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Off Season Thread

The Dodgers are going to lose 3 more games this year than last after adding Betts and having Lux and May for a full season?

I think I saw where the 103 wins projected for them is the highest number ever for PECOTA.

They probably just can't see projecting even more wins than that.

Well they did lose Ryu (4.8 WAR), Maeda (2.5 WAR), Verdugo (2.2 WAR) .... and the odds of the aging Turner (3.4 WAR and age 35) and Kershaw (2.5 WAR and age 32) declining are good .... then consider Betts is taking ABs away from some combo of Pederson (3.0 WAR), Taylor (1.7 WAR), Hernandez (1.2 WAR), Pollack (0.9 WAR) which should lower all their WAR contributions.

Lux debuted with a .705 OPS below average wRC+ 87 ... elite prospect but no lock a major impact as a rookie.

Then consider Betts a wRC+ at Fenway of 146 vs. a wRC+ AWAY at 123 .... will going to LA take away some of his HOME advantage and will seeing different NL pitchers result in some months to adapt? Maybe his 6 WAR drops to 5 ?

I think there is a lot of room in all that to see them win less than their 106 in 2019 ... s0 103 seems reasonable from a forecasting perspective. Not really an issue since the next best in the forecast were SD and AZ at 79 wins ... 24 win difference leaves a lot of room for error and still get the same result.

 

Quote from fenn68 on February 12, 2020, 1:19 pm

Well they did lose Ryu (4.8 WAR), Maeda (2.5 WAR), Verdugo (2.2 WAR) .... and the odds of the aging Turner (3.4 WAR and age 35) and Kershaw (2.5 WAR and age 32) declining are good .... then consider Betts is taking ABs away from some combo of Pederson (3.0 WAR), Taylor (1.7 WAR), Hernandez (1.2 WAR), Pollack (0.9 WAR) which should lower all their WAR contributions.

Lux debuted with a .705 OPS below average wRC+ 87 ... elite prospect but no lock a major impact as a rookie.

Then consider Betts a wRC+ at Fenway of 146 vs. a wRC+ AWAY at 123 .... will going to LA take away some of his HOME advantage and will seeing different NL pitchers result in some months to adapt? Maybe his 6 WAR drops to 5 ?

I think there is a lot of room in all that to see them win less than their 106 in 2019 ... s0 103 seems reasonable from a forecasting perspective. Not really an issue since the next best in the forecast were SD and AZ at 79 wins ... 24 win difference leaves a lot of room for error and still get the same result.

 

I have LAD at 96 W's... SDP and DBacks somewhere between 83-88 W's...

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 12, 2020, 5:49 pm
Quote from fenn68 on February 12, 2020, 1:19 pm

Well they did lose Ryu (4.8 WAR), Maeda (2.5 WAR), Verdugo (2.2 WAR) .... and the odds of the aging Turner (3.4 WAR and age 35) and Kershaw (2.5 WAR and age 32) declining are good .... then consider Betts is taking ABs away from some combo of Pederson (3.0 WAR), Taylor (1.7 WAR), Hernandez (1.2 WAR), Pollack (0.9 WAR) which should lower all their WAR contributions.

Lux debuted with a .705 OPS below average wRC+ 87 ... elite prospect but no lock a major impact as a rookie.

Then consider Betts a wRC+ at Fenway of 146 vs. a wRC+ AWAY at 123 .... will going to LA take away some of his HOME advantage and will seeing different NL pitchers result in some months to adapt? Maybe his 6 WAR drops to 5 ?

I think there is a lot of room in all that to see them win less than their 106 in 2019 ... s0 103 seems reasonable from a forecasting perspective. Not really an issue since the next best in the forecast were SD and AZ at 79 wins ... 24 win difference leaves a lot of room for error and still get the same result.

 

I have LAD at 96 W's... SDP and DBacks somewhere between 83-88 W's...

If the SP come through. I see that as the key. If they are competitive it will be by strong pitching with average offense and defense.

Can’t quite figure this move out but the Padres claimed off waivers Breyvic Valera, 28 year old / switch hitting / utility INF - OF, with a number of “look sees” by a lot of teams over the past .. out of minor league options. Espinosa to the 60 day IL.

I just don’t see much value in him over the ML/AAA options they already have but they were willing to pay the waiver price. He clearly is the first DFA when they need to add a non-roster player ... and I guess should be an easy one to clear waivers if they care.

Is there some advantage to the Padres for putting Espinosa on the 60 day now (just as ST opens) and they would have claimed anyone to setup the move ... 40 has to be full to do so?

=====

Side on Espinosa ... being on the 60 day IL will accrue him ML service time (and ML pay) but if he remains on the 60 day IL the full season (considering his rehab) ... Padres do preserve a minor league option year which may be more valuable long term as he needs more minor league time.

