Quote from fenn68 on December 27, 2019, 10:37 am

Seems that OF is not the highest priority for teams ... falling behind pitching (big demand) and the position players at C/SS/3B.

The bad ... that kills any trade value with Myers given the low cost alternatives lurking on the market. Also, not much demand for the likes of Naylor, et al in the SD OF queue.

The good ... Padres have a lot decent pitching ... ML and prospects that are controllable at a low cost ... so decent trade chips given the demand for pitching.

For what it would take to move Myers’ contract ... probably would hurt the Padres more than help with the level of future talent they would have to include.

Still see the best way out of this is playing Myers in RF ... lower in the batting order ... and just stop messing with him all over the diamond / line-up. 2020 eats up a year of guarantee and maybe that stability gets him back to at least that player who can deliver 30 HR / 30 SB. Let Grisham / Margot battle out CF.

Quote from fenn68 on December 28, 2019, 4:55 am

Kirby Yates and the Padres will be exchanging numbers for his arbitration soon unless they agree beforehand. Reports are that both sides are interested in signing an extension ... terms as always is the debate. Keep in mind that his FA after this season will be his last shot at a big contract ... so not going to sign on the cheap. Consider Will Smith who just signed as a FA with Atlanta for $40MM/3 years ($13.3 AAV).

Smith (30) ..... 34 saves .... 2.55 ERA .... 1.2 WAR

Yates (32) ...... 41 saves .... 1.19 ERA .... 3.4 WAR

Yates may be 2 years older but he is also significantly better ... so he as to be looking at 3 years (that could translate into his arbitration year plus 2 year extension). If the assumption is his arbitration will come in at $6.5MM then add 2 extension years at maybe $30MM ... a deal worth $36.5MM/3 years might be the midpoint of debate.

Given the Padres want to turn 2020 into a winning season and they have no PROVEN closer option past Yates ... can’t see them trading him. Option 1 then is take the arbitration decision for 1 year and either deal him at the deadline or let him walk as a FA after the season. Option 2 sign him to an extension. (Note: getting a player to sign a new deal late in the season or re-sign as a FA is not easy once they get the taste of FA and others start courting them combined with the loss of goodwill by not getting the extension before the season).

Probably a question of extend him now or let him go for 2021.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 28, 2019, 5:24 am

Hoping we can get him around 3/30 so he will be attractive to other teams at the deadline if not contending this season.

We have never had trouble finding a quality Closer.

It seems it's the one thing we've almost "never" not had.

I'm all for keeping Yates for 3 seasons but at his age,and with the volatility of the position in general....added to the bevy of young explosive arms we have at the ready,it may be more advantageous to trade him at the deadline "if we are out of it".

I'm just not sure we want a 35 year old Closer making $10 mil+ in 2 years.

Of course it also matters if we have an obvious need at the time.

Building the Farm has caused us to have less and less positions that we can't fill from the system....so there's that.

Which is nice....

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 28, 2019, 8:26 am

We have been focused for the past decade on how to shuffle the pieces on series of very poor teams to build for the future ... now that the focus in winning in 2020 and legitimately contending in 2021 and beyond with the arrival of the elite prospects ... does the player movement strategy change more to short run benefits?

Paying top dollar for an aging closer (no matter how good now) in the past made little sense and dealing him for prospects made sense. Then “gamble” on finding a new closer ... on a losing team that is a fair risk. However, if the intent is to win near term, that gamble on finding an elite closer in the bushes may be too much of a risk (past may not repeat).

Given the internal options ... who really need a season to see if they can move up to the next level ... Castillo, Munoz, and Guerra are all potentially the closer in waiting.

On one hand, if they don’t extend Yates and the internal options fail ... might be very hard to re-sign Yates (and may cost more on the free market). Not good for winning in 2021. On the other hand, if they do extend Yates and the internal options excel then the Padres have an elite pen (assuming Yates does not break down) or Yates becomes a quality trade chip with 2 years control or if Yates does breakdown ... then dead money.

How to balance the risks in all options ... and achieve the best scenario for contending in 2021-22.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 28, 2019, 8:33 am

By all means extend him.

But it could turn out that by the deadline Munoz or Castillo or Baez or,or could prove worthy.

Im just saying extend him but keep options open if it means getting the 2b we need....or a CF if Trammell struggles etc.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 28, 2019, 8:54 am

I've said before I think Preller/Pads made a huge mistake not extending him a year ago when they had much more leverage with 2 years of arb left; it would have followed closely to Brad Hand's contract extension timing but possibly been even less than that one.   It does take 2 to tango, but I have a hard time believing Yates who had just earned 1 MM for the first time & was in line for 3 MM more in ARb wouldn't have signed a 3 yr (buying out 1 FA yr) with option deal for maybe even 15-16 MM (3/5/8?) then.

Way higher than that now.  But I still firmly maintain a guy entering even his last year of arb does NOT get the same deal a true FA does.  The team is taking all the risk.  You're basically handing him the true FA salary/AAV of Smith by making up for the suppressed arb year @ 6.5 in the 2nd 2 years?   In other words, Yates AAV HAS to be lower to account for the fact that 1/3 or 1/4 of his extension is during an arb year (plus his age).  There's a near 0% chance Pads extend Yates at 15 MM x TWO?

