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OFFSEASON 2023-24
#1421 · January 17, 2024, 8:24 am
Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 17, 2024, 7:43 amHere's an outside the box trade idea. I wonder if AJ could flip King along with someone like Zavala to the Orioles for Austin Hays and Coby Mayo. Basically you would turn 2 years of a starter into 2 years of a CF and swap a prospect for a better/major league ready prospect. Mayo could cover 3B or 1B while Manny is limited and potentially head to the OF when he's back in the field. With 2 bats added with a fairly minimal increase in salary we might be able to squeeze in a deal for a Snell or Montgomery under the tax threshold. That would be the real key to making this type of move. From the Orioles perspective they turn some of their OF depth into a starter without taking as big of a prospect hit as they would in a deal for someone like Cease. Just something I've been thinking about.
While not opposed to the trade idea, I do have a couple of questions/concerns. A side note, BTV has this as a slight overpay for BAL, so maybe a non essential MiL needs to be added from the SD side (not a big deal though).
Not sure that after the trade we would have the dollars to sign either Snell or Montgomery. Not really interested in spending big money on Snell anyway to be honest. And with the amount of SP prospects on the way, do we really want to add another big, long term contract for Montgomery? Doesnt sound like a good spot to spend limited funds for this season.
While I like the idea of both players coming from BAL, they are both RHH and SD is so RHH heavy as it is, wish one of the two was a LHH. But if Mayo can play LF, and MLB prospect evaluation thinks he can, he does seem like a prototypical LFer at the cheap for many years. And I guess he could be 1B or DH to make room for Marsee if Marsee can not handle CF defensively.
And while Hays does have two years of control, will one of our true CFers be ready by that time? It seems like there may still be a year gap between Hays control and the true CFers being ready.
On the positive side of the trade suggestion though, SD does get a true CF, and a power solution for either 1B or LF, both spots of need. And while maybe we dont spend big on Snell or Montgomery, could we not find a midlevel SP or two, and still spend on the bench at that time?
#1422 · January 17, 2024, 8:40 am
Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 17, 2024, 7:43 amHere's an outside the box trade idea. I wonder if AJ could flip King along with someone like Zavala to the Orioles for Austin Hays and Coby Mayo. Basically you would turn 2 years of a starter into 2 years of a CF and swap a prospect for a better/major league ready prospect. Mayo could cover 3B or 1B while Manny is limited and potentially head to the OF when he's back in the field. With 2 bats added with a fairly minimal increase in salary we might be able to squeeze in a deal for a Snell or Montgomery under the tax threshold. That would be the real key to making this type of move. From the Orioles perspective they turn some of their OF depth into a starter without taking as big of a prospect hit as they would in a deal for someone like Cease. Just something I've been thinking about.
Pitching pitching pitching. Give about zero chance of the Padres wanting to sign either Snell or Mongomery and AAV / contract lenght they will get for some other team … even if they could squeeze it in in 2024. With the current bevy of big money long term contracts with aging stars add another would just clog up the roster / payroll for the next 4-5 years.
Could even argue that King for 2 years at a very low cost may be more productive than either Snell or Montgomery. Clearly a gamble that King’s 2023 was real … but then again Snell’s 2023 was a break from is previous few years. Snell’s $30MM potential vs King’s $2MM is pretty big for the confidence differential … and probably could make a better roster by using the $28MM on other players … e.g. go directly for Bellinger in CF.
Just not seeing a big money / long term move coming this winter via FA or trade. Part is the 2024 payroll but a lot of ownership / financial unknowns going forward and until those are resolved on the non-baseball side, likely to be very conservative in spending on the baseball side.
Until I see something different, expect the Padres to wait to the last minute to do some FA signings of desperate veterans at the lowest possible cost … use them as placeholders until the first wave of prospects are called up at some point mid-season … then the veterans are discarded. One decision point may be the trade deadline … if the Padres are in it could see some trades for “rentals” (should have the payroll space) or if the Padres are out if the race see the Padres be sellers of the likes of Kim, Cronenworth, and even some of the pitching (e.g. King, Suarez, De Los Santos, et al).
#1423 · January 17, 2024, 9:51 am
Love to get those bats, even though right handed, but pitching too thin to give up King. The other part of this is that Hays will make more than King in arbitration and is not really a CF, so not really filling the most important defensive position left to fill.
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fenn68
#1424 · January 17, 2024, 10:02 am
Time to resurrect an old trade idea. Alek Manoah.
Apparently the Blue Jays have inked the Cuban SP Rodriguez … probably knocking Alek Manoah out of a starting role. Some have suggested that the Blue Jays and Manoah had some conflict last season … so could now be trade material.
Now who is Manoah … SP, 26, at league minimum with 4 more control years and two more minor league options. Outstanding 2021 (3.22 ERA) and 2022 (2.24 ERA) BUT a major collapse in 2023 (5.87 ERA).
I guess the trade value may be a big debate … depending a bit on how motivated TOR is to move him. Other teams have to make a call on Manoah’s 2023 … a one off or the sign of a problem … does set their size of their offer. However, a lot of teams want SP … so the demand side is there (given salary and control with upside).
