Quote from fenn68 on January 25, 2020, 6:14 am

Bartolo Colon is available for that #5 SP slot .... he would bring major entertainment value 🙂 until Gore et al arrive.

Quote from fenn68 on January 25, 2020, 6:30 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 25, 2020, 4:50 am

Quote from 3fingersplit on January 24, 2020, 8:32 pm

Bottom line this

Meyers - Gone

Luchessi - Gone

Quantril - Gone

Baez - Gone

and we get what ?

1 year rental at 27 million for Betts....He will not sign with San Diego and becomes a FA

1 year contract for Richards.....if he throws well...he is traded or Gone as a FA

Unless Naylor is in the deal he becomes a everyday outfielder ?

So I ask....what does SD get out of it besides giving up 3 young arms and a player Andy Green ruined ?

A comp pick for Meyers, Luchessi, Quantril,Baez, Betts, Richards and hopefully Naylor

Why does Naylor become an everyday outfielder?

If you mean in 2021 we could sign any free agent OF we want just with the money we save from Myers/Richards.

Plus by then one of Cordero/Oliveras/Trammell will be ready plus there is always the trade route.

I’m not in the “trade Myers at all costs” camp because I think he will regain some value...but if it means a year of Betts(which could lead to resigning him even if a slight chance) plus saving $20 mil for the next two seasons and doesn’t cost us any of our top 5......I’m in.

 

 

Actually in 2021 the Padres will drop salaries for Betts ($27MM), Richards ($8.5MM), Profar ($5.7), Yates ($7.1MM), Olivera ($8.5MM), and Kinsler ($3.7MM) .... less the Myers’ dead money. Net maybe about $50MM down?

Might be able to cull out enough money IF the Padres want to sign a new RF (actually enough to re-sign Betts if he wanted).

Of course still around will be Cordero, Trammell, Grisham, Ona, Margot, Olivares, and Naylor to cover CF/RF ... don’t see the loss of “1 WAR” Myers that debilitating.

Quote from Commie on January 25, 2020, 7:43 am

Where is Pham in all this?

Quote from fenn68 on January 25, 2020, 8:07 am

Quote from Commie on January 25, 2020, 7:43 am

Where is Pham in all this?

LF in 2020-21 (2 year control) so 2021 his last arbitration year.

2022? He has two years to make a case for the Padres trying to extend him but the Padres have two years to see if their prospect OF pool develops to a level that lets Pham move on.

At some point the Padres have to consider using their payroll space to cover arbitration for Paddack, Lamet, Tatis, Mejia ... that will get really going in 2022 and really blossom in 2023-24. If they believe in the All-Star quality of that group ... that will send each into the $10-20+MM for those years. Then Gore, Patino, Grisham, Trammell are likely entering the arbitration years in 2024.

If the Padres want to keep their own homegrown stars they will have to pay them which suggests they move on from the expensive veteran FAs/trade targets.

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 25, 2020, 8:40 am

3Finger, Jason, other doubters... keep in mind it's really 2 trades, but they are intertwined.

I don't think anyone here wants to deal prospects for "just" 1 year of Betts.  The crux of the entire deal is the inclusion of Myers and a lot of his salary over the next 3 years.  The deal solves a huge problem for both teams, so in that sense it's a perfect fit.

I proposed all offseason we could save 15 MM /yr x 3 by trading a SP with Myers.  When the FA OF market for 2nd tier guys started rolling in soft, I adjusted that $ savings down.   So a trade of Myers + Quantrill saves ??? $$$,  and gets literally NOTHING back in return.... that's just the baseline to initiate the trade at all.

If we give Boston our Comp A pick this season, that would essentially = the comp pick they lose, we gain (a year later) for Betts.  MIGHT be worth a little $$ since receiving it a year early.

That leaves Betts alone MINUS the fact his entire team has a luxury tax issue.  The $ savings Boston receives by trading him is far beyond the actual 7 MM salary difference.  And the players/prospects they receive might help them unlock a similarly structured trade elsewhere of David Price... this hard to quantify but real "value" of the trade to Boston pushes Betts value down.

Issue is Myers $.  They COULD take 100% of this year's salary, but doesn't fully solve their luxury tax problem.  Hard to see how SD carries ANY of Myers' 2020 $ though.  Bigger issue is probably 21-22 $.  At that point Boston is adding salary they don't want to.  Still, even 100% of Myers' salary only counts as 13.4 MM vs payroll tax threshold... so seems solvable with them taking half for example:  10 MM real $/yr only "=" 6.7 MM towards payroll.

Quote from 3fingersplit on January 25, 2020, 2:20 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 25, 2020, 8:40 am

3Finger, Jason, other doubters... keep in mind it's really 2 trades, but they are intertwined.

I don't think anyone here wants to deal prospects for "just" 1 year of Betts.  The crux of the entire deal is the inclusion of Myers and a lot of his salary over the next 3 years.  The deal solves a huge problem for both teams, so in that sense it's a perfect fit.

I proposed all offseason we could save 15 MM /yr x 3 by trading a SP with Myers.  When the FA OF market for 2nd tier guys started rolling in soft, I adjusted that $ savings down.   So a trade of Myers + Quantrill saves ??? $$$,  and gets literally NOTHING back in return.... that's just the baseline to initiate the trade at all.