You are correct on timing though... think by the time arb $ deadline arrives, the Pads 2020 team will be largely set, which will inform how they proceed with Yates.  Strongly suspect Hawaiian Yates, his wife & young kids don't want to leave SD as Pads reach their sweet spot to contend.   He wants to win, not going to discount, and it's his one big FA deal, but predict he extends at something between the structure of Pomeranz' deal & what you're proposing for the financial security & stability for his family.  A signing bonus even close to Pom's would be very significant to Yates career earnings; esp if paid 100% at front of deal.... he's still "only" earned 4 MM > minimum in career; all in last 2 years.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 28, 2019, 9:13 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 27, 2019, 10:37 am

Seems that OF is not the highest priority for teams ... falling behind pitching (big demand) and the position players at C/SS/3B.

The bad ... that kills any trade value with Myers given the low cost alternatives lurking on the market. Also, not much demand for the likes of Naylor, et al in the SD OF queue.

The good ... Padres have a lot decent pitching ... ML and prospects that are controllable at a low cost ... so decent trade chips given the demand for pitching.

For what it would take to move Myers’ contract ... probably would hurt the Padres more than help with the level of future talent they would have to include.

Still see the best way out of this is playing Myers in RF ... lower in the batting order ... and just stop messing with him all over the diamond / line-up. 2020 eats up a year of guarantee and maybe that stability gets him back to at least that player who can deliver 30 HR / 30 SB. Let Grisham / Margot battle out CF.

Understatement!   Look at Kole Calhoun vs Ryu... an overly simplistic take is that both guys are being paid 4 MM / WAR over the life of their contracts...   But Calhoun is SOOO much more likely to actually deliver it than Ryu that it has to veer into the territory of statistical certainty.  Calhoun has delivered 2+ fWAR 5 seasons, Ryu phenomenal last 1.5 years, but older & very injury prone.

Hard to believe every 5th day SP's get valued this much more than everyday guys who are above replacement value?  But think it's that fact that there's 150 SP's in the league & the difference makers are so rare they can swing the pendulum.  With OF, especially corners, maybe less dramatic impact except for the few elite guys.

Quote from fenn68 on December 28, 2019, 9:55 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 28, 2019, 8:54 am

I've said before I think Preller/Pads made a huge mistake not extending him a year ago when they had much more leverage with 2 years of arb left; it would have followed closely to Brad Hand's contract extension timing but possibly been even less than that one.   It does take 2 to tango, but I have a hard time believing Yates who had just earned 1 MM for the first time & was in line for 3 MM more in ARb wouldn't have signed a 3 yr (buying out 1 FA yr) with option deal for maybe even 15-16 MM (3/5/8?) then.

Way higher than that now.  But I still firmly maintain a guy entering even his last year of arb does NOT get the same deal a true FA does.  The team is taking all the risk.  You're basically handing him the true FA salary/AAV of Smith by making up for the suppressed arb year @ 6.5 in the 2nd 2 years?   In other words, Yates AAV HAS to be lower to account for the fact that 1/3 or 1/4 of his extension is during an arb year (plus his age).  There's a near 0% chance Pads extend Yates at 15 MM x TWO?

You are correct on timing though... think by the time arb $ deadline arrives, the Pads 2020 team will be largely set, which will inform how they proceed with Yates.  Strongly suspect Hawaiian Yates, his wife & young kids don't want to leave SD as Pads reach their sweet spot to contend.   He wants to win, not going to discount, and it's his one big FA deal, but predict he extends at something between the structure of Pomeranz' deal & what you're proposing for the financial security & stability for his family.  A signing bonus even close to Pom's would be very significant to Yates career earnings; esp if paid 100% at front of deal.... he's still "only" earned 4 MM > minimum in career; all in last 2 years.

 

At 32 and probably viewing his one chance at a major contract ... Yates will likely not give up 2021-22 for less than something around Smith's deal in those FA years. Few players seem to be worried about injury ... especially if they have been healthy ... and will take the risk for the bigger payday ... and even greater long term security (money). Clearly the see RP/Closers in demand ... so the floor on his future contract should still be high.

Can't really compare to Pomeranz who does not have a compelling track record as a RP let alone closer plus what got Pomeranz signed was adding that 4th year and an $8MM signing bonus over his $4MM base for 2020. $34MM/4 (AAV at $8.25). With Yates and the Padres ... the 2020 via arbitration at $6.5MM is the assumed given so the extension value is what really up for debate in both years and dollars (base and signing bonus).

Now MAYBE Yates would take a lower AAV but as a trade-off demand the buyout of 3, maybe 4, FA years for real security.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 28, 2019, 10:19 am

I don't know on Yates.... if I was him & someone came to me & offered 20-25 MM guaranteed (above the 1 + 3 + 6.5 I've already made & will make this year) vs the risk of injury or performance decline (or both), it would be VERY hard to turn it down just for the possibility of "more"...  i.e. 25-30 MM range NOW vs 6.5 +  30?  35? 40?!?! for a 34 year old FA?  Maybe 40-45 MAX "possible"?

I'm really dying to know (Madfriars staff?  anyone?) if we KNOW if Preller/Pads did or did not approach Yates last year about extending him... that would shed a lot of light on likelihood of an extension happening this offseason...  If Yates walked away from what would have been 4-5+ times his career to date earnings last year (1 + 3 MM 1st 2 arb years), he might be more willing to gamble on maybe 2 - 2.5 times his career earnings now ( 1 + 3 + 6.5); 10 MM in pocket is a pretty good security blanket.