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#1151 · January 25, 2020, 3:41 pm
Quote from onlypads on January 25, 2020, 3:21 pmQuote from MrPadre19 on January 25, 2020, 2:54 pmIf this trade happens as it “should” if it will at all the Padres payroll in 2021 will drop by about $50 mil.
Thats enough to lock up Tatis....add a Starter(if needed considering Gore/Patino) AND add a right fielder.
I like Lucchesi and hope he stays but getting Betts and ridding us of Mayer’s contract is worth quite a bit...including Joey.
If this deal happens and we keep Gore/Patino/Abrams/Trammell/Campusano it’s a no brainer.
If it costs Patino or Campusano......like it might.....I would feel differently.
😂 I really hope Heyman is full of shit and we aren't actually considering Patino as a piece. Really, please.
Even Campusano is ludacris to me. As already mentioned casj is coming off the books in 2021. Giving up significant, internal talent (impliedly also control) just doesnt make sense for 10/15mm payroll relief -- remember FA signings are inflated so your dollar does not stretch very far.
Are proponents of this trade willing to give up L,Q,B,M for any player who signed for 10-15mm this offseason?
Further, we are assuming ownership will spend back anything saved..
Heyman seems to be in his pure speculation mode whether it is on Betts or Marte. He, along with most of the writers, have a tendency to overvalue the narrow view of an established player vs. prospects and ignore things such as 1 year control and $27MM contract as reducing the market for that talent ... and in turn the expected return. Basically the take the seller's view.
The buyer can say ... yes, great talent but he will not get me to the playoffs (or I am already getting to the playoffs) and paying $27MM and "elite" prospects for one year will not change the core roster or materially alter my out come ... not worth that price.
Hence, Betts is still a Red Sox player ... and Marte is a Pirate. Seller can try to sell but the buyer don't have to buy at top dollar.
#1152 · January 25, 2020, 4:45 pm
So many casual fans without a clue.
Wondering why we aren’t just getting Marte instead for 2 years.
Obviously no consideration for the Myers/Money part of any deal.
I can’t see any way we add Marte and his contract....they aren’t taking Myers and we aren’t raising payroll another $12 mil.
#1153 · January 25, 2020, 6:16 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on January 25, 2020, 4:45 pmSo many casual fans without a clue.
Wondering why we aren’t just getting Marte instead for 2 years.
Obviously no consideration for the Myers/Money part of any deal.
I can’t see any way we add Marte and his contract....they aren’t taking Myers and we aren’t raising payroll another $12 mil.
Plus apparently the prospect level Pitt is asking is out of line with market. More buyers are seeing his diminishing defense ... and really there are not that many real buyers for CF with marginal defense at $12MM.
#1154 · January 25, 2020, 7:56 pm
I keep thinking about the Patino speculation and that Preller is allegedly willing to at least consider Patino in the trade.
Either he is in fact contemplating Patino, or he may have generated the rumor to obstruct any LAD deal or to send out a warning shot to other GMs that he is willing to wade into deep water for Betts (i.e. bark/bluff).
Or Heyman just gets away with pure fabrication.
#1155 · January 25, 2020, 9:00 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on January 25, 2020, 4:45 pmSo many casual fans without a clue.
Wondering why we aren’t just getting Marte instead for 2 years.
Obviously no consideration for the Myers/Money part of any deal.
I can’t see any way we add Marte and his contract....they aren’t taking Myers and we aren’t raising payroll another $12 mil.
One year of BETTS is like 6 WAR (worst case) .. 10WAR+ (best)
2 yr of MARTE (combined 20+21) is like 6 WAR (worst/best)...
So let me take the best IMPACT player in Betts... By the way MARGOT is capable of a 3 WAR season himself.. so the "upgrade" D and O Marte vs Margot is not earthshatering... Betts on the other hand is like LF/CF and RF (combined into one super player)..
#1156 · January 25, 2020, 9:22 pm
Boston is in a bad spot......they want to get under the threshold tax limit, they owe Betts 27 million this year and they show no inclination to resign him at the money he will want / command in free agency, they are stuck with Price and his over priced contract and he is damaged goods and doubtful he would go a whole season without a stay on the disabled list so I don't really see the need to overpay for anybody Boston wants to move....Betts will be gone after 2020 and Boston gets next to nothing...comp pick ?
Price is just a bad contract with a bad arm....he's done
Meyers for Betts straight up and maybe a low A player. San Diego has Betts for a year at 27 million, gets rid of Meyers and his 3 years left on his contract...Boston at least has a guy for 3 years who will probably play better just with a change of address, a low A player that is stuck behind any number of people in San Diego....throw in a couple of Bats and a dozen balls and make the deal....any pitchers asked for or included......walk away. Sometimes the best deal is the one you are willing to walk away from.
It's called Hardball and Boston is not in any position to dictate terms and conditions in my opinion
#1157 · January 26, 2020, 5:12 am
Except for one minor detail.
If that’s all it took there would be 16 other teams lined up to pitch a better deal.
Even for just one season this is the 2nd best player in baseball....how much is 6-8 WAR worth?
Certainly more than just Wil Myers and a Low A ballplayer.
