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#1131 · January 24, 2020, 1:32 pm
Quote from Mike Turner on January 24, 2020, 9:30 amGiving up Lucchesi just doesn't seem like the move to make, IMO. Factor in Betts is making 27 this year, 3.5 fWAR is just going to be playing to his contract value. If he put's up a 6.5 fWAR next year that will put him around 2.5 fWAR of surplus value to his contract. Lucchesi's steamer projection is around 2 fWAR, so all said and done we're looking around .5 fWAR surplus for one year, while giving additional prospects, while Lucchesi will still have team friendly control for multiple years, while also paying down Myers contract in 21' and 22'? I think the idea would be to move on from Myers, pay down some portion of his salary, while giving BOS some prospect capital to roll the dice on and we get the comp pick when Betts walks. BOS has a weak system and may still end out losing some draft picks. That seems to make sense for us but doesn't make much sense for BOS since their goal is to get under the luxury tax which would just complicate their situation in 21' and 22'. Maybe I'm reading the whole thing wrong but it just seems very complicated to make it work. Losing Lucchesi would definitely hurt our chances on competing as I don't think having Gore out of ST is a wise choice on our part. He's only started a handful of games in AA and wasn't lights out. Paddack ended his 18' killing high A and double A, then had a solid spring which justified his call-up. We still have to match up well against the likes of an LAD starting staff. I have faith in Paddack, Lamet and Davies... but losing Lucchesi and then hoping for Richards to have a strong return just seems like a big gamble. If Richards return isn't as expected then we're relying on unproven pitchers to limp us through the season in Bolanos, Morejon, maybe a June call-up for Gore on an innings limit? I'd rather have Paddack / Richards/ Lamet / Davies / Lucchesi and supplement one prospect in as needed if Richards isn't quite there, or the rest as needed, etc.
To be fair it's possible that whoever steps in to pitch Lucchesi's innings may also produce the same 2 fWAR or maybe even more.
We don't just "lose" what he would give us.
If Quantrill isn't involved he would step in to Joeys spot.
Either way I don't think AJ will give up a chance to get Betts AND unload Myers over who our #5 starter will be.
Esp. if he plans on having Gore up in June anyway.
As far as Bos. luxury tax situation exchanging Betts for Myers saves them about $13 mil...if the Padres agree to pay something around $10 mil of Myers salary in 2020 it would get them under the threshold.
Then Bos. pays all of Myers in 21 and 22 when they will save money elsewhere(Rusney,JBJ,Others)
#1132 · January 24, 2020, 2:11 pm
To reiterate what some have already said, if the deal really is Betts for Lucchessi/Q/Baez/Myers, I do that in a heartbeat. Like, without even thinking twice. Luchessi I think has reached his ceiling, and that ceiling isn't good enough for a championship rotation. I really like Q, but I'm willing to let that ship sail. Baez I think is going to be a potential high leverage reliever at best, and we all know what Myers is.
Seriously, if that's the deal, I take it.
#1133 · January 24, 2020, 3:02 pm
I saw somewhere that the Sox really want Campusano......which may be part of the hold up.
If I give them Camp I don’t pay any of Myers salary.
#1134 · January 24, 2020, 3:46 pm
Quote from TatisJr on January 24, 2020, 1:24 pmI don’t think it’s a coincidence this sudden flurry of news linking the Padres to Betts and Marte is coming out as Bryant’s grievance case is supposedly wrapping up. AJP will want the Cubs, Sox and Pirates all knowing he’s talking big bats with other clubs. I’d assume his target list in order is:
1. Bryant (expected 2 years of control) can play 3B,1B,LF and RF and I expect the Dodgers to pursue him in trade.
2. Betts is better all around player, but only 1 year of control
3. Marte isn’t in the same class as Betts and Bryant, but he’s solid and is on a reasonable 2 year deal.
I don’t think Wil is on the 2020 roster and I believe 1 of these 3 are added to the lineup. I really hope Campusano isn’t used for 1 year of Betts and the comp pick unless it means Boston is eating all of Wil’s deal.
