Quote from Randy Manese on January 5, 2021, 10:41 am

SF basically built up a serviceable OF (Yaz, Dubon, Dickerson) with low profile trades, although Pomeranz was involved in the Dubon trade.  They've done a great job of finding bats for both the infield and outfield although many are not known for their defensive ability.

The question is whether the Padres really need an established everyday OF they can plug in as their 4th OF, of which there are actually very few in FA, or do they just add a pinch hitting, occasional defensive bench piece.  I'm with the group that says we need a solid 4th OF and we just don't have those in our minor league system at the moment (but soon to come!) For that reason, I've been looking at teams like Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Detroit among others who have some talent in the OF and may be looking to dump what is modest salary (4-5M) or want several younger prospects because their window of opportunity is still much farther away than when these OF's hit their peak worth.

I think that O'Grady may surprise and be a decent 4th or 5th OF but we need another from the right side.  Who that is and what Preller has to give up will be the question.  To me, like many have said, the ideal player would be Kevin Pillar, who at 32 is just the right age to contribute for a couple of years until our young OF's are ready.  On the other hand, if we do make a trade for a 26-28 year old, they would be very good insurance during the transition from Pham/Myers to Abrams/Head/Hassell and not suffer a huge drop in productivity that losing those veteran players would create.  Again, all about money and how management sees the team needs going forward.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 5, 2021, 10:43 am

Quote from hoffy51 on January 5, 2021, 9:57 am

There are SO MANY free agents right now that haven't been signed. I don't think we need to make a trade. I think we can pick someone up at a decent price.

While this is true, what is the Padres payroll really able to go to? It is already $15-16M higher than what most thought here on this site. So if we are maxed out, or close to being maxed out. Would you rather not trade Stammen and Luchessi, and be able to sign Rosenthal? I would rather have a top end closer than a middle inning mop up guy.

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 5, 2021, 10:48 am

MLBTR had an interesting article about de-emphasizing K/9 because guys who give up lots of hits & BB give themselves more opportunity for K's.  So now their focus is on K%, BB%, & K/BB%.   Small sample size of 2020.  Of the 106 "SP" who > 40 IP:

K%:  Lamet - 6th, Darvish - 12th, Snell - 15th, Clevinger -38th, Paddack - 46th, Davies - 52nd, Richards -65th

BB%:  Darvish - 13th, Paddack - 14th, Davies - 41st, Lamet-46th, Richards-60th, Clevinger - 70th, Snell - 77th

K/BB%:  Lamet - 7th, Darvish - 10th, Snell - 21st, Paddack - 35th, Clevinger - 45th, Davies - 46th, Richards - 67th

So Padres now have 3 elite (top 1/5 percentile) K% and K/BB% SP's (despite BB% below avg for Snell).  Only team in MLB.  Bodes really well!   Suspect Clevinger's K% typically higher; weird stop/start season for him.  Paddack upside potential (like 2019) too.

The: Indians, Brewers, & Phillies have 2 of each.  The LAD have 2 in K/BB% (Kershaw & Gonsolin 14th & 15th).  The Reds have 4 top 20 K%, but that includes Bauer & Sonny Gray.

Caratini's elite pitch framing surely helped Darvish.  If Padres split Nola/Caratini's starts something like 60/40, but Caratini is always catching Darvish, that's 50% of his starts.  Maybe have him also (not 100%) focus on Snell; add a few strike calls/game & shrink his BB rate, pushing him up further into the elite range.  Lamet & Paddack limited # of pitches.  Lamet's overwhelming stuff really not "framing dependent", but C does have to be able to handle sliders in the dirt.  Paddack might benefit some, but his control even last season was very good; it's all about his Fastball command & developing/mixing in a 3rd pitch.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 5, 2021, 11:16 am

Quote from Randy Manese on January 5, 2021, 10:41 am

The question is whether the Padres really need an established everyday OF they can plug in as their 4th OF, of which there are actually very few in FA, or do they just add a pinch hitting, occasional defensive bench piece.  I'm with the group that says we need a solid 4th OF and we just don't have those in our minor league system at the moment (but soon to come!) For that reason, I've been looking at teams like Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Detroit among others who have some talent in the OF and may be looking to dump what is modest salary (4-5M) or want several younger prospects because their window of opportunity is still much farther away than when these OF's hit their peak worth.

What about FA LFer Robbie Grossman? He is a switch hitter and is 31 years old, and played all 3 OF spots. Although just sparingly in CF.  Not necessarily a true power guy, does hit doubles and has a career OBP of .350. Seemed like a starter up until 2020, and his salary in 2020 was $3.75M, so maybe takes a little less to come home to SD (born here) and be on a true contender.

Quote from fenn68 on January 5, 2021, 11:28 am

With Pham-Grisham-Myers assumed everyday starters ... and no DH ... would any of the more established FA (Pillar, Grossman, Profar, etc.) really consider the Padres if they had any kind of offer from another team with a better chance of playing time and therefore create a better selling package for next year's FA?

Don't have to be assured of a starting role from another team but they (and their agent) can read rosters and see the better playing opportunities elsewhere.

How aggressive he Padres go probably correlates directly to the NL DH.

Quote from cerati on January 5, 2021, 11:59 am

I would revisit Luis Castillo. Lamet might not be able to go, would you guys move Paddack/Weathers and/or Morejon for Castillo?

Quote from hoffy51 on January 5, 2021, 12:10 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on January 5, 2021, 10:43 am

Quote from hoffy51 on January 5, 2021, 9:57 am

There are SO MANY free agents right now that haven't been signed. I don't think we need to make a trade. I think we can pick someone up at a decent price.

While this is true, what is the Padres payroll really able to go to? It is already $15-16M higher than what most thought here on this site. So if we are maxed out, or close to being maxed out. Would you rather not trade Stammen and Luchessi, and be able to sign Rosenthal? I would rather have a top end closer than a middle inning mop up guy.

I misunderstood what you were saying. Of course I would trade Stammen and Luchessi for a back-up outfielder as a salary dump to be able to sign Rosenthal. I think Rosenthal is the missing piece that would make us really, really, really tough.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 5, 2021, 12:11 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 5, 2021, 11:28 am

How aggressive the Padres go probably correlates directly to the NL DH.

I think we all agree, that if the NL gets the DH, Pham becomes the DH. At that time, then the 4th OF becomes the starting LFer. So I agree, that we almost need someone that can be a starting LFer, which maybe Grossman.

Quote from hoffy51 on January 5, 2021, 12:54 pm

The Padres and all the major league teams have a feature on their websites, "all time single-season team." Very interesting. On the Red Sox site, they left off Ted Williams for Mookie Betts because he was better defensively and stole more bases. Really? Must be some young stat guys making up these lists.