The Dodgers and Yankees would give WAY more than that if that was all it took.
Along with every other team with “any” playoff hopes.
#1158 · January 26, 2020, 5:57 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on January 26, 2020, 5:12 amExcept for one minor detail.
If that’s all it took there would be 16 other teams lined up to pitch a better deal.
Even for just one season this is the 2nd best player in baseball....how much is 6-8 WAR worth?
Certainly more than just Wil Myers and a Low A ballplayer.
The Dodgers and Yankees would give WAY more than that if that was all it took.
Along with every other team with “any” playoff hopes.
I guess you don't get it....the Red Sox have zero leverage and if a team thinks they"might" make the playoffs then they cave in but anybody with a long view doesn't give up 3 pitchers plus for a 1 year rental....let Boston choke on the luxury tax and lose the "second" best player in baseball after the season. Besides.....Betts is closer to the floor than the ceiling....he will want a 10 year deal but his game will not last another 4 and if he really was so great then why doesn't Boston move Heaven and Earth to sign him and just take the hit ?
He is not going to sign with San Diego so why ?
The benefit to San Diego is what......Meyers contract that they want the Padres to help pay and the loss of young controllable arms?
Just have to agree to disagree
BTW- WAR is a joke....past performance metric means nothing to me especially coming from another league.....we have our own examples that we can look at....one from KC and one from Baltimore so WAR is nothing more than a arbitration term to drive player value
Sadly it turns out that just plain old common sense isn't common enough
#1159 · January 26, 2020, 6:14 am
Well Betts is still with Boston .... and we are probably overestimating the need to them to trade him. Would very much like to ... but not an absolute need. So they demand high ... for now.
Although the owner in a Fowler type statement declared that they want to get under the tax threshold .. which lit this firestorm of trade speculation ... he has since tried to backoff that statement downplaying the need to do so. Actually the financial penalty for being over the tax threshold in 2020 is not that expensive for a wealthy team such as Boston (more motivation if it is problem in 2021 but Betts and Bradley will be gone so a self correcting situation).
Boston fans will be hostile if the Red Sox deal Betts for nothing ... and pretty sure they have the optimistic view that they can contend for at least a wild card slot by keeping Betts. Plus if they get the negative press from a cheating penalty ... they will need some positive press. That is a bit of pressure to pay the penalty and run with Betts.
====
As for buyers .. there has to be teams willing and able to construct a deal ... and since Betts is still in Boston ... apparently the other teams are not that motivated to make the deal.
Taking the $27MM is just not that appealing to any team while getting only one year of Betts. Then on top of that give quality prospects. Don't care how great Betts is .... a team really, really needs to believe he is the cornerstone getting to the world series AND have the money to spend AND have the quality prospects that they are willing to include in a deal. Clearly no team clears those three hurdles ... not even the LAD with the money, the prospects, and a clear World Series contender.
Now it is worse for the Padres ... having to include Myers from a financial need just serves to increase the quality of prospects to Boston to cover the non-valued cost of Myers going to Boston.
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Padres may like to get Betts (at their price) but probably don't chase down Betts (at Boston's price) ... same strategy as in LAD or any other team interested (if any).
Guessing keeping Betts has more value (winning in 2020, fans, etc.) than the offers while adding Betts to any team is not worth the demands from Boston. Betts likely is not traded.
#1160 · January 26, 2020, 7:04 am
Quote from 3fingersplit on January 26, 2020, 5:57 amQuote from MrPadre19 on January 26, 2020, 5:12 amExcept for one minor detail.
If that’s all it took there would be 16 other teams lined up to pitch a better deal.
Even for just one season this is the 2nd best player in baseball....how much is 6-8 WAR worth?
Certainly more than just Wil Myers and a Low A ballplayer.
The Dodgers and Yankees would give WAY more than that if that was all it took.
Along with every other team with “any” playoff hopes.
I guess you don't get it....the Red Sox have zero leverage and if a team thinks they"might" make the playoffs then they cave in but anybody with a long view doesn't give up 3 pitchers plus for a 1 year rental....let Boston choke on the luxury tax and lose the "second" best player in baseball after the season. Besides.....Betts is closer to the floor than the ceiling....he will want a 10 year deal but his game will not last another 4 and if he really was so great then why doesn't Boston move Heaven and Earth to sign him and just take the hit ?
He is not going to sign with San Diego so why ?
The benefit to San Diego is what......Meyers contract that they want the Padres to help pay and the loss of young controllable arms?
Just have to agree to disagree
BTW- WAR is a joke....past performance metric means nothing to me especially coming from another league.....we have our own examples that we can look at....one from KC and one from Baltimore so WAR is nothing more than a arbitration term to drive player value
Sadly it turns out that just plain old common sense isn't common enough
Except your basing all your angst on rumors and guesses.
Until it happens and we see what was “actually” given up why all the negativity?
Most likely it never happens.
Also likely if it does it won’t be for 4 good prospects plus money.
No matter how you feel about Preller he isn’t dumb or desperate enough to give up Patino/Lucchesi/Baez/+ for one year of anyone.
Maybe it happens and it ends up being something we can live with?
Or more likely it’s all talk.