Quote from MrPadre19 on January 26, 2024, 9:22 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 26, 2024, 7:58 am

Quote from BoosterSD on January 26, 2024, 6:14 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 26, 2024, 4:09 am

$12.5MM for Pederson.

Yeah, saw that. Although the salary for 2024 is $9.5M with a $3M buyout for 2025. So could SD get Rosario for $10-11M with a buyout for next season?

Probably not … at least as Rosario looks at it now. In 2023 Pederson had a 0.6 WAR while Rosario had a 1.4 WAR … guessing Rosario is not only seeking a guarantee greater than Pederson … probably a two year deal. Also that may be why Pederson got signed and Rosario did not.

For me too much for an ‘average” hitter and a poor defensive option when the Padres need at least three OF add under maybe only a $20-25MM yet to be deployed. Leaning more to spreading that money over the three (maybe four) adds reducing the risk of any one failure torpedoing the line-up. Basically four hitters each less than Rosario but collectively better as a foursome over Rosario and three even lesser options.

If .6 WAR is worth $12.5 million I'm thinking we can't afford Rosario either....

Quote from BoosterSD on January 26, 2024, 9:58 am

It looks as if Jank is resigning with TEX, should help set the value for other remaining OFers.

Quote from fenn68 on January 26, 2024, 10:06 am

Heard that one of the odds makers came out with the 2024 win total for over / under. Padres were at 81 1/2 wins … basically the same as last season.

Would have thought minus Soto, Snell, Hader, Wacha, Lugo, Martinez and plus very little they would have been more pessimistic. Maybe a product of what they think of the other teams in the league? Maybe the product of seeing the “core” being so much better?

If this were a betting line … hard to see a 50/50 split over and under (which is more aligned to what the house wants so as not to lose money).

Are we fans being too pessimistic? Will it only take some “small” adds to take them over and in a playoff hunt that may only require 84 wins?

Quote from fenn68 on January 26, 2024, 10:18 am

Quote from BoosterSD on January 26, 2024, 9:58 am

It looks as if Jank is resigning with TEX, should help set the value for other remaining OFers.

I have no clue in this market what Jank will pull down? However, if Gallo can get $5MM at this stage in his career … Jank had a better 2023 … can he pull down $5MM?

Jankowski could have been a CF (at least platoon/back-up) for the Padres. Really running out of FA options for CF … have zero faith in Azocar as a regular CF … so:

Taylor gets signed as the last FA CF option? (Hicks and Duvall are not really CF any more)

Marsee gets CF? (Is he ready and is he really a CF)

Tatis shifts to CF? (Then have to debate two corner OF)

Padres trade for a CF … Carlson or Varsho or Crow-Armstrong or ? (Might be waiting for the Bellinger signing).

Preller has to have a plan and a fall back plan … just no idea what is really in the mill.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 26, 2024, 10:22 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 26, 2024, 10:06 am

Are we fans being too pessimistic? Will it only take some “small” adds to take them over and in a playoff hunt that may only require 84 wins?

No, I dont think we are too pessimistic when you look at this team. I think we all agree that we need a LF, a CFer, and a better bat at 1B than what Crone provides. This team goes as far as the bats of Tatis, Machado, and Bogaerts takes it.

Although an extra SP would be a bonus to start the season. I do think that we can get to the All Star Break, maybe trade dead line with the pitching that we have in hand. At that time frame though, many of our pitching options will be close to their career highs in innings, and we will need reinforcements at that time.

However, will SD have the money to bring in trades at that time????

Quote from BoosterSD on January 26, 2024, 10:32 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 26, 2024, 10:18 am

Quote from BoosterSD on January 26, 2024, 9:58 am

It looks as if Jank is resigning with TEX, should help set the value for other remaining OFers.

I have no clue in this market what Jank will pull down? However, if Gallo can get $5MM at this stage in his career … Jank had a better 2023 … can he pull down $5MM?

Jankowski could have been a CF (at least platoon/back-up) for the Padres. Really running out of FA options for CF … have zero faith in Azocar as a regular CF … so:

Taylor gets signed as the last FA CF option? (Hicks and Duvall are not really CF any more)

Marsee gets CF? (Is he ready and is he really a CF)

Tatis shifts to CF? (Then have to debate two corner OF)

Padres trade for a CF … Carlson or Varsho or Crow-Armstrong or ? (Might be waiting for the Bellinger signing).

Preller has to have a plan and a fall back plan … just no idea what is really in the mill.

I think Gallo gets the bigger money than Jank due to power. ML is in love with power.

With the available SD budget, if you dont think they can afford Rosario at $12-15M, how can they afford Bellinger? Who could be a bigger gamble than most people think. Pass on the RHH Taylor. I could live with the defensive risk in Hicks, had a good 2nd half with BAL last season, especially at league minimum, Azocar is available for late inning defese.

