Quote from fenn68 on January 15, 2024, 11:20 am

CF is my #1 worry primarily due to the lack of quality options … whereas, see the chance of better quality for LF/1B/DH. I guess if they can’t land “average” offense … opt for the best defense and a low cost. Having a CF is usually considered important. FA? Trade? As it stands:

Azocar / Marsee (L) as a platoon is what has to be topped. At least they are league minimum and clearly Marsee is a wild card.

Mercado as a minor league FA is “possible” if he can regain any of his rookie quality … which he has not in recent years. After that nothing in system near ready.

Very very unlikely they move Tatis or Kim to CF … maybe a long shot Batten who is athletic enough and has the speed but not a real solution. Cronenworth does not look like a CF candidate.

FA? Taylor has the defense but a marginal hitter at probably an excessive contract given the other team needs and the budget limit. Jankowski / Hicks are possible but neither have held major CF roles for years not sure where (at their ages) the defense currently stands.

Trade? Maybe the best option … if I can figure out an available CF … who carries an acceptable contract … and does not require trading a top prospect (or one of the core ML pieces). Maybe the team that signs Bellinger for CF frees up someone?

Still struggling to find (at a fair cost) anyone to be reliably better than Azocar / Marsee (L) / Mercado and the potential signing of Jankowski (L) / Hicks (#). Reliably is a key word given the budget.

Quote from fenn68 on January 15, 2024, 12:02 pm

On the international scene … Kemp was quoted during the De Vries presser that he is now focusing on quantity. Plans to sign 9-10 today out of Venezuela … 9-10 in the next day or two from the DR … then some from Mexico … and a couple from Columbia.

 

Quote from brent wolff on January 15, 2024, 12:26 pm

From Baseball America:

The Padres signed the top international prospect for the second consecutive year, agreeing to a $4.2 million bonus with 17-year-old shortstop Leodalis De Vries at the start of the 2024 signing period.

De Vries signed the second-highest bonus of the class, according to Baseball America’s bonus board. He is considered the top prospect based on pure talent.

A year ago, the Padres signed 16-year-old catcher Ethan Salas to a $5.6 million bonus at the start of the international signing period. The catcher, who turned 17 in June, reached Double-A by the end of the season and enters 2024 as one of the top prospects in baseball. Salas could become the youngest player to ever rank in the Top 10 of a Baseball America preseason Top 100 when we release our list on Wednesday.

While it’s unwise to assume De Vries (or any prospect) can match the pace of Salas’ exceptionally rare ascent through the lower minors, the 6-foot-1, 185-pound native of the Dominican Republic arrives in pro ball with a polished offensive game.

Here’s an updated report on De Vries from Baseball America’s Ben Badler:

On pure talent, De Vries is the best international prospect in this class. With a bonus that should exceed $4 million, De Vries is a polished hitter for 17, with significant game experience and a knack for consistently getting on base. 

He uses his hands well at the plate with a compact, adjustable swing that has good path through the hitting zone and enables him to cover the plate well with a low swing-and-miss rate. It’s a mature offensive approach for his age, with the ability to slow the game down at the plate, comfort using the opposite field with backspin or turning on pitches on the inner third. It’s a good mix of high contact and impact, with De Vries showing the bat speed and loft to drive the ball out of the park in games with potential above-average power. 

De Vries generates plenty of attention for his offensive game, but his hand-eye coordination and heady, instinctive play are evident at shortstop as well. He’s an average runner who has the hands and actions for shortstop, along with an average arm that has a chance to tick up. Some scouts think De Vries could end up at second or third base, with the offensive upside to develop into an impact player at those spots as well, but he should continue to develop at shortstop and has the athleticism that could allow him to stick there long term.

I'm excited to see DeVries join Salas, Merrill, Snelling, Lesko, Thorpe, Head, Zavala, & Mazur in the system.

Other signings reported by BA for the Padres:

Humberto Cruz, RHP, Mexico
Yunny Tovar, LHP, Venezuela
Clay Winklaar, OF, Curacao
Kevin Tamburini, SS, Venezuela
Marco Eluscat, LHP, Dominican Republic
Juan Martinez, SS, Venezuela

Cruz was rated as a potential breakout candidate.  Go Pads!

Quote from fenn68 on January 15, 2024, 12:41 pm

Still hung up on CF … could the Padres offer up a pitcher to STL for Dylan Carlson … 25, switch hitter, 3 years control, about $2.6MM. Three years ago a top prospect who had a very good debut … a little less in 2022 … and a poor season in 2023 (in part due to an ankle injury). STL has an abundance of OF on the ML roster with Carlson ticketed for the bench plus an elite CF prospect in AA (Scott).

STL would like to bolster RP and may be also tempered with a future SP given they signed a bunch of older SP for this season.

