Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 17, 2024, 3:29 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on January 17, 2024, 2:12 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 17, 2024, 1:59 pm

https://x.com/dnevin_david/status/1747388193731735877?s=20

 

But we can't develop prospects.....

How many were pitching v. position? How many stayed in the MLs? How many were successful in MLs? And how many were drafted by SD and made the ML in a SD uni? And SD is really middle of the pack in this graphic.

Come on Mr P. not really a great graphic to prove a point.

Yeah I would definitely need a lot more information to draw any real conclusions about our developmental abilities than what that provides. I don't think any of us really see Chandler Seagle as a testament to our ability to develop players.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 17, 2024, 6:24 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 17, 2024, 3:22 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on January 17, 2024, 1:42 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 17, 2024, 1:23 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on January 17, 2024, 9:51 am

Love to get those bats, even though right handed, but pitching too thin to give up King.  The other part of this is that Hays will make more than King in arbitration and is not really a CF, so not really filling the most important defensive position left to fill.

I would argue that I feel much better about our pitching pipeline and development under Niebla and company than I do our position player pipeline and development.

I think you are correct in the fact that SD has a history of producing better pitching prospects than position players. And I feel better about Hays in CF than Randy does.

I think the point of your original post I felt was least necessary; at least to start the season, was another big, long term contract even for a SP. And especially Snell. But to your point, could we not find a FA SP that would be equivalent to King? Even through a different trade?

And to repeat, the biggest issue with the players being acquired in the trade is they are both RHH. And I get it, if you can hit you can hit, but would still prefer some better L/R balance on the SD team. Now IF we could substitute Hays for Mullins, I would be more excited about that.

At the right price I would absolutely prefer a trade for a good lower cost starter over a big free agent contract. Part of the reason I started wondering about flipping King is that the asking price for those type of guys is said to be astronomically high. I would like to have a 3rd option to bank on. With the prices bounce back candidates and backend starters are getting I would rather pay up for a top starter if we have to go the free agent route.

As far as the bats I care more about splits than which side they bat from. Like you said if they can hit they can hit. I thought about Mullins too. I think he's a little bit better defensively and on the bases. His splits have been pretty drastic at times and he's been trending downwards since what seemed like a big breakout when he stopped switch hitting in 2021. Hays has been more balanced and consistent. I like him a little bit better.

And Hays is about $3M cheaper than Mullins.

Quote from Randy Manese on January 18, 2024, 4:21 am

Padres pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training on 11 Feb.  We should know early on whether all those on the injured list from last year - Darvish, Musgrove, Suarez, Wilson, Cosgrove, Jakob, the always injured Morejon and even newcomer Go (reportedly spent time on the IL in the KBO with minor nagging injuries) are fully healthy and ready to compete.

For those who want to dream big, could Patino (and even Reggie Lawson on the EP roster) rediscover what made him a top prospect as a teenager?  Can Niebla  improve the command and control of guys like Iriarte, Brito and Vasquez to solidify the pitching staff in the multiple roles those 3 could be assigned to.  Finally, there is always the hope that we find an arm that comes out of nowhere to become an integral part of either the bullpen or the starting rotation - pitching is so unpredictable and maybe the Padres will get lucky - we want redemption for all the bad luck we had in 2023!

Quote from fenn68 on January 18, 2024, 5:03 am

I think every team that needs (wants) to upgrade is SP (even just the #4-5 SP) will be betting on pitchers being better than expectations for 2024 … be they FA or prospects (trades will be normally too costly for the associated gamble).

On the FA market once past Montgomery / Snell who for most teams will be too costly at $20-30MM and for 5-7 years (the long commitment will be as big a problem than the AAV) … nothing to rely on. Next in most minds are Clevinger or Lorenzen … both expecting to get 2 year deals pushing $12-15MM AAV. After that a sea of injury risks, poor 2023, but nothing to have confidence in.

Enter King for the Padres as an assumed #3. Comes with risk (but cheap in a budget squeeze). First, can he really be a SP given in the past three years his ML innings (starts) were in 2021 … 63 (6); 2022 … 51 (0) ….2023 … 104 (9) complete with an injury history. Now balance that with his ERA run of 3.55 … 2.29 … 2.75 (2023). High risk … but are there any alternatives that are less risk to achieve a #3 status and are cheap? Don’t think so. IF there were why would the Padres not pursue (sign) them for the #4 or #5 slots currently bigger concern than King? Why have not they been signed by one of the other teams needing a SP?

So, I would probably not opt to trade King … considering the #3 SP is critical if the Padres want to contend and the gamble on King is better than ???????.

In the discussion at hand … I really like Hays … he has played complete seasons for 3 straight seasons … a plus defensive LF/CF … and a sight above average hitter (somewhere between 100-110 wRC+). However, the Padres are going to contend based on the core 6 hitters so my gamble is that they can add a FA (or marginal trade) that provides enough support for that core 6 to make the playoffs than trying to get that same level of support for Musgrove / Darvish (both with lingering unknowns from injury).

Bottom line in my mind if the Padres want to contend they can’t afford to trade King (barring some truly unrealistic  deal where the get a better pitcher back).

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 18, 2024, 9:11 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 17, 2024, 10:02 am

Time to resurrect an old trade idea. Alek Manoah.