Tatis to CF could work. Kim to CF could work. Give Marsee more time in the MiL.

Trade wise, I think Varsho is only available if they sign Bellinger, if they sign Soler more of a DH now, and they still need Varsho in the OF. I agree Carlson is a legit possible target. And I dont think Crow-Armstrong is available. Morel might be the easier get, although he is RHH, but still at league min.

Quote from fenn68 on January 26, 2024, 10:34 am

Quote from BoosterSD on January 26, 2024, 10:22 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 26, 2024, 10:06 am

Are we fans being too pessimistic? Will it only take some “small” adds to take them over and in a playoff hunt that may only require 84 wins?

No, I dont think we are too pessimistic when you look at this team. I think we all agree that we need a LF, a CFer, and a better bat at 1B than what Crone provides. This team goes as far as the bats of Tatis, Machado, and Bogaerts takes it.

Although an extra SP would be a bonus to start the season. I do think that we can get to the All Star Break, maybe trade dead line with the pitching that we have in hand. At that time frame though, many of our pitching options will be close to their career highs in innings, and we will need reinforcements at that time.

However, will SD have the money to bring in trades at that time????

You touch on an interesting payroll finesse strategy … right now go cheap on filling the open slots (since really nothing great remains within the Padres’ price point) and stay well under the budget … gamble can get to mid-season (trade deadline) in contention and then add a number of higher impact rentals only having the eat about 1/3 of their salaries against the tax threshold. As rentals will not have to give any of the major prospects. Think a Bieber type for the stretch run but only costing $4-5MM.

Gamble either way … go low early and build at the deadline for the stretch / playoffs with much more impactful players (at the risk of falling out early) vs spend it all now for mediocre FA … maybe stay in contention (maybe not) but get to the stretch run / playoffs with a less competitive roster.

The given is not exceeding the tax threshold in 2024.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 26, 2024, 10:41 am

Since Fenn brought up CHC and Crow-Armstrong; who I dont think is available, I replied with Morel.

I wonder if an expanded trade would work for both SD and CHC. Both teams are trying to compete this season, so have to be careful on what players are included.

Something built around Morel and Mervis for Pauley, Zavala, and Mazur?

Morel takes CF for SD, and Mervis is a LHH 1B, had a horrible 1st season in the ML but has done well in MiL. Pauley can find a home at 3B for them and Zavala back fills the system for them.

Quote from fenn68 on January 26, 2024, 10:50 am

Quote from BoosterSD on January 26, 2024, 10:32 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 26, 2024, 10:18 am

Quote from BoosterSD on January 26, 2024, 9:58 am

It looks as if Jank is resigning with TEX, should help set the value for other remaining OFers.

I have no clue in this market what Jank will pull down? However, if Gallo can get $5MM at this stage in his career … Jank had a better 2023 … can he pull down $5MM?

Jankowski could have been a CF (at least platoon/back-up) for the Padres. Really running out of FA options for CF … have zero faith in Azocar as a regular CF … so:

Taylor gets signed as the last FA CF option? (Hicks and Duvall are not really CF any more)

Marsee gets CF? (Is he ready and is he really a CF)

Tatis shifts to CF? (Then have to debate two corner OF)

Padres trade for a CF … Carlson or Varsho or Crow-Armstrong or ? (Might be waiting for the Bellinger signing).

Preller has to have a plan and a fall back plan … just no idea what is really in the mill.

I think Gallo gets the bigger money than Jank due to power. ML is in love with power.

With the available SD budget, if you dont think they can afford Rosario at $12-15M, how can they afford Bellinger? Who could be a bigger gamble than most people think. Pass on the RHH Taylor. I could live with the defensive risk in Hicks, had a good 2nd half with BAL last season, especially at league minimum, Azocar is available for late inning defese.

Tatis to CF could work. Kim to CF could work. Give Marsee more time in the MiL.

Trade wise, I think Varsho is only available if they sign Bellinger, if they sign Soler more of a DH now, and they still need Varsho in the OF. I agree Carlson is a legit possible target. And I dont think Crow-Armstrong is available. Morel might be the easier get, although he is RHH, but still at league min.

My reference to Bellinger was TOR or CUBS signing him freeing up Varsho or Crow-Armstrong. Padres will not sign Bellinger.

I discount Hicks because he has not signed with anyone … thinking he is not all that interested in playing in 2024 (or 2025) since he is getting paid for not playing. He has to have a lot of offers given he would only cost league minimum.

I am leaning heavily on Preller making a trade to get control at a low cost to bridge to Head in a few years. Makes Carlson (switch hitter) with upside a prime target … may not be great but better than any current option. A longer shot may be Varsho (only if Bellinger signs with TOR) but much preferred over Carlson defensively with maybe similar offense. Might be someone else the Preller sees that I don’t.