Quote from Brian Connelly on November 13, 2019, 9:30 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 12, 2019, 1:57 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 12, 2019, 1:30 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 12, 2019, 12:48 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 12, 2019, 12:45 pm

sigh.   "Heads will roll if we don't win.... with our 130 MM payroll:  5 MM over last year".

"AND let's come out & say it right now, so any agent with a good player including Zack Wheeler can immediately run away & block our calls"

"Let's also telegraph that we have given up on Urias, so we can ensure we diminish his trade value as much as possible right as we try to trade him as a 6 yr control starting 2B or SS".  "We're giving up on the #30 MLB prospect from last year b/c the guy gave up too much AVG/OBP trying to hit for power... oh, wait, we told him to do that...  and he only had 23 HR anyway, so we're moving on to the #78 MLB prospect who hit .... 1 HR ... instead.  Don't worry, we're going to get him to alter his swing so he can hit for more power...."

:(:(:(

 

Payroll in 2019 was like $102mil... try +$40 mil.... and yes Myers +$15 mil plus is almost responsible for all the current payroll increases for 2020...

Wrong.  Ending 2019 payroll was about 125 MM.   CURRENT estimated 2020 payroll with dead $, known salaries, arb estimates, and 600K x # of minimum salary guys needed to fill roster (12 right now) is 120 MM.  This assumes perfect health (no one on IL) all season and no "Stammen" (or other FA vet RP taking his place).  If "Stammen" (re) signs, right at 125 MM+/-

Pads (or at least Acee as proxy) are coming right out & saying they will only raise payroll 4 - 12% overall (+ 5-15 MM) from both last year & current levels (assumes re-sign or replace Stammen @  4-5 MM) to move from a 70-win team to a "win now or heads will roll" team led by a rookie Manager whose highest managing level was Arizona rookie league.  If you're a Free Agent, are you headed to SD to "win now" in 2020 with these advance parameters?  Is it possible those paramters are WHY we have a rookie no-experience Manager AGAIN?  If you're Preller & it's blatantly obvious your job is on the line, yet you have a 0% chance of signing Strasburg or likely even Wheeler (how do you fit 20 MM x 5 yrs) due to these limitations, don't you just recklessly pull out the stops & start trading like a madman to save yourself since you can't sign the strength of the FA market, and there's not top tier help at the right positions in FA?  What other choice does he have?  Other teams KNOWING this reduces leverage to Preller.

Myers pay increase is 8.5 MM from 2019 to 2020.  While payroll in 2020 is almost identical right now to last year, due to big decrease in "dead $", you are correct that this is by far the biggest salary increase.

Myers salary in 2019 was 5,666,666 it jumps to 22,666,666 in 2020

This is inaccurate but is getting reported a lot.  This is what his salary is prorating his signing bonus, which in Myers case was paid in unequal, rising installments.  These figures only matter to a team up near the "cap" where they will be penalized for exceeding the cap.  Don't think there is any practical implication to the Pads.  Theoretically a small effect on a team acquiring him in trade & paying 100% of remaining contract, but again, not going to be a team up against the hard cap.

When the Pads extended Myers, the base salary structure was:  1/2/3/20/20/20/1 MM buyout (vs 2o MM option).   He also received a signing bonus of 15 MM spread over the 1st 3 yrs:    1/5.5/8.5 MM

So Myers 2019 SALARY was actually only 3 MM over the course of the season.  He just got paid (or will) the last chunk of his signing bonus of 8.5 MM this month.  Next 3 years he's just at 20 MM straight salary, then a 1 MM buyout (or 20 MM club option)

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 13, 2019, 9:32 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 13, 2019, 9:13 am

Maybe I'm going insane, or just putting way too much "stock" in the Acee article, but does it seem to anyone else like there are 2 different voices/outlooks coming out of the Padres Front Office?  One is saying Pads have the resources & flexibility to pursue Stras, other is saying no we don't & defining in black & white the payroll range & saying we're going to actively trade instead despite many good FA SP's available...  it just seems like "bad" for Pads perception wise from rest of league; like there's not a unified viewpoint?

Anyone have a take on this?

 

I think is a strategic, calculated BS.... I mean just last year everyone Lin, Fowler, etc.. "WE ARE NOT ON MACHADO or HARPER" circa Nov-Dec-January... then Feb rolls around "WE SEE AN OPPORTUNITY TO PURSUE ONE if not BOTH"... I mean is POKER 101.. Last year I predicted Machado to the PADRES -- ya'll laughed at my "pipedream"... Well I am going to Predict ONE of Wheeler/Stras/or Cole to the Padres this year... and by the way I think we sign Cole Hamels within the next 3-5 weeks if not sooner as well...

Quote from sportwarrior on November 13, 2019, 10:37 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 13, 2019, 9:13 am

Maybe I'm going insane, or just putting way too much "stock" in the Acee article, but does it seem to anyone else like there are 2 different voices/outlooks coming out of the Padres Front Office?  One is saying Pads have the resources & flexibility to pursue Stras, other is saying no we don't & defining in black & white the payroll range & saying we're going to actively trade instead despite many good FA SP's available...  it just seems like "bad" for Pads perception wise from rest of league; like there's not a unified viewpoint?

Anyone have a take on this?

 

It's always dangerous to put much stock into an Acee article.

Quote from fenn68 on November 13, 2019, 11:27 am

Agree on Acee’s (actually anyone’s) reporting should be not taken as firm fact when it comes to the Padres who are clearly tight lipped on most stuff (except maybe Fowler). So could be some strategic commentary.

A lot of moving parts having to do with trades / free agents that change the plan / direction of any team over the course of the winter. Not in now can be in later or visa versa.