Maybe... but the issue with any trade other than than Betts is that Myers likely has to be dealt separately.... to who?
The same positional "exchange" with Red Sox solving each others' issues is just so perfect of a fit. Goldschmidt's 1 yr control deal a very good comp, others like Machado to LAD trade deadline, etc. Might just have to suck it up & overpay a little to get desired amount of Myers' deal gone.... but the reward is a year of Betts.
#1135 · January 24, 2020, 4:07 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on January 24, 2020, 3:02 pmI saw somewhere that the Sox really want Campusano......which may be part of the hold up.
If I give them Camp I don’t pay any of Myers salary.
Interesting take by one reporter on the future of catchers who can hit.
MLB will experiment with the automated strike zone this spring and most seem to think that will be in the ML sooner than later. Especially with the move to more widespread betting on games.
His view is that with that change ... the value of defensive catchers who are based in “framing” plummets and the value of catchers who can hit increases. Makes sense ... although there is more to defense than just framing.
That would suggest the future value of a Campusano who has a high hit skill will be higher than we may have thought (and this probably has not escaped the thinking of GMs across the league). As it is catchers that can hit are hard to come by.
Same logic adds value to Mejia and .. at some point ... lowers value on Hedges.
Something worth considering.
#1136 · January 24, 2020, 8:32 pm
Bottom line this
Meyers - Gone
Luchessi - Gone
Quantril - Gone
Baez - Gone
and we get what ?
1 year rental at 27 million for Betts....He will not sign with San Diego and becomes a FA
1 year contract for Richards.....if he throws well...he is traded or Gone as a FA
Unless Naylor is in the deal he becomes a everyday outfielder ?
So I ask....what does SD get out of it besides giving up 3 young arms and a player Andy Green ruined ?
A comp pick for Meyers, Luchessi, Quantril,Baez, Betts, Richards and hopefully Naylor
#1137 · January 24, 2020, 10:06 pm
Thank you! I am 100% behind you on this 3fingersplit.
Besides this being just a 1 year rental, we might be straining our starter depth. I mean, trade the 2 guys who will competing for the #5 spot? Morejon and Baez were were obviously not ready last year and won't be until the end of this year soonest. Same really with Gore and Patino except Gore may be ready by mid year. I mean, they have less than 10 starts in AA between the 2 of them don't they? That makes Bolanos our probable #5. We will have to rush one of our star staring prospects and possibly hurt their development if anyone gets hurt. We have pitching depth, Boston doesn't. Let's not trade places for a 1 year rental.
#1138 · January 24, 2020, 10:54 pm
In terms of value the Padres get 1 year of Betts (2nd best player in AL), a comp pick and financial relief. The financial flexibility in 2021 and 22 is a HUGE benefit in this trade. You can’t just say it’s 1 year of Betts and the pick without acknowledging the financial flexibility it gives AJP for the next offseason. I highly doubt AJP moves Cal and Joey in the same deal. I expect one of them to be the 5. Joey doesn’t seem like a fit in Boston. The park, division and the fact Joey would be the 4th Red Sox LH starter...don’t think that’s a fit.
#1139 · January 25, 2020, 2:50 am
The whole point of including Myers is to save $30-40 million.
#1140 · January 25, 2020, 3:56 am
Betts in Myers out and we don't touch a top 5 prospect...oh hell yes...
I can't believe some are arguing Q + Joey .. Sure they are nice depth.. But we are talking guys who aren't going to be good enough to be in the 2021 rotation and are barely good enough for 5th/6th spots in 2020... Besides Bolanos has as much if not more upside than both.. And Gore and Patino are all but ready... Cantillo/Lawson and Morejon need like 1/2 a season to be ready as well.. And our BP is so deep it can sustain a 4 man rotation for an entire season to be honest... Perdomo can always give us a start or 2 and do no worse than Q...and lets not forget Nix..and a few others who will become household names in about 5 months