Quote from BoosterSD on January 23, 2024, 11:44 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 23, 2024, 10:07 am

 

Agree with the first statement but come to a different conclusion … especially if this is only for a couple of weeks until Machado is back at 3B.

I actually takes some skills to play ML 1B.

not sure shifting them for just a few weeks then shifting them back is better for the team winning in those first couple of weeks.

If Machado is off defense for only a couple of weeks, then what is the point of Pauley starting the season in the ML? To be the DH for the balance of the season? Does not help his development for a move to 1B anyway.

Which is why I dont want to shift them at all. I think Crone's best chance to bounce back is to stay at 2B. I would leave Crone and Bogaerts at 2B and SS all season. Kim showed last season he can handle the different positions.

And yes I agree that there is skill to playing 1B; however, with all of ST I do think that Pauley can handle the move from 3B to 1B. He can handle the distance from home plate from playing 3B. Yes, he would need to learn what balls to go for and which to let the 2B get, taking the pick offs from the pitcher, and the new glove. But if they brought back Cooper, he could assist with that as well, plus protecting Pauley from difficult LHP.

Still think the chances of success is better with Crone and Bogaerts staying at the regular positions, and trusting Pauley can handle the switch to 1B.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 23, 2024, 11:50 am

I know its not a popular idea on this page, but Gallo is signing with WAS for $5M and up to $1M in performance bonuses. Sounds like a deal SD should have made for someone that can handle all four corners and CF to some ability as well.

Quote from sportwarrior on January 23, 2024, 12:09 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on January 23, 2024, 11:50 am

I know its not a popular idea on this page, but Gallo is signing with WAS for $5M and up to $1M in performance bonuses. Sounds like a deal SD should have made for someone that can handle all four corners and CF to some ability as well.

Yeah... he's had massive struggles since leaving TEX, but... I dunno. What, exactly, are we waiting for at this point? We've worked ourselves into a ridiculously tight corner with the budget... Seems as though a guy who, in all likelihood, will be at least league average in overall offense for $5m is a pretty solid bet for a team like ours? Dude is LHH, to boot.

Maybe Gallo isn't an answer, but I sure don't see any clear cut alternatives.

Quote from fenn68 on January 23, 2024, 12:30 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 23, 2024, 11:09 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 23, 2024, 3:59 am

Rumor has Paxton signing for $12MM … early estimate was only $8MMish … so the theme of having to pay FA pitchers more (a lot more) than expected continues. Just solidifies two of my thoughts:

1. Since never really know who among the prospects will really develop … don’t trade any of the pitching prospects (except maybe in a blockbuster deal) in order to build an effective future pitching staff … one the Padres will not be able to afford via FA signings.

2. Given the need across MLB … even mid-range ML pitchers have substantial value … so the Padres may be able to get a quality return (eg ML hitter) if they want to move a pitcher (most likely an arm such as De Los Santos, Wilson, Avila, Waldron).

==========

On the other hand, still seems to be a very repressed market for FA hitters … clearly less action than with pitchers … maybe because how teams see their internal options … maybe just not the most appealing group of FA hitters. That suggests that a number of “bodies” will be around for the Padres to sign at bargain prices as ST starts … not saying good hitters but bodies to fill the voids.

OR,Since we have no idea who will pan out and free agent SP's are so expensive trade the prospects for SP's who we "know" are major league caliber starters......like Cease.

Not just advocating for a Dylan Cease trade more just the other philosophy on acquiring SP's without over paying contract wise.

It worked for Snell,Musgrove and Darvish to this point.

 

If they can get that established SP … who is quality under long control at a low cost given the payroll limit … sure. Not all that easy to get another team to trade those types.

Given the existing long term contracts that use up a major portion of the payroll for the next 4-5 years and multiple existing holes to be addressed … the value of league minimum / long control players is critical for a full roster to cover those 4-5 years.

Taking out top prospects to get a couple of years of an expensive player … then having to find another as he goes to FA will be a challenge. Meanwhile there is no payroll space to address the other voids on the roster.

Three open hitter slots (four after Kim departs) and two open SP slots (three after King departs after 2025) … and the budget will still be constrained … all that cannot be addressed unless multiple prospects workout … and need to wait to find out who does and who does not.

 

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 23, 2024, 6:23 pm

Report is that the Padres had scouts attending the workouts for Syndergaard and Lorenzen … of course the Padres have scouts everywhere, so no real link to signing.

Also, heard a rumor that we should not expect any signings until February … don’t know why and makes little sense unless they don’t care who they sign out of the remaining FA since none are exceptional and are moving to get the cheapest.