Playing with the words .... so “have the resources & flexibility” could just mean they have the funds for a phone call to Boras and Preller has nothing better to do. Doesn’t mean they will be signing him or chase an escalating contract bidding.

Back to my other theme .... IF Cole or Strasburg are willing to sign “creative” contracts with deferred money that makes a fit easier (AAV may be important for luxury tax ... not a Padre issue ... cash flow is however the key). Then go my route of off loading some contracts and the base to add Cole / Strasburg is lower which allows BOTH the addition of one of them and stay within $130-140MM ... and even add Dickerson and Akiyama if that is the way to go.

So the pursuit to the TOR arm and the payroll target are not mutually exclusive .... just depends on what they do to make them both happen.

Since Boras is not likely to close a deal until Jan-Feb .... Padres keep in contact monitoring the price ... but should be pursuing the off loading of payroll between now and early next year so they have some certainty about their offer levels fitting the payroll target ... then go full bore on the TOR arm.

Use prospects / ML players to clear at a minimum $24MM from Myers and Kinsler ... not going to really damage the 2020 playoff run. (Can always debate which prospects get that done ... but probably can get done without any of the major prospect pieces.)

IF after the off-loading they can’t sign the TOR arm (they do have something to say about it) ... Padres are not that hurt for 2020 and are positioned to add contract money in next winter’s FA market or via a future trade.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 13, 2019, 11:34 am

So now the word is that we are trying to extend Tatis Jr.

Which of course would be awesome.

But how does that fit in with "this offseason"?

Trying to add offense.....a front line starter AND extend Tatis all while staying under $140 m?

I think the intention is to stay at or under $140....but if AJ has a chance to add a Rendon/Strasburg/Cole type player,or another

"star" via trade.....he has the option of going to Fowler and getting on his knees to beg for more.

So we either improve slightly and stay on budget or improve greatly and blow that thing out of the water...one or the other.

It would be an offseason for the ages IMO if AJ can improve this team greatly AND stay under the $140.

By greatly I mean improve the rotation AND the offense enough to make the difference for this team.

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 13, 2019, 11:42 am

Quote from David Nevin on November 13, 2019, 11:34 am

So now the word is that we are trying to extend Tatis Jr.

Which of course would be awesome.

But how does that fit in with "this offseason"?

Trying to add offense.....a front line starter AND extend Tatis all while staying under $140 m?

I think the intention is to stay at or under $140....but if AJ has a chance to add a Rendon/Strasburg/Cole type player,or another

"star" via trade.....he has the option of going to Fowler and getting on his knees to beg for more.

So we either improve slightly and stay on budget or improve greatly and blow that thing out of the water...one or the other.

It would be an offseason for the ages IMO if AJ can improve this team greatly AND stay under the $140.

By greatly I mean improve the rotation AND the offense enough to make the difference for this team.

 

I think if we target low cost young or otherwise talented MLBers by using prospect capital.. We can go hunting in the Mazara/Meadows/Benintendi/Whit/Baez/Contreras/Mancini/ type reserve and hit on 2 or 3 targets (combine making $10 or less mil in 2020) we could realistically splurge a bit/alot (if we move Myers) on SP in FAs while managing the Salary qyite well

Quote from BoosterSD on November 13, 2019, 11:53 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 13, 2019, 11:42 am

Quote from David Nevin on November 13, 2019, 11:34 am

So now the word is that we are trying to extend Tatis Jr.

Which of course would be awesome.

But how does that fit in with "this offseason"?

Trying to add offense.....a front line starter AND extend Tatis all while staying under $140 m?

I think the intention is to stay at or under $140....but if AJ has a chance to add a Rendon/Strasburg/Cole type player,or another

"star" via trade.....he has the option of going to Fowler and getting on his knees to beg for more.

So we either improve slightly and stay on budget or improve greatly and blow that thing out of the water...one or the other.

It would be an offseason for the ages IMO if AJ can improve this team greatly AND stay under the $140.

By greatly I mean improve the rotation AND the offense enough to make the difference for this team.

 

I think if we target low cost young or otherwise talented MLBers by using prospect capital.. We can go hunting in the Mazara/Meadows/Benintendi/Whit/Baez/Contreras/Mancini/ type reserve and hit on 2 or 3 targets (combine making $10 or less mil in 2020) we could realistically splurge a bit/alot (if we move Myers) on SP in FAs while managing the Salary qyite well

Are you talking Javier Baez from the Cubs? If so, you really need to do some research prior to posting. First off, IF we could get him, he is projected to make $9.3M in arbitration next season, so there goes your idea of 2 or 3 targets making a combined $10M or less. Second, here is the call to Epstein to trade for Baez. Hey, its AJP what do you want for Baez? Epstein has two answers. #1, Click - he hangs up. Or #2, Theo says cool, send me Gore, Patino, Mejia, and Tatis and then AJP hangs up.

There is NO WAY Baez is getting traded from CHC!!!!

I like your enthusiasm; however, may I suggest a couple of sites that could help with some of the monies that go along with players.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/nl-west/san-diego-padres/

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/san-diego-padres/contracts/

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 13, 2019, 12:11 pm

Yeah most of those guys aren't really on the market.

Those guys would require overwhelming their GM's with offers they can't refuse.

Costly.

Which is why I included Patino in my made up deals.

Either we give too much in prospects...or in $$...or both.

That's why I'm curious how AJ's gonna pull this off?

Either we aren't gonna get enough new talent to really turn the tables(without our own guys getting us there that is) or we are gonna blow past the $140 mark.

 

 

Quote from LynchMob on November 13, 2019, 1:53 pm

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/padres-ready-to-package-prospects-to-improve-mlb-roster.html