Quote from fenn68 on February 12, 2020, 8:34 pm

Can’t quite figure this move out but the Padres claimed off waivers Breyvic Valera, 28 year old / switch hitting / utility INF - OF, with a number of “look sees” by a lot of teams over the past .. out of minor league options. Espinosa to the 60 day IL.

I just don’t see much value in him over the ML/AAA options they already have but they were willing to pay the waiver price. He clearly is the first DFA when they need to add a non-roster player ... and I guess should be an easy one to clear waivers if they care.

Is there some advantage to the Padres for putting Espinosa on the 60 day now (just as ST opens) and they would have claimed anyone to setup the move ... 40 has to be full to do so?

=====

Side on Espinosa ... being on the 60 day IL will accrue him ML service time (and ML pay) but if he remains on the 60 day IL the full season (considering his rehab) ... Padres do preserve a minor league option year which may be more valuable long term as he needs more minor league time.

I like the pickup.  Especially before ST even starts.  SH 2B but true utility guy with >800 IP in field at:  SS, 3B, LF, RF in addition to 2B.  Career AAA >1500 AB...   .302 / .374 / .422  in line with career Minors Avg (Slug about 10% higher).   No power, a little speed (but terrible efficiency in SB).  Main thing is:  He's a versatile guy who gets on base.

Legit competition with his versatility for the last INF bench spot with France & Cronenworth.  Trading Margot made a glaring 2nd hole IMO vs LHP, because Hosmer has been such a liability the last 2 yrs vs LHP.   Moving Myers to 1B vs LHP is irrelevant; the issue is:  who takes his place in the lineup!   Now there are 2 "holes" to fill vs LHP with very few options.  France is probably the best one, but by trade is really "only" a 3B/1B.  Cronenworth is LH.  Velara could potentially play 2B vs LHP & allow "given" Profar to slide over to 1B, but is also the only guy of the 3 who could get spot time in the OF.  I'd put him > Gordon Beckham.

He joins Guerra as an out of options even "longer" shot, but think he'll be near the top in AB in ST so Pads can see what they have.  These guys either help 26-man O.D. or create roster spots for other depth claims end of ST if they don't make the team & have to go through waivers.

Espinoza to IL-60 before O.D. was inevitable, so timing didn't matter much.  Better to have 100% of ST to evaluate a potential "last guy on the roster".

speaking of 26 man roster--- what to do with Guerra?

 

Thinking out loud--- Detroit Tigers-- Trade Guerra (no- options BUT could be elite BP, dont see how he makes Pads though) + Naylor for #8 Detroit Prospect (about where Naylor would slot in our rankings (deeper farm too) DAZ CAMERON-- like his dad-- he gets on base-- only hit .214 in AAA but had a ,330 OBP.. plays GG CF like his Dad.. and has power yet to be tapped-- in any Case adds a legit CF'er who doesnt need to be rushed, but is almost ready... Has tremendous speed but neds work on the bases to maximixe (a Tingler specialty)... Detroit gets a potential elite lefty bat (1B/DH/RF) made for the AL... and a potential elite BP arm.. not a bad swap for need/depth at CF

Probably packaging Guerra with Naylor would appeal to some team ... no idea on the return since doubt Naylor has that much trade value and Guerra is just an upside gamble who other teams know is out of options.

I would probably push for a Comp Pick and/or international bonus monies. Maybe they selected someone in the 2019 draft that might work for the Padres and far enough away that the Tigers could be flexible.

As for Daz Cameron ... how is he different than Gettys .... both in AAA and can’t hit. Note that I have a bias against potential 5 tool talent IF they can only hit ... almost never do.

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 13, 2020, 8:51 am
Quote from fenn68 on February 12, 2020, 8:34 pm

Can’t quite figure this move out but the Padres claimed off waivers Breyvic Valera, 28 year old / switch hitting / utility INF - OF, with a number of “look sees” by a lot of teams over the past .. out of minor league options. Espinosa to the 60 day IL.

I just don’t see much value in him over the ML/AAA options they already have but they were willing to pay the waiver price. He clearly is the first DFA when they need to add a non-roster player ... and I guess should be an easy one to clear waivers if they care.

Is there some advantage to the Padres for putting Espinosa on the 60 day now (just as ST opens) and they would have claimed anyone to setup the move ... 40 has to be full to do so?

=====

Side on Espinosa ... being on the 60 day IL will accrue him ML service time (and ML pay) but if he remains on the 60 day IL the full season (considering his rehab) ... Padres do preserve a minor league option year which may be more valuable long term as he needs more minor league time.

I like the pickup.  Especially before ST even starts.  SH 2B but true utility guy with >800 IP in field at:  SS, 3B, LF, RF in addition to 2B.  Career AAA >1500 AB...   .302 / .374 / .422  in line with career Minors Avg (Slug about 10% higher).   No power, a little speed (but terrible efficiency in SB).  Main thing is:  He's a versatile guy who gets on base.