What might TOR hold out for before trading Manoah? Not what we would want to give (usually a lot less than TOR wants / needs) but what is the maximum would the Padres give that satisfies Toronto’s wants/needs?
Not sure what TOR really needs (wants) but RP may be the primary need.
#1425 · January 17, 2024, 11:06 am
Quote from fenn68 on January 17, 2024, 10:02 amTime to resurrect an old trade idea. Alek Manoah.
Apparently the Blue Jays have inked the Cuban SP Rodriguez … probably knocking Alek Manoah out of a starting role. Some have suggested that the Blue Jays and Manoah had some conflict last season … so could now be trade material.
From what I have read in places, I am thinking that the biggest needs for TOR is replacing departing FA players Chapman, Merrifield, and Belt. We can not help with the Belt since we need a 1B as well. But SD could help replace Chapman and Merrifield with either Kim or Crone. They have signed Kiner-Falefa, so maybe Crone as a LHH appeals to them, with IKF taking 3B and Crone going to 2B.
Problem is, that removes a LHH from us, and thats where SD is very shallow. So back to Kim? Kim probably has higher value than Manoah, so could we get something else from TOR along with Manoah?
Maybe Kim for Manoah and Biggio?
#1426 · January 17, 2024, 1:23 pm
Quote from Randy Manese on January 17, 2024, 9:51 amLove to get those bats, even though right handed, but pitching too thin to give up King. The other part of this is that Hays will make more than King in arbitration and is not really a CF, so not really filling the most important defensive position left to fill.
I would argue that I feel much better about our pitching pipeline and development under Niebla and company than I do our position player pipeline and development.
On the pitching side we've got Snelling, Thorpe, Iriarte, Mazur, and Bergert as starters who could potentially debut this year. Add in the young guys who have already debuted like Vasquez, Brito, Avila and Waldron plus the relief prospects like Jacob, Kopps, Reynolds and Kolek and I feel like we'll be able to fill out a staff around the established options.
I'm not as confident that we're going to find a CF, LF and 1B/DH type ready to step in from the likes of Merrill, Pauley, Marsee, Martorella, Castanon and Ornelas. There could be the same number of spots to fill with fewer options. More would have to go right and you would probably be forced to put some square pegs in round holes from a defensive standpoint.
I like King a lot. I'm also worried about his ability to stay healthy and effective as a full time starter. He's got a significant injury history. He also more than doubled his 2022 innings total to get to 104.2 last season. The last time he broke 100 was in the minors in 2018. Also keep in mind that I'm suggesting the trade in tandem with a free agent move for a top starter. Losing King doesn't think out the pitching in that scenario. As far as the salaries of the players involved is concerned the gap between a minimum salary for Mayo and a free agent bat should more than offset what would probably be about a 3m gap between King and Hays.
This is more to Fenn's argument. I would say with the amount of long term money they have tied up in old or aging players they really need to keep pushing to win in the current window. Obviously we're scaling spending back a bit and are going to have to start integrating younger players. With the number of holes we have left to fill and most of our prospects probably still in need of a bit more seasoning I still expect we'll see a trade or 2. It would be pretty tough to fill out the roster in a way we feel good about while staying out of the luxury tax strictly through free agency at this point.
#1427 · January 17, 2024, 1:34 pm
Other than next season when Darvish is due $21 mil the rest of his contract is basically for Sean Manaea money.
If he and Joe can stay healthy their deals will look better and better with every off season.
#1428 · January 17, 2024, 1:42 pm
Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 17, 2024, 1:23 pmQuote from Randy Manese on January 17, 2024, 9:51 amLove to get those bats, even though right handed, but pitching too thin to give up King. The other part of this is that Hays will make more than King in arbitration and is not really a CF, so not really filling the most important defensive position left to fill.
I would argue that I feel much better about our pitching pipeline and development under Niebla and company than I do our position player pipeline and development.
I think you are correct in the fact that SD has a history of producing better pitching prospects than position players. And I feel better about Hays in CF than Randy does.
I think the point of your original post I felt was least necessary; at least to start the season, was another big, long term contract even for a SP. And especially Snell. But to your point, could we not find a FA SP that would be equivalent to King? Even through a different trade?
And to repeat, the biggest issue with the players being acquired in the trade is they are both RHH. And I get it, if you can hit you can hit, but would still prefer some better L/R balance on the SD team. Now IF we could substitute Hays for Mullins, I would be more excited about that.
#1429 · January 17, 2024, 1:59 pm
#1430 · January 17, 2024, 2:12 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on January 17, 2024, 1:59 pmhttps://x.com/dnevin_david/status/1747388193731735877?s=20
But we can't develop prospects.....
How many were pitching v. position? How many stayed in the MLs? How many were successful in MLs? And how many were drafted by SD and made the ML in a SD uni? And SD is really middle of the pack in this graphic.
Come on Mr P. not really a great graphic to prove a point.