Forum

You need to log in to create posts and topics.

Off Season Thread

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 11, 2020, 6:51 am

I realize this means little but I was looking over the Fantasy baseball player rankings on Yahoo and the Padres have "Seven" guys ranked in the top 100.

Not sure that has "ever" happened before?

Tatis-Pham-Machado-Yates-Paddack-Pomeranz-Pagan

 

1st 4 obvious MLB top 100 or maybe even 50.  But I'm surprised the last 3 names are top 100 PLAYERS in MLB?  Esp Pagan.  He debuted as a 26 year old, and was optioned up/down every year since, burning all his options, as many "OK" RP do.  His #'s are undeniably good, as is his real world success as a closer last year, but find it hard to believe there aren't 100 names in baseball better than him with a limited track record of success, with most teams having 2-5 obvious "star" types.

Paddack & Pom's breakthroughs last year clearly put them here, but I need them both to "show me" the success is sustainable this year before I personally would put them in this territory.  Paddack needs just a below average 3rd pitch & the patience (no pitch count may solve this) to not get beat when he's up 0-2, 1-2 on the hitter, Pom to continue at 80-90% of what he did last year as RP.

Still, this is incredibly encouraging:  Gore could get there, Munoz maybe...

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 11, 2020, 9:34 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on February 11, 2020, 6:51 am

I realize this means little but I was looking over the Fantasy baseball player rankings on Yahoo and the Padres have "Seven" guys ranked in the top 100.

Not sure that has "ever" happened before?

Tatis-Pham-Machado-Yates-Paddack-Pomeranz-Pagan

 

1st 4 obvious MLB top 100 or maybe even 50.  But I'm surprised the last 3 names are top 100 PLAYERS in MLB?  Esp Pagan.  He debuted as a 26 year old, and was optioned up/down every year since, burning all his options, as many "OK" RP do.  His #'s are undeniably good, as is his real world success as a closer last year, but find it hard to believe there aren't 100 names in baseball better than him with a limited track record of success, with most teams having 2-5 obvious "star" types.

Paddack & Pom's breakthroughs last year clearly put them here, but I need them both to "show me" the success is sustainable this year before I personally would put them in this territory.  Paddack needs just a below average 3rd pitch & the patience (no pitch count may solve this) to not get beat when he's up 0-2, 1-2 on the hitter, Pom to continue at 80-90% of what he did last year as RP.

Still, this is incredibly encouraging:  Gore could get there, Munoz maybe...

Not top 100 players in MLB.

Fantasy only....and based on potential for Holds-ERA-K/9  for Pom and Pagan.

 

 

http://www.stompersbaseball.com/news/2020/2/10/dondrei-hubbard-signs-with-san-diego-padres

 

Welcome Dondrei Hubbard?

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gF-DFQgjxRA

The historically fun but irrelevant PECOTA ranking are out for wins / losses in 2020.

  1. Padres are ranked in the NL West tied for 2nd with AZ ... but only with 79 wins ... LAD at 103 wins.
  2. Mets win NL East but with mid 80s wins and CINN wins NL Central none of the non-Division winners had that great a win total.

IF you see any credibility into those win numbers ... you should see a path to the wild card with some luck and some career years .. could get the Padres to mid-80s wins and that MIGHT work.

IT COULD HAPPEN!

 

Anyone have their predictions in the past and how accurate they have been?

Anyone can guess.....I’d like to see if they are any good at it.

 

Depends on how you evaluate "good".

Usually they really miss at least one team that wins way more than they predicted and at least one teams way under performs. However, if within +/- 5 wins is considered "good" for most of the teams ... they are "good".

If the standard of good is all the teams +/- 2 games ... maybe not so good.

Basically, would not bet based on PECOTA.

Maybe it is their natural bias but other than the LAD ... none of the other teams are projected to have blow out winning season. IF that plays out ... the expected +/- win variations may open a path for SD for a wild card.

Looked as though they projected the NL East to cannibalize each other ... lowering every teams' win totals making the 2nd place team very vulnerable to not getting a wild card. CINN had a good win projection but #2 (Cubs) and #3 (STL) did not. A lot of assumptions and moving parts but if the Padres produce an extra 5 wins ... they will be in the race and considering the Vegas early odds had them at 83 ... there is hope.

IF PECOTA was right the NL playoffs would be:

NATIONAL LEAGUE

1) Dodgers: 103-59 (NL West champion)

2) Mets: 88-74 (NL East champion)

3) Reds: 86-76 (NL Central champion)

4) Nationals: 87-75 (top NL Wild Card)

5) Cubs: 85-77 (second NL Wild Card)

 

LOL

I have never seen an algorithm hit a curve ball or throw a 98 mph heater and I guess that throws the other garbage number game ( WAR) out the window.....the Dodgers got Betts with his 6+ WAR and they went down in win total

Nothing more than click bait....you guys crack me up......it's baseball played on a field not paper

Quote from 3fingersplit on February 12, 2020, 9:44 am

LOL

I have never seen an algorithm hit a curve ball or throw a 98 mph heater and I guess that throws the other garbage number game ( WAR) out the window.....the Dodgers got Betts with his 6+ WAR and they went down in win total

Nothing more than click bait....you guys crack me up......it's baseball played on a field not paper

🙂 that is the fun ... virtually every forecast / projection will turn out wrong ... often not even close.

Actually MadFriars website is based on projecting line-ups, prospects, discussing the future ... and we (collectively) are normally wrong.

Way too many variables that move on their own tracks and really cannot be predicted.