM range ... 2 years) ... boost the SP allowing all but one of Vazquez, Brito, Avila, Waldron to go to the pen ... maybe backfill for the trade of one of De Los Santos, Wilson in a deal to get that CF. Lorenzen may be the best available (past Snell and Montgomery) and although not a major arm he does appear to be healthy and can deliver innings ... something clear a risk with all the other SP options.

Whew ... complicated and a lot of if conditions .... but a path to address 2024-25 while we wait for the wash out all the AA hitting / pitching prospects.

Quote from Randy Manese on January 24, 2024, 8:38 am

Two of the top SS prospects for 2024 come right out of our backyard - Marcelo Mayer from Eastlake HS in Chula Vista and Carson Williams from Torrey Pines HS in Torrey Pines - while Jackson Merrill ranks right in front of them.  Williams was drafted right after Merrill and is a better defensive SS than Merrill and currently has shown more power, but he also strikes out over 31% of the time.   While Merrill is not listed as having any superlative skills by MLB.com, he's likely next in line in the Hit Tool department and showed emerging power despite being ill and injured several times during the 2023 season.  Further, his K rate (overall 12% at Hi A and AA) is much better than either Colson Montgomery (19%) or Jordan Lawler (20%) which portends a much lower chase rate and higher OBP in the majors.

Concur that overall #1 pick in the 2022 draft Jackson Holliday will be a better SS than Merrill, however, believe Merrill will rise to the #2 position on this list as a hitter, whether or not he remains at SS.  Merrill has the range and arm to remain at SS, my only question is whether his hands are as sure as some of the others on this list.  In some of the plays I've seen him make in the minors, particularly on DPs, he got to the ball and fielded it cleanly but the transfer from glove to hand seemed a bit slow (his read on % of making the play or maybe a slight bobble or combination of both) which caused him to forsake the DP and just go for the out at 1b.  Could just be a mechanical/confidence adjustment is needed but Merrill has everything else to be an above average everyday player in the majors at a number of positions.  If fully healthy, I do expect him to debut in San Diego some time this year and hopefully fulfill the potential to meet his and our expectations.

Quote from fenn68 on January 24, 2024, 8:56 am

Quote from Randy Manese on January 24, 2024, 8:38 am

Two of the top SS prospects for 2024 come right out of our backyard - Marcelo Mayer from Eastlake HS in Chula Vista and Carson Williams from Torrey Pines HS in Torrey Pines - while Jackson Merrill ranks right in from on them.  Williams was drafted right after Merrill and is a better defensive SS than Merrill and currently has shown more power, but he also strikes out over 31% of the time.   While Merrill is not listed as having any superlative skills by MLB.com, he's likely next in line in the Hit Tool department and showed emerging power despite being ill and injured several time during the 2023 season.  Further, his K rate (overall 12% at Hi A and AA) is much better than either Colson Montgomery (19%) or Jordan Lawler (20%) which portends a much lower chase rate and higher OBP in the majors.

Concur that overall #1 pick in the 2022 draft Jackson Holliday will be a better SS than Merrill, however, believe Merrill will rise to the #2 position on this list as a hitter, whether or not he remains at SS.  Merrill has the range and arm to remain at SS, my only question is whether his hands are as sure as some of the others on this list.  In some of the plays I've seen him make in the minors, particularly on DPs, he got to the ball and fielded it cleanly but the transfer from glove to hand seemed a bit slow, which caused him to forsake the DP and just go for the out at 1b.  Could just be a mechanical adjustment is needed but Merrill has everything else to be an above average everyday player in the majors at a number of positions.  If fully healthy, I do expect him to debut in San Diego some time this year and hopefully fulfill the potential to meet his and our expectations.

Encouraged by the projection on the hit tool … to me the most important for his future.

