Quote from Brian Connelly on January 5, 2020, 10:46 am

Everyone should be THRILLED that Stammen re-signed!  Really thought no chance once they added Pierce Johnson (aside: Johnson's contract is like a mini version of Stammen's:  same exact structure but 65-75% of $$ incl incentives).

People whining about "how we're spending $" reminds me of when we drafted Trea Turner & most were whining that we should have instead drafted a (non-existent) 'power hitter'... WHAT/WHO exactly would you spend "the $" on?!   I really wanted a TOR SP, but where that $ ended up relative to what Pads have to work with I accepted was bonkers unrealistic.

Quiz:  Which would help a team more:  Zach Davies + Pomeranz + Stammen + Pierce Johnson... or (take your pick) just Cole Hamels OR Dallas Keuchel?

Andy Green had NOWHERE to go beyond Yates & Stammen last season; particularly early in year.  Stammen literally got over-used by like 25-30 IP/appearances, and some of the horrible outings could be directly attributed to that.  Bullpen isn't "just" 8 guys or almost 1/3 of 25-man... it ends up being 11-15 guys or about 1/3+ of entire 40-man roster.   Pads are vastly better off adding 2 (3 if Castillo back to 2018 form) RP's to last year's high upside but too inexperienced & predictably erratic staff... better to have the likes of Castillo, Munoz, Wingenter & Guerra to supplant Stammen & P. Johnson eventually than to be RELYING upon them on O.D. for high leverage innings on a team that literally for Preller HAS to be >.500

Stammen is the very rare dude who truly 1,000% means it when he says he doesn't care where/when he pitches; knows & accepts he's moving "back" in the pecking order.  Could his effectiveness fall off a cliff?  Sure.  But seems unlikely since great control & never a velocity/K guy to begin with.  Continuity of he & Yates vet leadership adds a lot.  Not saying you pay for past performance, but IMO the total $ over his old & new deal frankly has already been earned.

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 5, 2020, 10:51 am

Abraham Almonte on Minors deal an interesting pickup.  Could just be that position-roving OF in AAA, but think there's a real chance he makes the roster as the 5th OF if he has a strong ST... the issue is that Cordero & Naylor both need to play daily to develop.  Barring any additional OF moves/trades, Margot/Grisham look like #4 OF, feel like current configuration have to have a 5th OF, but that guy might really be buried on the bench, which would be a lot more "OK" if it's Almonte.

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 5, 2020, 10:57 am

I think there's a significant chance that after the Stammen re-sign, Preller & Padres are "done" & we're looking at our 2020 Padres.

With payroll now > 140 MM & the problems inherent with trading Myers + ? opening more holes, there just isn't a lot of $ to work with for even a lower cost in $$ addition like Merrifield.

Think Pads shift here to wait & watch mode esp for FA OF to sign & see if trade market anywhere potentially shifts in their favor.  Focus in meantime moves to Arb signings with most attention there paid to first extending Yates, and then Tatis!

Quote from onlypads on January 5, 2020, 12:00 pm

Quote from TatisJr on January 5, 2020, 10:26 am

Just out of curiosity which young arm would you guys have wanted to see take over the Stammen role? Outside some ugly outings like the Nats game Stammen was his usual, reliable self. You can bank on him to take the ball, he throws strikes, generates ground balls and was still deadly against LHH last year. The guy threw 82 innings last year, how is his ERA a fluke? Bednar is possibly a guy who could’ve filled the role, but considering he’s only 24 with 11 big league innings under his belt he’s certainly not a given. Perdomo pitched well last year at times, but he’s not a guy I trust. Wing has had injury, walk and reliability issues in his young career. Stammen is a valuable BP and we got him for below market value. I don’t see how you could not like this deal. I have much more concern over the Pierce Johnson signing than I do Stammen.

A quick point of distinction. I did not say his ERA is a fluke. Instead, I said the runs he gave up were meaningful given the context of the game.

As to cheap, replacement arms that could function similar to Stammen's 6th/7th inning role the following could suffice: Cal (opportunity for long relief), Bednar, Baez (still see him as RP and long relief potential), Guerra, Wingenter, or Perdomo.

I do not hate the move. One could marshal an array of facts to support the argument that stabilizing our bullpen will translate to the greatest wins over last year. I generally like the moves, but at some point there are diminishing returns if we keep shoveling payroll into the bullpen -- especially when the marginal gain with respect to replacement is debateable.