One off the wall idea is that the Padres have the structure of a trade that is contingent on the other team making a FA signing or a second trade (freeing up someone). For example, if the Blue Jays sign Bellinger they may move Varsho … if they sign Montgomery they may move Manoah. If the Padres see them as better than any FA … they can afford to wait.

Quote from fenn68 on January 24, 2024, 3:27 am

Well the greater than expected contracts continue:

Hoskins (1B/DH) signs for 2 years / $34MM ($17MM AAV)  … expected was 1 year / $14MM.

Moore (LHRP) signs for 1 year / $9MM … expected 1 year / $7MM.

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 24, 2024, 4:45 am

The Hoskins’ contract has sent me down a different mix of ideas on how the Padres will address the three open offense slots … I am not sold on any of the FA remaining (at what appears to be the high cost trend) given the payroll limit. Fans (and probably me) may not like the end state but reality is setting in.

1. Like it or not, one or more of Marsee, Merrill, or Pauley makes the roster

2. Trade potential exceeds the chance of any significant FA move

3. For fill, will see waiver claims

4. Padres will focus on the potential three adds being OF and avoid 1B/DH types until all other alternatives are exhausted. Part of that logic is that they are dealing with “marginal” players with almost no starters / back-up in the OF … therefore if any of those “marginal” players fail (see Dahl, Engle) or injuries hit … no coverage, In the INF have Pauley, Merrill, Batten, and Rosario that would allow movement to cover 1B … maybe not great but better coverage than the OF options.

5. Padres may not use their remaining money on FA … go relatively low on a couple of the signings but be willing to … via trade … add a more potent bat that carries a bigger contract. Plus with only Marsee and Azocar in the run for CF … a CF option (or two) has to be the focus just for insurance.

With at least three position players needed … good chance we will be frustrated with who the Padres end up adding. Still even with those TBD adds … still think the Padres will be in the hunt for a playoff run.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 24, 2024, 5:50 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 23, 2024, 12:30 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 23, 2024, 11:09 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 23, 2024, 3:59 am

Rumor has Paxton signing for $12MM … early estimate was only $8MMish … so the theme of having to pay FA pitchers more (a lot more) than expected continues. Just solidifies two of my thoughts:

1. Since never really know who among the prospects will really develop … don’t trade any of the pitching prospects (except maybe in a blockbuster deal) in order to build an effective future pitching staff … one the Padres will not be able to afford via FA signings.

2. Given the need across MLB … even mid-range ML pitchers have substantial value … so the Padres may be able to get a quality return (eg ML hitter) if they want to move a pitcher (most likely an arm such as De Los Santos, Wilson, Avila, Waldron).

==========

On the other hand, still seems to be a very repressed market for FA hitters … clearly less action than with pitchers … maybe because how teams see their internal options … maybe just not the most appealing group of FA hitters. That suggests that a number of “bodies” will be around for the Padres to sign at bargain prices as ST starts … not saying good hitters but bodies to fill the voids.

OR,Since we have no idea who will pan out and free agent SP's are so expensive trade the prospects for SP's who we "know" are major league caliber starters......like Cease.

Not just advocating for a Dylan Cease trade more just the other philosophy on acquiring SP's without over paying contract wise.

It worked for Snell,Musgrove and Darvish to this point.

 

If they can get that established SP … who is quality under long control at a low cost given the payroll limit … sure. Not all that easy to get another team to trade those types.

Given the existing long term contracts that use up a major portion of the payroll for the next 4-5 years and multiple existing holes to be addressed … the value of league minimum / long control players is critical for a full roster to cover those 4-5 years.

Taking out top prospects to get a couple of years of an expensive player … then having to find another as he goes to FA will be a challenge. Meanwhile there is no payroll space to address the other voids on the roster.

Three open hitter slots (four after Kim departs) and two open SP slots (three after King departs after 2025) … and the budget will still be constrained … all that cannot be addressed unless multiple prospects workout … and need to wait to find out who does and who does not.

 

 

 

As an example...and I'm not saying we should, but....the Marlins want a young controllable SS and we want a young controllable SP.

A "Merrill for Cabrera" TYPE deal works for both clubs.

Obviously other pieces included or even different SP on their side.

Point was just that this seems more the Preller MO than anything else.

 

My guess is we haven't signed anyone because AJ is still working some trade angles....more likely for bats but who knows?

 

 

Quote from sportwarrior on January 24, 2024, 7:28 am

I think the most likely explanation is that a target group of FA has been identified that the team (1) feels are all of the same caliber and is therefore agnostic as to which members of that group it ends up with, and (2) thinks will get more affordable as the calendar flips into February.

The one guy I feel fits the affordable category but is more of a "must" than a "maybe" is Profar, purely from a chemistry standpoint.