Legit competition with his versatility for the last INF bench spot with France & Cronenworth.  Trading Margot made a glaring 2nd hole IMO vs LHP, because Hosmer has been such a liability the last 2 yrs vs LHP.   Moving Myers to 1B vs LHP is irrelevant; the issue is:  who takes his place in the lineup!   Now there are 2 "holes" to fill vs LHP with very few options.  France is probably the best one, but by trade is really "only" a 3B/1B.  Cronenworth is LH.  Velara could potentially play 2B vs LHP & allow "given" Profar to slide over to 1B, but is also the only guy of the 3 who could get spot time in the OF.  I'd put him > Gordon Beckham.

He joins Guerra as an out of options even "longer" shot, but think he'll be near the top in AB in ST so Pads can see what they have.  These guys either help 26-man O.D. or create roster spots for other depth claims end of ST if they don't make the team & have to go through waivers.

Espinoza to IL-60 before O.D. was inevitable, so timing didn't matter much.  Better to have 100% of ST to evaluate a potential "last guy on the roster".

Not sure your view of Valeria matches mine. In the past 3 years he has been put on waivers by 5 teams and is now 28. He seems like a AAA player good enough for fill on a call-up basis but not good enough to warrant a 26 man roster slot for the season ... hence the on-going DFA scenario.

If he beats out Cronenworth or France ... should say more about them being over rated than Valera’s talent.

Quote from fenn68 on February 13, 2020, 10:47 am
Quote from Brian Connelly on February 13, 2020, 8:51 am
Quote from fenn68 on February 12, 2020, 8:34 pm

Can’t quite figure this move out but the Padres claimed off waivers Breyvic Valera, 28 year old / switch hitting / utility INF - OF, with a number of “look sees” by a lot of teams over the past .. out of minor league options. Espinosa to the 60 day IL.

I just don’t see much value in him over the ML/AAA options they already have but they were willing to pay the waiver price. He clearly is the first DFA when they need to add a non-roster player ... and I guess should be an easy one to clear waivers if they care.

Is there some advantage to the Padres for putting Espinosa on the 60 day now (just as ST opens) and they would have claimed anyone to setup the move ... 40 has to be full to do so?

=====

Side on Espinosa ... being on the 60 day IL will accrue him ML service time (and ML pay) but if he remains on the 60 day IL the full season (considering his rehab) ... Padres do preserve a minor league option year which may be more valuable long term as he needs more minor league time.

I like the pickup.  Especially before ST even starts.  SH 2B but true utility guy with >800 IP in field at:  SS, 3B, LF, RF in addition to 2B.  Career AAA >1500 AB...   .302 / .374 / .422  in line with career Minors Avg (Slug about 10% higher).   No power, a little speed (but terrible efficiency in SB).  Main thing is:  He's a versatile guy who gets on base.

Legit competition with his versatility for the last INF bench spot with France & Cronenworth.  Trading Margot made a glaring 2nd hole IMO vs LHP, because Hosmer has been such a liability the last 2 yrs vs LHP.   Moving Myers to 1B vs LHP is irrelevant; the issue is:  who takes his place in the lineup!   Now there are 2 "holes" to fill vs LHP with very few options.  France is probably the best one, but by trade is really "only" a 3B/1B.  Cronenworth is LH.  Velara could potentially play 2B vs LHP & allow "given" Profar to slide over to 1B, but is also the only guy of the 3 who could get spot time in the OF.  I'd put him > Gordon Beckham.

He joins Guerra as an out of options even "longer" shot, but think he'll be near the top in AB in ST so Pads can see what they have.  These guys either help 26-man O.D. or create roster spots for other depth claims end of ST if they don't make the team & have to go through waivers.

Espinoza to IL-60 before O.D. was inevitable, so timing didn't matter much.  Better to have 100% of ST to evaluate a potential "last guy on the roster".

Not sure your view of Valeria matches mine. In the past 3 years he has been put on waivers by 5 teams and is now 28. He seems like a AAA player good enough for fill on a call-up basis but not good enough to warrant a 26 man roster slot for the season ... hence the on-going DFA scenario.

If he beats out Cronenworth or France ... should say more about them being over rated than Valera’s talent.

Well, last guy on the roster comes down to team needs/holes & "fit".  For example, if Hosmer not a glaring weakness vs LHP & was in line to make 158 starts, hard to justify having a 3B/1B only guy like France on O.D. roster.  It's his ability to plug that specific hole that gives France the leg up.   In other words, put these 3 guys on 30 different teams and different guys would make each team.  Cronenworth wouldn't be "30 for 30" b/c he's a "better prospect".... Tatis would!