Quote from fenn68 on January 22, 2021, 9:28 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 22, 2021, 9:05 am

Good analysis from MLBTR...

That said, the inclusion of the two opt-out clauses effectively saps any upside for the Padres in this contract. If Profar reverts to his ways as a light-hitting utility piece without a position where he’s a true plus defender, the Friars will be on the hook for the full $21MM. If he, at any point, performs at an above-average level, he’ll surely head back to the open market in search of a larger deal — especially given his relative youth. The best outcome for the Padres would be for Profar to rake in 2021 and head back to market, and this contract structure is essentially a $21MM bet that that’ll be the case.

I would also (as I suggested) think that the Padres have a view of where Profar may bottom ... and what that performance level is worth (and what it would cost to replace that production) ... so maybe this "risk" to them is NOT a total collapse costing $7MM but maybe just a lower performance level worth $5MM (in this market) ... so "downside" cost could be a lot less than the headline number.

Plus if he is good enough to opt out ... he is good enough to resign at a fair price. Since I don't see him fitting the profile as an everyday LF .. not sure much more that $7MM would be on the table for him as a super utility player.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 22, 2021, 9:30 am

Fenn said - probably true ... but at what cost give the minimal use either would get over the season. Maybin at this stage is more a $1.5MM type ... Marisnik more of a CF who could start somewhere (a few teams need CF) so likely much more costly.

Well, we will have to see on this one. He didnt start for the Mets last season, and they didnt have a true CFer on the team besides him. I think Nimmo got most of the starts, and the talking heads on XM view Nimmo as more of a corner guy. So, maybe a team takes another shot on Marisnki; however, his salary was only $3.3M last season, and the Mets nor the Astros viewed him as a starter, so he might see the light and come to SD on a back up role, with a serious chance at another WS trip.

Quote from WindsorUK on January 22, 2021, 10:25 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 22, 2021, 8:53 am

It is utterly insane that we literally have 6? MLB capable SS's:  Tatis, Machado, Jake, Kim, Profar, Mateo

.... when we didn't have ONE for years!!

Good call,  Brian!

It's like busses here in London- none come along in an hour, then 3 come at once😂

Like the signing a lot. And I really like your guys idea about bringing back Cameron.

This is going to be an AWESOME  year!

Quote from fenn68 on January 22, 2021, 10:39 am

Side notes on Profar:

MLBTradeRumors had him projected at $7MM / 1 year ... so the price point seem fair market from a neutral perspective. Just now three $7MM/yr deals.

Looking back at 2018 (Tex), 2019 (Oak), and 2020 (SD) ... offensively not big variances and reasonable to expect a baseline of wRC+ at 100 (average) with upside. From a WAR standpoint a baseline expectation of 1.5-2.0 with upside. Both would support the $7MM deal.

What surprised me a bit was the quality of his LF defense ... statistically. In 282 innings he delivered a +0.6 dWAR / 4 DRS. In comparison, Pham in 149 innings delivered a -1.6 dWAR / - 1 DRS. Pretty big difference and clearly Profar not a liability if needed in LF.

In 2020 for LF with > 140 innings .... Profar ranked #7 in dWAR ..... Pham ranked #21 (right behind Naylor).

 

 

Quote from Randy Manese on January 22, 2021, 11:17 am

Love the signing but still concerned that we don't have an experienced back-up CF if Grisham goes down.  Expect that Profar will get a lot of reps in CF in ST and we will also likely see in ST if Padres still have Abrams pegged for 2b or a move to CF.  Because of his speed, I like Abrams over Grisham in CF although both don't have particularly strong arms; Grisham would take over in LF.  Word is that they'll still play Abrams at SS in Hi A or AA  but if they want to get his bat and speed into the line-up, particularly after Pham leaves, then a position change may come sooner than later.  I look at Hassell as more of a RF than CF to eventually take the place of Myers but we shall see what this minor league season will bring.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 22, 2021, 11:22 am

Randy, I agree. I hope we see SD moving Abrams to CF, and they have Grisham slide to LF or RF, based on how Hassell progresses.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 22, 2021, 12:49 pm

I wouldn’t expect to see Abrams move off of SS any time soon.

Trader Preller knows Abrams value is highest as a shortstop.

 

Quote from WindsorUK on January 22, 2021, 1:07 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 22, 2021, 12:49 pm

I wouldn’t expect to see Abrams move off of SS any time soon.

Trader Preller knows Abrams value is highest as a shortstop.

 

This!

If anything,  look for Abrams to get time in LF( think Vince Coleman, or if power develops, Ricky Henderson)

I HATE when we move successful players out of position( Klesko, Nevin, Myers).

Keep CJ at SS as long as possible.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 22, 2021, 1:16 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 22, 2021, 12:49 pm

I wouldn’t expect to see Abrams move off of SS any time soon.

Trader Preller knows Abrams value is highest as a shortstop.

 

If that's the case, then expect to never see Abrams in a ML SD uniform. As he will not replace Tatis.