Quote from JasonE135 on November 12, 2019, 7:11 pm

You talk about most prospects fade away and have no value, and then you talk about using them to trade for Meadows. TB already hit on Meadows. They traded ARCHER for Glasnow and Meadows! I doubt that is the example you want to use to show how established major league players are worth so much more than prospects.

There was a guy on MLBTR saying how most prospects don't turn out. He said "How many of the top prospects from 2014 turned out? Almost none of them!" So I looked it up:

http://davidgonos.com/2014-top-50-prospects/

As you can see, at least half of these guys went on to have significant ml careers. Many have become stars. 6 of the top 10 have become stars, and a 7th(who was almost a guaranteed star) died. This bodes very well for a team with 4 top 50 players.

Quote from Commie on November 12, 2019, 7:35 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 12, 2019, 6:02 pm

Quote from Commie on November 12, 2019, 5:53 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on November 12, 2019, 5:37 pm

Quote from Commie on November 12, 2019, 5:30 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 12, 2019, 12:49 pm

Yeah I been kicking this around and say we got Price + Benintendi on a Myers + Lucchesi + Naylor + Arias + Morejon + Mejia type deal

Then followed with a Contreras for Hedges + Quantrill swap

followed by a Urias + Weathers + France + Ona for WHIT

With a final trade of Meadows for Patino + Margot + Edwards

Concluding with a FA signing of Hamels + Billy Hamilton + Stanmen

1B Hosmer 2B WHIT SS Tatis Jr 3B Machado C- CONTRERAS LF BENINTENDI CF MEADOWS RF Renfroe.....

BENCH - HAMILTON + Torrens/Allen + Garcia + Kinsler + Mejia-Bream (other)

SP - PRICE/Paddack/HAMELS/Richards/Lamet

BP- CL - Yates/ Stanmen/Munoz/Castillo/Baez/Bednar/Lauer/Strahm

Minors ready at some point in 2020-- Gore/Patino/Bolanos/Cantillo...... Miller/Trammell/Campusano/Ornelas... with yet another wave following led by CJ Abrams down the road

15 out.. 7 new faces in... a big roster turn over-- but only giving up 2 of our top 6 prospects and gaining big time pieces in return who are controlled for many seasons to come.. maybe not the ideal SP adds BUT 2 Veteran Gamers who will be lights out at Petco and above avg on the road.. how fast Gore takes to go from elite prospect to borderline ACE (like Paddack) will dictate how fast we could go from WC2 type wild entry to WS favorites (a la Houston).. But I think something along these lines is whats going to happen in 2020 offseason -- 7 new face in our 26.. and like 15 current faces or top 30 specs out--- sounds like a lot, but really feasible for this farm that would still boast Gore/Tramell/Campusano/CJ/ Manea/Head/Ornelas/Mears/Bolanos/etc.. etc...after all the moves

Day drinking again Henry?  What do you have against the organization's ability to compete for a sustained period? This post was just stiring the pot.

Maybe Padres ownership should just trade the Padre team, Qualcomm Stadium, the Convention Center and Pacific Beach to Dodgers ownership for their team. Save several moves.

No way I put PB in that deal. Counter with Oceanside.

they can have La Mesa and Escondido for all I care

Tough attaching La Mesa to the deal to get rid of Escondido, but I'd do it.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 12, 2019, 7:41 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on November 12, 2019, 7:11 pm

You talk about most prospects fade away and have no value, and then you talk about using them to trade for Meadows. TB already hit on Meadows. They traded ARCHER for Glasnow and Meadows! I doubt that is the example you want to use to show how established major league players are worth so much more than prospects.

There was a guy on MLBTR saying how most prospects don't turn out. He said "How many of the top prospects from 2014 turned out? Almost none of them!" So I looked it up:

http://davidgonos.com/2014-top-50-prospects/

As you can see, at least half of these guys went on to have significant ml careers. Many have become stars. 6 of the top 10 have become stars, and a 7th(who was almost a guaranteed star) died. This bodes very well for a team with 4 top 50 players.