If we give Boston our Comp A pick this season, that would essentially = the comp pick they lose, we gain (a year later) for Betts.  MIGHT be worth a little $$ since receiving it a year early.

That leaves Betts alone MINUS the fact his entire team has a luxury tax issue.  The $ savings Boston receives by trading him is far beyond the actual 7 MM salary difference.  And the players/prospects they receive might help them unlock a similarly structured trade elsewhere of David Price... this hard to quantify but real "value" of the trade to Boston pushes Betts value down.

Issue is Myers $.  They COULD take 100% of this year's salary, but doesn't fully solve their luxury tax problem.  Hard to see how SD carries ANY of Myers' 2020 $ though.  Bigger issue is probably 21-22 $.  At that point Boston is adding salary they don't want to.  Still, even 100% of Myers' salary only counts as 13.4 MM vs payroll tax threshold... so seems solvable with them taking half for example:  10 MM real $/yr only "=" 6.7 MM towards payroll.

Richards is a 1 year rental at his current contract....if he pitches great he will want BIG money as a FA or he gets traded at the deadline after the Padres are out of it...either way he is gone

Betts wants to play in LA for the Dodgers so he is a 1 year rental and we get rid of Meyers and his contract.....if he has a bounce back year like I suspect he will now that Andy Green is gone and not playing head games with him then his contract actually looks decent and becomes trade able down the road

So one of this years projected starters will be gone, Another three of your current or future starters are gone ( Luchessi, Quantril and Baez ) Meyers will be gone so now you have a opening in the outfield and people think that Naylor ( Paul McNulty) or Franchy ( I have so many holes in my swing aka China Doll ) Cordero are going to be the answer so we can help Boston out of their threshold tax problem and take Betts for his 27 million and 1 year of "I'm just waiting to become a free agent" attitude

Exactly how does San Diego benefit by giving up three young pitchers that are controllable assets that can....you know PITCH

for somebody that won't sign here and be on a team this year that might play .500 ball

Betts does not move the needle for the Padres to win the West or gain a wild card spot and if you trade away the three pitchers named then your rotation is what....Paddack ( fingers crossed he stays healthy ) Richards ( Same ) Lamet ( Same) and SFG and SFG or Morejon, Patino, Gore ( Not Ready), Perdomo, Strahm....if they were that good then they would already be in the rotation

Why blow a hole in your starting rotation for a 1 year rental and pay all of Betts contract and if you have to pay some of Meyers then the benefit is what ?

Just SMH

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 25, 2020, 2:54 pm

If this trade happens as it “should” if it will at all the Padres payroll in 2021 will drop by about $50 mil.

Thats enough to lock up Tatis....add a Starter(if needed considering Gore/Patino) AND add a right fielder.

I like Lucchesi and hope he stays but getting Betts and ridding us of Mayer’s contract is worth quite a bit...including Joey.

If this deal happens and we keep Gore/Patino/Abrams/Trammell/Campusano it’s a no brainer.

If it costs Patino or Campusano......like it might.....I would feel differently.

 

 

Quote from onlypads on January 25, 2020, 3:21 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 25, 2020, 2:54 pm

If this trade happens as it “should” if it will at all the Padres payroll in 2021 will drop by about $50 mil.

Thats enough to lock up Tatis....add a Starter(if needed considering Gore/Patino) AND add a right fielder.

I like Lucchesi and hope he stays but getting Betts and ridding us of Mayer’s contract is worth quite a bit...including Joey.

If this deal happens and we keep Gore/Patino/Abrams/Trammell/Campusano it’s a no brainer.

If it costs Patino or Campusano......like it might.....I would feel differently.

 

 

😂 I really hope Heyman is full of shit and we aren't actually considering Patino as a piece. Really, please.

Even Campusano is ludacris to me. As already mentioned casj is coming off the books in 2021. Giving up significant, internal talent (impliedly also control) just doesnt make sense for 10/15mm payroll relief -- remember FA signings are inflated so your dollar does not stretch very far.

Are proponents of this trade willing to give up L,Q,B,M for any player who signed for 10-15mm this offseason?

Further, we are assuming ownership will spend back anything saved..

Quote from fenn68 on January 25, 2020, 3:32 pm

I may be an interesting waiting game by Preller. First, maybe need to be sure on the penalty to Boston for their version of the cheating scandal ... if loss of high draft picks, may have an influence. Second, MLBPipeline just issued its Top 100 ... Boston has only 1 on the list at #77 ... Casas, a 1B who just finished Low A.

So, if Boston loses draft picks ... has zip coming in the farm system ... and has a GM who is used to prospect development from within ... might get him to bite on a Padre friendly package. Add that the fans in Boston are known to be cranky at times. They will be cranky if Betts is traded but moreso if they don't get some immediate ML level return to help the chase the NYY. Bloom may be more in a box than we think and need to act.

I would also guess that the rest of the team .. Martinez, Bogarts, et. al ... will not be motivated if the return is prospects in the low minors.

Preller just waits it out ... if he gets Betts it is at his terms ... which probably requires Boston take a lot of Myers' salary and "non-elite" players / prospects.