 

Quote from onlypads on January 5, 2020, 12:09 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 5, 2020, 10:46 am

Everyone should be THRILLED that Stammen re-signed!  Really thought no chance once they added Pierce Johnson (aside: Johnson's contract is like a mini version of Stammen's:  same exact structure but 65-75% of $$ incl incentives).

People whining about "how we're spending $" reminds me of when we drafted Trea Turner & most were whining that we should have instead drafted a (non-existent) 'power hitter'... WHAT/WHO exactly would you spend "the $" on?!   I really wanted a TOR SP, but where that $ ended up relative to what Pads have to work with I accepted was bonkers unrealistic.

Quiz:  Which would help a team more:  Zach Davies + Pomeranz + Stammen + Pierce Johnson... or (take your pick) just Cole Hamels OR Dallas Keuchel?

Andy Green had NOWHERE to go beyond Yates & Stammen last season; particularly early in year.  Stammen literally got over-used by like 25-30 IP/appearances, and some of the horrible outings could be directly attributed to that.  Bullpen isn't "just" 8 guys or almost 1/3 of 25-man... it ends up being 11-15 guys or about 1/3+ of entire 40-man roster.   Pads are vastly better off adding 2 (3 if Castillo back to 2018 form) RP's to last year's high upside but too inexperienced & predictably erratic staff... better to have the likes of Castillo, Munoz, Wingenter & Guerra to supplant Stammen & P. Johnson eventually than to be RELYING upon them on O.D. for high leverage innings on a team that literally for Preller HAS to be >.500

Stammen is the very rare dude who truly 1,000% means it when he says he doesn't care where/when he pitches; knows & accepts he's moving "back" in the pecking order.  Could his effectiveness fall off a cliff?  Sure.  But seems unlikely since great control & never a velocity/K guy to begin with.  Continuity of he & Yates vet leadership adds a lot.  Not saying you pay for past performance, but IMO the total $ over his old & new deal frankly has already been earned.

To be fair one can like the Pom, Pierce Johnson et al signings, and with consistency, deny the need for Stammen. In fact, the preceding move and additional.young arms are exactly why I am saying Stammen is not needed. We do not need to group all acquisitions together. We agreed to several minor league RP transactions too.

Last year, I admit RP was a weakness. I just thought we had addressed it.

Ryu and Madbum were also available. There are far more acquisition permutations outside of Keuchel and Hamels.

Quote from TatisJr on January 5, 2020, 2:40 pm

I believe the Padres will use Cal as the long man/6th starter role and if Richards goes down he will likely be the first man to step into the rotation. I too felt really good about Baez in the pen, but it’s better for him and the Padres in terms of value to have him get back to starting. I’m a big believer in Muñoz, but he is incredibly young and the Padres will likely handle him with kid gloves. I don’t expect many back to back appearances or many innings from him. Castillo has had his share of injury issues so the Padres could go easy with him as well in 2020. Stammen gives you some nice reliable insurance with those two as well. I did like what I saw from Bednar, but it was an extremely small sample size and he’s only 24. Perdomo was effective last year, but he blew some games as well and I definitely felt nervous anytime we handed him the ball. Guerra is talented, but I still consider him a project more than I do a reliable BP piece. Part of my excitement with the Stammen deal is it’s team friendly. I thought he would get 3/15 , 3/18, or 2/14 type deal. It appears the Padres locked in one of baseballs better relievers for under market value. I’ll take that any day. Just to add to Brian’s point I think there’s much less risk in spending on Pom, Stammen and Johnson than dropping big money on a Ryu, Hamels, Bum type contract.

Quote from fenn68 on January 5, 2020, 2:50 pm

I probably would not have signed Stammen to that contract ... but to be fair not sure I would have given Pomeranz his deal after such a brief run as an effective RP or Johnson his contract as a failed ML pitcher with his only success in Japan (see Makita). What have Reyes, Wingenter, Guerra, Baez, Munoz done in the ML to make them reliable RP options or even just eat innings?  Can say the same about Castillo. Then throw in everyone favorite Perdomo who some just wanted to release. Lots of potential but other than Yates and maybe Strahm not much that to rely on for 2020.

Since Fowler has made it believed that "heads will roll" in they don't win in 2020 ... you try to minimize the gamble on unproven prospects and interject some veteran stability. The prospects have not gone away ... so if they really do develop ... great they are in and the veterans get moved (or put in the IL). Eight RP over the course of a season usually results in at least 12 bodies in and out.