Well obviously top 100 overall.. And what 3-5 per team then .. For the record Only Edwards and Patino are top 100 prospects I propose moving and only for Meadows or a similar 5 yr control player.. I am not trading Patino for 2 yrs of Bryant or Lindor.. It's Meadows or some equivalent 4-5 yr control dude in the same talent DNA grouping that Patino moves for..

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 12, 2019, 7:44 pm

And quit putting words in my mouth.. I said I would trade Patino even if he went on to win 3 CY awards for Meadows anyday of the week..

Quote from Commie on November 12, 2019, 7:49 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 12, 2019, 6:16 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on November 12, 2019, 5:37 pm

Quote from Commie on November 12, 2019, 5:30 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 12, 2019, 12:49 pm

Yeah I been kicking this around and say we got Price + Benintendi on a Myers + Lucchesi + Naylor + Arias + Morejon + Mejia type deal

Then followed with a Contreras for Hedges + Quantrill swap

followed by a Urias + Weathers + France + Ona for WHIT

With a final trade of Meadows for Patino + Margot + Edwards

Concluding with a FA signing of Hamels + Billy Hamilton + Stanmen

1B Hosmer 2B WHIT SS Tatis Jr 3B Machado C- CONTRERAS LF BENINTENDI CF MEADOWS RF Renfroe.....

BENCH - HAMILTON + Torrens/Allen + Garcia + Kinsler + Mejia-Bream (other)

SP - PRICE/Paddack/HAMELS/Richards/Lamet

BP- CL - Yates/ Stanmen/Munoz/Castillo/Baez/Bednar/Lauer/Strahm

Minors ready at some point in 2020-- Gore/Patino/Bolanos/Cantillo...... Miller/Trammell/Campusano/Ornelas... with yet another wave following led by CJ Abrams down the road

15 out.. 7 new faces in... a big roster turn over-- but only giving up 2 of our top 6 prospects and gaining big time pieces in return who are controlled for many seasons to come.. maybe not the ideal SP adds BUT 2 Veteran Gamers who will be lights out at Petco and above avg on the road.. how fast Gore takes to go from elite prospect to borderline ACE (like Paddack) will dictate how fast we could go from WC2 type wild entry to WS favorites (a la Houston).. But I think something along these lines is whats going to happen in 2020 offseason -- 7 new face in our 26.. and like 15 current faces or top 30 specs out--- sounds like a lot, but really feasible for this farm that would still boast Gore/Tramell/Campusano/CJ/ Manea/Head/Ornelas/Mears/Bolanos/etc.. etc...after all the moves

Day drinking again Henry?  What do you have against the organization's ability to compete for a sustained period? This post was just stiring the pot.

Maybe Padres ownership should just trade the Padre team, Qualcomm Stadium, the Convention Center and Pacific Beach to Dodgers ownership for their team. Save several moves.

Well I guess some here rather watch our "prospects" become value less and fade away-- remember the odds of hitting on ONE spec-- Tatis Jr-- Paddack-- thats 2 for us... and when was the last time we had that level of success with a prospect-- (despite having the BEST system in MLB a couple of times) -- Gwynn, Peavy, Derek Lee, Trea Turner, Fried and Kubler..... and thats over 40 yrs --- How many of our current "Top Prospects" are going to "make it" and how many are going to be meh (career 0-2 WAR types)... I am suggesting trades for 4 WAR players of which we have 1 (in 2019)..and havent had one (before Tatis Jr) since I dont know when... I mean Nix had value last yr (now you cant even give him away FREE) , Morejon strating to feel like a complete waste (but still perceived highly by many)... difference between Prospect currency and $$ is cash never expires.. Spec Currency is wildly flexible and anyone can go up or down in a hurry-- holding on to it when we have a legit path to acquired PROVEN $$ players (controllable) is just silly--- sure 2 yrs ago when Yelich became available and we wouldnt include Tatis Jr in the deal, that was good insight by AJP... BUT we dont have anyone (besides Gore) at that level of Spec #1 #2 overall.. Meadows is very much Yelich like early in his career-- if he is available why not pounce on it -- Bird in hand worth 2 in the bush-- and we have like 40 in the Bush-- lets get more Birds in Hand as we ramp this thing up

Respect and peace.