Probably not this season but would not be surprised to see Merrill emerge in LF (maybe CF) next season. Bogaerts will be the SS for the next few years (like it or not) and it does not seem Merrill is clearly a superior defensive option for SS … Kim will leave allowing Cronenworth under a long contract to return to 2B where he is better suited … a major need will still in the OF/1B/DH and Merrill appears to be athletic enough with a strong enough arm to handle the OF. See more likely that Merrill shifts positions than holding an INF slot.

Side: IF Pauley can hit he is more suited for 1B … not all that speedy nor does he have a strong throwing arm. Marsee maybe be CF or DH/4th OF.

Quote from sportwarrior on January 25, 2024, 9:05 am

Not super stoked that AJ Cassavell seems to be just as befuddled as we are as to the Padres' plans. We're a little more than 2 weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting, and we still need 2 starting outfielders, clarity at DH/1B/bench, and at least one more SP.

The eff are we going to do?

Quote from fenn68 on January 25, 2024, 9:42 am

Quote from sportwarrior on January 25, 2024, 9:05 am

Not super stoked that AJ Cassavell seems to be just as befuddled as we are as to the Padres' plans. We're a little more than 2 weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting, and we still need 2 starting outfielders, clarity at DH/1B/bench, and at least one more SP.

The eff are we going to do?

I have taken a deep sigh and shifted my timeline to worry to the end of ST. Preller will find bodies … and given the players left as FA that fit within the budget … none are really worth caring all that much about.

Beginning to look more like one or two trades (and that has a lot to do with the timelines of the trade partner).

For me, the only focus is OF (including at least one real CF). At least have bodies for INF/C/bench/SP/RP … good or bad.  With only Tatis a legit ML OF … Azocar lucky to be a 5th OF … would not spend a cent (or prospect) on anything other than OF … maybe add four even if they are fringe since that is better than having Tatis cover the entire OF.

$20-25MM to deploy coupled with the lack of quality options for the OF will result in Preller trying not to make an early move that may get in the way of a better second move (thinking money available or trade chips used).

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 25, 2024, 10:03 am

I get the feeling that there are a lot of teams involved in the trade market that are just waiting for someone to blink. Sellers are trying to hold out for the best possible return. Buyers are waiting for the ask to drop. There's still enough left on the free agent market to allow posturing. I'm sure AJ is involved in a ton of discussions. I still think we see a trade or 2 before it's all said and done.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 25, 2024, 10:09 am

I am beginning to believe as Fenn said earlier that we may be waiting for other teams' OF situations to clarify.I'm sure there are more than one vying for Bellingers services and depending on who lands him an Outfielder AJ is after may become available.

Maybe once Bellinger signs it will fall into place.

Haven't heard much about Duval either.

Free agent options remaining pretty much are Taylor/Duval/Pham/Jankowski/Pederson/Hicks.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on January 25, 2024, 1:37 pm

It appears that AZ is close to signing Pederson, another LHH OF option for SD off the board. I would really make a strong run at Rosario at this point. I know CF is an important issue as well, but Rosario did hit 21 HRs last season, and is LHH so it would be a nice add. Then we could still sign Profar as a super sub as well.

Quote from fenn68 on January 25, 2024, 2:40 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on January 25, 2024, 1:37 pm

It appears that AZ is close to signing Pederson, another LHH OF option for SD off the board. I would really make a strong run at Rosario at this point. I know CF is an important issue as well, but Rosario did hit 21 HRs last season, and is LHH so it would be a nice add. Then we could still sign Profar as a super sub as well.

What is the max you think Preller should offer?

Rosario at 32 is a pretty average hitter overall and a poor OF … depending on the price point OK signing given the apparent alternatives.

Hypothetically if Preller is still negotiating for Taylor (CF) and Lorenzen (SP) … either one likely with take the biggest chunk of payroll space … so may not want to commit to any of the LF options if they are demanding a contract that may hinder him landing one of those two.

Guessing Lorenzen will push the $12-15MM range (last good SP standing in that range) and Taylor will want a multi-year deal over $10MM AAV after seeing what Bader and Kiermaier got. If that is the case … and if Rosario (or the others) want $10MM … stalemate while the priorities sort.