With Suarez, De Los Santos, and Go from the RH side … might Wilson (league minimum, 4 years control) be a match. Wilson has the remaining upside with a big FB and has delivered two seasons with ERA sub-4.0 in over 50 innings each season. He is already 29.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 15, 2024, 1:31 pm

Apparently Humberto Cruz is 17 and throws 93-94mph

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 15, 2024, 1:42 pm

In a look back vs the you are here view consider the August 2, 2022 trade to get Soto and Bell (allowed to go as a FA after 2022). Padres were have said to pay a steep price in prospect talent but look at what they are doing (2023):

1. Abrams: 614 PA … 90 wRC+ … 2.1 WAR

2. Gore: 136 innings … 4.42 ERA …1.3 WAR

3. Wood: Top 100 prospect (#8)

4. Hassell: out of Top 100 (WASH #8) and A+/AA 221/324/321

5. Susana: WASH #12 and in low A 63 innings … 5.14 ERA

6. Voit: released

So far, not as impactful as thought.

Then consider December 7, 2023 the Soto / Grisham trade to the NYY. Padres get:

1. King: 104.2 innings … 2.75 ERA … 2.2 WAR

2. Vazquez: 37.2 innings … 2.87 ERA … 0.1 WAR

3  Brito: 90.1 innings … 4.28 ERA … 0.4 WAR

4. Thorpe: Top 100 prospect (#99)

5. Higashioka: 260 PA … 86 wRC+ … 1.7 WAR (can be considered a offset for Grisham who with 555 PA had a 91 wRC+ and also a 1.7 WAR but played twice as much)

Going forward still a lot of projection but for 2024 … the Padres may be better off with the group they got vs the group they traded.

Quote from Randy Manese on January 16, 2024, 12:30 am

There are several ways of looking at the Soto trade.   If we hadn't made the Soto trade in 2022, may not have made the playoffs - Bell also was instrumental in getting there, so that's the first part of it.

In 2023, we didn't have Abrams at ss but we had Bogaerts and/or Kim who both outperformed Abrams in both wRC+ and WAR.  Advantage San Diego.  We didn't have Gore in 2023, but we had Lugo and Wacha as SPs and both outperformed Gore.  Advantage San Diego.  Wood, Hassell and Susana were not in the majors in 2023 but Soto was and despite a slow start, had very good numbers by the end of the season which helped the Padres stay in the race until the last week or so despite an 82-80 record.  Advantage San Diego.  Even if we kept Soto for 2024, he was going to be a FA in 2025 and either we would have gotten just a draft pick or whatever a rental of Soto for a couple of months would bring.  Instead, we got at least 2 better than average pitchers in King and Thorpe with the possibility that Vasquez and Brito may also develop and contribute.  Advantage San Diego.

Another way of looking at this is how did the Padres recover system-wide after making this "impactful" trade.  One could argue that Merrill is going to be a better overall player than Abrams because of his superior hit tool (and much higher OBP and lower K rate) and emerging power; doesn't have Abrams' SB speed but at worst, they could be equal in wRC+/WAR.  Lost Gore, but got Lesko and Snelling - both could be at least as good as the Gore that is now pitching and soon. Wood could become a monster hitter despite striking out over 30% of the time, however, Ethan Salas will be the better and more valuable player at a critical position.  Head, Zavala, Marsee or Pauley all could be better OF prospects in the long run than Hassell.  And there are ton of pitchers - Mazur, Iriarte, Bergert to name a few that are much further along than Susana.  So the Padres have covered their "losses" well by excellent scouting and development plus they got the 4 pitchers from the Yankees besides the actual performance of Soto in 2023.

Note:  Padres just signed De Vries - likely he might turn out to be better than Abrams or Merrill.  Padres scouting has gotten a lot better than in 2016, when they signed International Free Agent Luis Almanzar as potentially their next great shortstop.  Can't change all that happened to make the 2023 season a disappointing one, but there is a lot to be hopeful about - maybe even for 2024.

Quote from fenn68 on January 16, 2024, 5:13 pm

Did hear someone say (second hand) that we should not expect any roster adds for another 3 weeks or so. I guess not only the Padres but most of baseball are slow playing the process to get players to just drop their demands.

Open the question on the rules for the Padres’ roster going into the season opener in S.Korea. Those games are scheduled for March 20-21 but they depart before that (last ST game on March 14) then a couple of days to return before two exhibition games at PETCO (March 25-26). Then home opener at PETCO on March 28.

Since the games in S.Korea are regular season games … do the Padres have to get down to the 26 man roster for those games? With ST starting mid Feb … and with a lot of open slots (and delaying any new adds) … not a lot of time to sort through any battles for those open slots.

Going to be even more of a challenge for any “prospect” to convince the Padres to retain them with such limited work (or maybe they have already made that call). Could be the plan to add some veterans with proven track records (and healthy) and just go with them no matter who they are … the worry about any upgrades alter.

Veteran hitters should be OK … a bit worried about stretching out the SP with the limited work due to the travel time.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 17, 2024, 7:43 am

Here's an outside the box trade idea. I wonder if AJ could flip King along with someone like Zavala to the Orioles for Austin Hays and Coby Mayo. Basically you would turn 2 years of a starter into 2 years of a CF and swap a prospect for a better/major league ready prospect. Mayo could cover 3B or 1B while Manny is limited and potentially head to the OF when he's back in the field. With 2 bats added with a fairly minimal increase in salary we might be able to squeeze in a deal for a Snell or Montgomery under the tax threshold. That would be the real key to making this type of move. From the Orioles perspective they turn some of their OF depth into a starter without taking as big of a prospect hit as they would in a deal for someone like Cease. Just something I've been thinking about.