In the world of ML RP in 2019 ... Stammen was very useful and productive ... not elite but earned his keep stabilizing  (and keeping fresh) the RP corps. He was #7 in MLB in both games and innings as a RP ... that took a lot of workload for the others. Then add his ERA was 3.21 ... 47th in the ML out of the qualified RP. He was #1 for the Padres in games / innings for a RP and #2 in ERA for qualified RP. Work the young kids that much and likely they will become ineffective before they go to the IL.

Work him a bit less ... run him out in the non high leverage situations in the 6th-7th (or in late innings blowouts) ... he will be fine and will keep the arms fresher (more effective) for the high leverage options.

Would have gone another way with the kids IF winning in 2020-21 wasn't prioritized ... but also would not have dealt for Davies or Pham for 2 years or picked-up Profar for 1 year.

Quote from fenn68 on January 5, 2020, 3:21 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 5, 2020, 9:45 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 5, 2020, 5:41 am

Sort of under the radar but the Padres have really added to their Payroll this winter ...now over $150MM. Consider:

$8.6MM ... Pham

$6.0MM ... Pomeranz (plus $2MM bonus)

$5.7MM ... Profar

$5.0MM... Davies

$4.0MM ... Stammen

$2.5MM ... Johnson

So over $30MM of adds while only dropping a couple of million by dealing Renfroe. Padres are now in the top half (last I looked) of MLB payrolls. Considering I did not expect them to breach $130MM ... pleasantly surprised.

=====

In 2021 the Padres will drop about the same amount with FA Yates, Profar, Richards and dead money dropping off for Kinsler, Olivera, Loup, and Warren.

So IF $150MM is the new payroll limit (target) ... room next winter for some strategic adds and/or the extension of Yates. Much will depend on how this ML roster does in 2020 along with the development of the prospects.

Your math skews a little high.  Assuming Stammen @ 4 MM no signing bonus in 2020, and still counting Kinsler's likely reduced or at least "stretched" 3.75 MM in 2020, I have 2020 payroll incl 8 minimum guys @ 600K each at:  $145 MM.

Pomeranz' '20 salary is only 4 MM + I added 2 MM of bonus (assumed split evenly over 4 yrs) = 6 MM total.  Did you back out Renfroe's salary?

But point taken... even if Kinsler were "$0", Pads are definitely > 140 MM total payroll right now.  Could shave tiny amounts by trading Perdomo, extending Yates with 2020 slightly < projected arb amount.  Other than that can only make a dent trading a "medium" asset like Hedges, or of course Myers + ?

Used "Roster Resource" which is usually pretty current ... and they are at $156MM (although should be a bit less on a cash basis the bonus amortizations for Myers and Machado). They have Pomeranz at $6MM (base and bonus I guess). They have already included the Stammen signing. So, think $150MM should be in the zone for cash.

Side note: used to go to Cot's but they have been "sloppy" of late. They have the Padres at $142MM BUT have not included Pham nor Stammen, the buyout of Warren and Loup ... and Kinsler (who is still an open question on what he is getting paid). Then again they still have Renfroe with the Padres. Adjust for those issues and they would be in that $156MM range.

The exact dollar amount is not really relevant to the point that the Padres committing more money to the team that they ever have ...

Quote from fenn68 on January 5, 2020, 3:32 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 5, 2020, 10:57 am

I think there's a significant chance that after the Stammen re-sign, Preller & Padres are "done" & we're looking at our 2020 Padres.

With payroll now > 140 MM & the problems inherent with trading Myers + ? opening more holes, there just isn't a lot of $ to work with for even a lower cost in $$ addition like Merrifield.

Think Pads shift here to wait & watch mode esp for FA OF to sign & see if trade market anywhere potentially shifts in their favor.  Focus in meantime moves to Arb signings with most attention there paid to first extending Yates, and then Tatis!

Agree ... baring a hard to envision move that adds an upgrade who is still at league minimum (or year 1 arb) ... e.g. Senzel for 2B (just an example not a prediction or proposal).

Plus other than Myers .... not much that could (would) be moved that clears much payroll other than some "fringe dollars" embedded in Hedges, Garcia, Perdomo, and Strahm.

Don't see KC doing it but Merrifield is only at $5MM and a great contract going forward for his production ... bet Preller could convince ownership to go the extra $5MM in 2020 for him knowing the drop in payroll coming after 2020.