I completely understand your point. I think there will be big, painful deals that net good players. I just am not interested in the volume you suggest. I also think you suggest over pays in some deals, esp. the BOS one.

Digging down to the SD Padres #15 prospect for SD is Bolanos for MLB.com: J Rosario for Prospects Live. Do the same for other teams and there are few who match up. Point is that SD does not have to include their top prospects in a deal where the other teams in on the guys are offering cream of crop in their systems versus second tier in SD.  Pads should win that bidding war 9/10.

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 13, 2019, 6:40 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 12, 2019, 11:28 am

In Acee’s piece today he says the Padres payroll for 2020 will top out between $130MM and $140MM.

So, that should be factored into coming attractions and eliminates that BIG move for Cole / Strasburg (baring some creative contract cash flow) without reducing some of the current contracts. Hard pressed to see contention in 2020 without one of them.

So, I guess that loops us back to using prospects to move Myers and Kinsler contracts ... and maybe move off Hedges, Renfroe, Margot, Garcia for lower cost options. Not all mind you but enough to get the big contract in while “adjusting” the OF cost / quality.

But Myers / Kinsler are the keys.

So we've all heard AJ plans on trying to upgrade 2b,at least 2 OF spots and add a TOR Starter.

I'm more than anxious now to see how he pulls this all off and payroll tops out at $140.

It won't happen thru Free Agency that's for sure.....and even via trade you have to absorb the incoming contracts.

My guess is we go over the $140...because the alternative would be to not upgrade enough to win...and I just don't see that happening after

everything AJ and Fowler have been preaching.

 

 

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 13, 2019, 7:13 am

Back to my thought with that payroll target .... aggressive off-loading of current greater than minimum contracts for players that probably are not key to the future.

Some go in the upgrade trade .... Add Marte ... delete Margot and maybe someone else with a contract plus a prospect ...

Then the big elephant dealing prospects to move some (or all) of Myers and maybe Kinsler.

Those being off loaded really are not key to contending and logically the upgrades that result do more for contending.

Except for the big FA of Cole / Strasburg ... none of the other Padre targets are going to carry a major AAV. So if “strategic off loads” move the current $120MMish down to even $110MM ... $20-30MM can get Marte, Dickerson, Akiyama plus a contribution to a SP but shaving another $10MM (that is possible) should have the space to get that 2nd tier SP (e.g. Hamels type).

Minus Myers - Margot - Renfroe - Kinsler - Garcia - Hedges - Perdomo will save a lot (but will cost some prospect assets) .... then move the payroll up at the same time and “easy” to fit in an OF of Dickerson - Akiyama - Marte and then build the bench around league minimum types such as Cordero - Naylor - Gettys - France - Torrens - etc. IF they get lucky on moving the big salaries from Myers - Kinsler actually could be a player for Cole or Strasburg as an upgrade over the next tier options. Might help with some “creative” contract ... e.g. deferred money.

IT COULD HAPPEN! (But don’t hold your breath).

Quote from BoosterSD on November 13, 2019, 7:53 am

The key to getting Strasburg in house if they are interested, is a lower salary this season. After this season, the dead money for Kinsler, Oliveras, and the two buy outs of Warren and Loup are all gone. That is basically $13M, that they can use to pay Stras next year and years following. And as noted, if they can off load Myers for most or all based on prospects shipped with him, then those dollars can help as well.

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 13, 2019, 9:13 am

Maybe I'm going insane, or just putting way too much "stock" in the Acee article, but does it seem to anyone else like there are 2 different voices/outlooks coming out of the Padres Front Office?  One is saying Pads have the resources & flexibility to pursue Stras, other is saying no we don't & defining in black & white the payroll range & saying we're going to actively trade instead despite many good FA SP's available...  it just seems like "bad" for Pads perception wise from rest of league; like there's not a unified viewpoint?

Anyone have a take on this?