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Off Season Thread
#381 · December 11, 2020, 1:57 pm
I believe by Opening Day there will be 4 new Padres not currently on 40-man roster.
But since our Roster is full now, who goes? Outline of Needs & possibilities:
MLB Roster Needs (4): SP, RP-Closer, 2 position players (INF, OF, maybe C)
Availability / Injury (60-IL): Lawson, Wingenter, Clevinger
Relative Ability / Talent: Lucchesi, Bednar, T. Williams, O’Grady, G. Allen
Readiness / Good MLB team: M. Thompson, Marcano, Lawson, Espinoza, Guerra, Mateo
Flexibility / No Options: Stammen, A. Adams, P. Johnson, Altavilla, T. Williams, Guerra, Mateo, G. Allen
Relative Value / $ issue: Hosmer, Pham, Stammen,
Logical Trade Candidates: Lucchesi, Baez, Stammen, “other RHRP no options”, Guerra, Mateo
IF the Padres could wait until ST began to add players, they would have 3 of the 4 roster spots they’d need just by putting guys on 60-day IL. But of course, they are near certain to need some of the spots before that. It IS possible that any of the MLB roster needs except RP-Closer COULD be Minors deals guys. Unlikely for SP, but possible.
The first decision is likely whether or not to keep Wingenter & his big arm / strong peripherals / strong propensity to give up big hits & too many runs on IL/MLB $ all season, or risk DFA him in hopes he gets outrighted. If keep him, obviously have to remove a healthy player instead. Will EVENTUALLY have to clear the Bullpen logjam especially RHRP with no options, but want the depth into ST, b/c someone will be IL by O.D. Tough call. Wingenter > talent, then some others, but not available on a tight roster. Would be no brainer to keep him if we were at 36 spots.
Lucchesi more talented than the other 4 names there, but way less future upside than the 4 young SP’s on 40 (plus Gore). O’Grady is marginal & could get pushed off, but just signed, so seems unlikely prior to ST. When Lawson is off IL, 4 of 40 spots will be tied up by players who really aren’t MLB ready. That leaves 36 = 10 roster spots to cover all IL-15 & performance issues… NOT ideal for non-optionable Guerra & Mateo to have 2 of those spots. Mateo a way better roster fit who may get his chance to actually play this year, but could also get pushed off roster entirely by a FA like Profar. He & Guerra are potential “prospect for prospect” trades to a bad MLB team.
2020 Myers was worth every $. Hosmer not, but will be back. Pham’s value debatable, but it’s close/= to his arb salary. Stammen has value, but not 4 MM + 1 MM buyout + 500K incentives. Would HAVE to first add a MLB SP to really even “unlock” the possibility of trading Lucchesi.
Obviously other teams would want many of our other better 40-man players/prospects in trades, and some could go in a big trade for an established MLB SP, helping resolve the tight roster, but this list is from Padres P.O.V. of making room & improving 40-man roster.
#382 · December 11, 2020, 2:40 pm
Probably the Padres will have to face the DFA decisions before ST IF they want to add quality. MLB teams may “slow play” the signings but as ST approaches both the teams and the players want some level of certainty for 2021 and ML contact will get done. The exceptions may be the big money contract (e.g. Bauer) who knows he will get a job and has the luxury of dragging it out.
If they are willing to sign a minor league (make good) deal early ... they are likely real fringe options.
With the roster short of position players as it is and SP a question mark with the lack of ML experience ... have to think any “early” DFA (or trade) will be out of the pen and the out of option arms (or Wingenter). Can’t put anyone on the 60 day IL until ST begins.
Sign any FA (or 2) the issue is front and center.
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Outside chance ... since a number of teams have open roster slots ... Preller could swing a trade that moves out of option RP for a non-roster rookie ball prospect. Preller got Williams for a rookie ball arm ... maybe he can reverse that with the RP at league minimum. Doubt he can move Stammen (and his contract) this winter given the glut of RP arms in FA that likely will sign for $1-2MM and would not be that less of an option than Stammen. Think they have to wait until the season to find a contender with a real RP problem to move him (If THEY want to).
#383 · December 11, 2020, 3:32 pm
It will still be "minor", but Preller might be able to do even better than what he gave up for Taylor Williams. But think his value rises closer to Opening Day either for us or another team needing Injury depth early. Think that's true for all the out of options guys in general.
#384 · December 11, 2020, 3:54 pm
Quote from Brian Connelly on December 11, 2020, 3:32 pmIt will still be "minor", but Preller might be able to do even better than what he gave up for Taylor Williams. But think his value rises closer to Opening Day either for us or another team needing Injury depth early. Think that's true for all the out of options guys in general.
Agree if the Padres have the luxury of waiting until the end of ST. If they sign a FA or two ... action will be needed.
I guess Preller’s dilemma is which potential DFA he does early (likely with little return) and which he waits until the end of ST for a potential return.