Apparently the Blue Jays have inked the Cuban SP Rodriguez … probably knocking Alek Manoah out of a starting role. Some have suggested that the Blue Jays and Manoah had some conflict last season … so could now be trade material.

Now who is Manoah … SP, 26, at league minimum with 4 more control years and two more minor league options. Outstanding 2021 (3.22 ERA) and 2022 (2.24 ERA) BUT a major collapse in 2023 (5.87 ERA).

I guess the trade value may be a big debate … depending a bit on how motivated TOR is to move him. Other teams have to make a call on Manoah’s 2023 … a one off or the sign of a problem … does set their size of their offer. However, a lot of teams want SP … so the demand side is there (given salary and control with upside).

What might TOR hold out for before trading Manoah? Not what we would want to give (usually a lot less than TOR wants / needs) but what is the maximum would the Padres give that satisfies Toronto’s wants/needs?

Jon Morosi brought the Padres up as a team that makes sense for Manoah in the wake of the Rodriguez signing on MLB Network. Between the Soto talks and earlier reported talks about Cronenworth both sides should have some idea of what the other might want and be willing to give.

The Blue Jays are reportedly looking for a big OF or DH bat. They could probably use someone at 2B or 3B too. It's hard to judge what it might take to get him. How do you value a guy who went from being a CY contender to one of the worst in the league? It feels like a deal that could be expanded out to take some of the focus off of Manoah.

Quote from Randy Manese on January 18, 2024, 10:12 am

MLB.com identified 5 under the radar pitchers who could provide value - Ryu, Lorenzen, Junis, Carrasco and Paxton.  SPOTRAC has most of these guys as listed in the 7-9M expected value range with the exception of Junis, who is pegged as a RP at around 5M.  Junis has had some SP experience and we've seen him over the last couple of years with the Giants, so he might be one of those guys on our radar.  Ryu, if healthy, would be nice to have as a LHP and would even be a person of interest in the opening 2 games of the season in Korea.  Don't know how much he has left in the tank or whether he'd sign for under 6M.  Lorenzen might be the only other of the remaining 3 I'd take a chance on, but he's probably out of our price range.   1-2 year deal tops with total package around 8-10M might do it for Junis or Ryu if we wait long enough.

Quote from fenn68 on January 18, 2024, 11:39 am

Quote from Randy Manese on January 18, 2024, 10:12 am

MLB.com identified 5 under the radar pitchers who could provide value - Ryu, Lorenzen, Junis, Carrasco and Paxton.  SPOTRAC has most of these guys as listed in the 7-9M expected value range with the exception of Junis, who is pegged as a RP at around 5M.  Junis has had some SP experience and we've seen him over the last couple of years with the Giants, so he might be one of those guys on our radar.  Ryu, if healthy, would be nice to have as a LHP and would even be a person of interest in the opening 2 games of the season in Korea.  Don't know how much he has left in the tank or whether he'd sign for under 6M.  Lorenzen might be the only other of the remaining 3 I'd take a chance on, but he's probably out of our price range.   1-2 year deal tops with total package around 8-10M might do it for Junis or Ryu if we wait long enough.

Not sure how much “under the radar” these guys are … maybe to fans but probably not to the teams looking for pitching. Except for Carrasco, they all did have good results in 2023 (debate some injury linger effects) … not great results but good enough in this market to create demand … and keep their asking price up. Have heard a number of teams asking on Paxton. Except for Lorenzen all had “limited” innings or flip that Lorenzen may have a high demand because he can post up for a full season with decent results.

Limited budget … three offensive positions that HAVE to be filled … how does Preller balance the gamble on one of these pitchers with the price drain on the budget given the other options for SP and the other needs? Is there a priority order for adds … e.g. settle at least one (maybe two) offensive positions first then check the money left before addressing the next moves?

Padres may just wait to see the last man standing of the pitchers … hope that player is desperate to sign a low ball contract maybe with incentives and the belief that on the Padres’ staff he will get clear path to starting and pitch of a potential contender with a plus pitching coach.

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 18, 2024, 12:07 pm

Detroit just DFA Tyler Nevin … has not had much success in the ML but still just 26 and has done well in AAA … if he clears waivers might the Padres sign him to a minor league deal to boost EP? Padres seem to like local players even if just supporting the minors. I guess since he is at league minimum … might claim him off waivers (they have the roster room and could DFA him again when needed since he is out of MiL options).

Not going to change the Padres’ 2024 … but still could be good move.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 18, 2024, 12:27 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 17, 2024, 3:29 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on January 17, 2024, 2:12 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 17, 2024, 1:59 pm

https://x.com/dnevin_david/status/1747388193731735877?s=20

 

But we can't develop prospects.....

How many were pitching v. position? How many stayed in the MLs? How many were successful in MLs? And how many were drafted by SD and made the ML in a SD uni? And SD is really middle of the pack in this graphic.

Come on Mr P. not really a great graphic to prove a point.

Yeah I would definitely need a lot more information to draw any real conclusions about our developmental abilities than what that provides. I don't think any of us really see Chandler Seagle as a testament to our ability to develop players.

Just passing it along Booster....not my graphic.

But it at least points out that a higher percentage make the majors than most teams.

To hear Padre fans talk we should be last on the list.

It may not be detailed....but it means something in comparison to those at the bottom.

We tend to forget all about guys like Lauer/Naylor/Lucchessi etc. who were traded some time ago and are still carving out a career.