#385 · December 11, 2020, 5:45 pm
Quote from Brian Connelly on December 11, 2020, 1:43 pmQuote from MrPadre19 on December 11, 2020, 10:46 amThe guys we’ve been discussing are under control for 3 years basically.
So a trade for one of those guys solves the 2021 hole at the top of the rotation and also would factor in “in a couple years” when we should be even more suited to challenge LA.
Previous post: I haven’t seen anyone proposing to trade our top prospects for a 1 year rental.
That's to get 3 year control pitchers all in 10-12 MM AAV territory. WHY not just sign Sugano (or Tanaka, Odorrizzi) to a similar deal AAV and NOT have to trade all that talent/depth to wind up in the same place $ wise on payroll?
Because more times than not, Japanese pitchers are not good. So why waste money on a maybe? And even when they are good, because of the different days of rest, get hurt. I have never really been excited about getting a Japanese pitcher their first venture over.
#386 · December 11, 2020, 8:03 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on December 11, 2020, 5:45 pmQuote from Brian Connelly on December 11, 2020, 1:43 pmQuote from MrPadre19 on December 11, 2020, 10:46 amThe guys we’ve been discussing are under control for 3 years basically.
So a trade for one of those guys solves the 2021 hole at the top of the rotation and also would factor in “in a couple years” when we should be even more suited to challenge LA.
Previous post: I haven’t seen anyone proposing to trade our top prospects for a 1 year rental.
That's to get 3 year control pitchers all in 10-12 MM AAV territory. WHY not just sign Sugano (or Tanaka, Odorrizzi) to a similar deal AAV and NOT have to trade all that talent/depth to wind up in the same place $ wise on payroll?
Because more times than not, Japanese pitchers are not good. So why waste money on a maybe? And even when they are good, because of the different days of rest, get hurt. I have never really been excited about getting a Japanese pitcher their first venture over.
This is why you pay the scouts / talent evaluators .... then “size” what you are willing to pay. Given what Atlanta paid for Smyly ($11MM) ... a high risk option at age 31 ... Sugano does not have to be that dominate to be worth signing (for a reasonable price). Not a lot of low cost / high quality options out there.
Note: not against avoiding any big money FA signing or trade for 2021 ... work through the prospects ... safe the money for next winter’s options.
#387 · December 12, 2020, 6:15 am
David Dahl signs with Texas for $3MM/1 year. Suspect that starting was a key factor for Dahl to build his FA (or arb 3) value next winter hence the early signing in this market and for what I would have thought a “bargain price”.
From a Padres’ perspective ... the cost for a Profar or Alberto or player X might be less than we have been speculating. Really a question of how long the Padres will wait in order to get the asking price to drop to their target.
Not really going to have impact on the top FA ... but as speculated the mid range FA may be getting squeezed.
#388 · December 12, 2020, 8:14 am
If Dahl stays healthy for a full season he’s easily worth 2-3 times that.
Good sign by our Old friend Chris Young!
#389 · December 12, 2020, 3:53 pm
Quote from fenn68 on December 12, 2020, 6:15 amDavid Dahl signs with Texas for $3MM/1 year. Suspect that starting was a key factor for Dahl to build his FA (or arb 3) value next winter hence the early signing in this market and for what I would have thought a “bargain price”.
From a Padres’ perspective ... the cost for a Profar or Alberto or player X might be less than we have been speculating. Really a question of how long the Padres will wait in order to get the asking price to drop to their target.
Not really going to have impact on the top FA ... but as speculated the mid range FA may be getting squeezed.
I'm rooting for Brian O'Grady, and nice to see an older guy like him get a chance, but when you back out his minimum salary, the "net" cost of signing David Dahl vs. O'Grady would have been < 2.5 MM...
O' Grady is 28, and has < 100 MLB AB so is technically still a prospect.
Dahl is 26 and has a .297/.346/.521 line with 38 HRs over 921 PA before 2020. Dahl even earned an All-Star nod in 2019.
Injury prone, yes. But this has to be an early contender for best offseason signing. Think Dahl looking for an open regular spot & benefits from the certainty of an AL DH too. It's not possible for Texas to lose on that signing @ 1/3...
#390 · December 12, 2020, 8:27 pm
Assuming Gray & Rothschild can work together, would this be enough for Gray: Luchessi, Marcano, Mejia & Lawson and/or one of the none option RH RP. Mejia has hit the majority of his home runs in that ballpark. Luchessi gives them a starter, Marcano is a solid 2B prospect. Lawson coming off TJsurgery, and/or maybe Cincy would prefer one of the non-option RH relievers such as Guerra. Gray has pitched well the last two seasons in Cincy, but that is close to his home as he is from Kentucky. I believe the Pads would get 2 years of control of Gray, thus the need for a solid package. This would allow us to clear a few 40-man roster spots to fill out our bench and pen for this upcoming season. Is this a realistic offer or not? What do you guys think? Go Pads!