Forum
Forum Navigation
Off Season Thread
#341 · December 9, 2020, 11:49 am
Quote from Brian Connelly on December 9, 2020, 10:59 amJust don’t know how his agent got a ML contract out of the Padres when every team passed on him (O'Grady) on waivers.
Answer is timing. After making November 20th DFA's & additions, 15 of the 30 MLB teams (including us) had full 40-man rosters.
Almost all teams created more room ON Dec 2nd Non-Tender deadline by NT guys (including us-GG), but it sounds like there are technical reasons teams can't NT prior to that date. So the Rays were only working with 15 of 30 teams during the 7 day DFA window. Others (us 🙂 knew we were going to have a spot open soon; willing to gamble O'Grady would go unclaimed/become FA vs making another roster move right then.
Hedging words ... yes cannot non tender them early but could have just put them on waivers earlier to clear a roster spot. So a full 40 man would not have been a limiting factor.
As it stands, O’Grady may be a useful bench option but given we was DFA by CINN after 2019 and DFA by TB after 2020 ... a team that may really need player for the OF (see Cleveland) did not sign him just leads me to think of him as a fringe piece if he makes the club.
#342 · December 9, 2020, 11:59 am
Although Gray would have no say in getting dealt and re-united with Rothschild ... would it make sense for the Padres to give up legit assets to set up what was a toxic situation between the two .... with the end result having a good chance to be NYY type results (that is bad).
Fire Rothschild ... trade for Gray ... bring back Balsley.
=====
side note in some of those NY articles ... a lot of dissing the NYY analytics department that did a lot of dictating (apparently) on pitch usage by the staff. The Gray slider issue was similar to the love of the slider the analytics had and, some attribute that to some of the issues with Tanaka and Severino.
#343 · December 9, 2020, 12:03 pm
There is a blog on CBS listing 7 other SPs that could be available via trade, after the Lynn trade. Of course, Gray is on that list. Along with Carrasco (CLE), Darvish & Hendricks (CHC), Musgrove (PIT), Snell (TAM), and Wheeler (PHI).
From that list, IMO Darvish and Wheeler are simply too high of dollar amounts. $20M/yr for Darvish and $25M/yr for Wheeler. Pass!
Snell, makes me worried, soft pass. Musgrove is the least expensive, just entering arb, and under control to 2022. Probably the least in the amount of stuff.
Leaving Carrasco, Hendricks, and Gray, all between $10-14M per season, with Gray at $10M, Carrasco at $12M, and Hendricks at $14M. I would imagine the package for all 3 is about the same, a high end prospect (our top 4), and 1 or 2 mid level prospects.
If thats the case, which of three is your pick?
#344 · December 9, 2020, 12:13 pm
Quote from fenn68 on December 9, 2020, 11:59 amAlthough Gray would have no say in getting dealt and re-united with Rothschild ... would it make sense for the Padres to give up legit assets to set up what was a toxic situation between the two .... with the end result having a good chance to be NYY type results (that is bad).
Fire Rothschild ... trade for Gray ... bring back Balsley.
=====
side note in some of those NY articles ... a lot of dissing the NYY analytics department that did a lot of dictating (apparently) on pitch usage by the staff. The Gray slider issue was similar to the love of the slider the analytics had and, some attribute that to some of the issues with Tanaka and Severino.
That's why I said "If AJ wants to make the deal"...that would be assuming it's been discussed and should not be an issue.
Also yes....bring back Balsley.
#345 · December 9, 2020, 12:16 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on December 9, 2020, 12:03 pmThere is a blog on CBS listing 7 other SPs that could be available via trade, after the Lynn trade. Of course, Gray is on that list. Along with Carrasco (CLE), Darvish & Hendricks (CHC), Musgrove (PIT), Snell (TAM), and Wheeler (PHI).
From that list, IMO Darvish and Wheeler are simply too high of dollar amounts. $20M/yr for Darvish and $25M/yr for Wheeler. Pass!
Snell, makes me worried, soft pass. Musgrove is the least expensive, just entering arb, and under control to 2022. Probably the least in the amount of stuff.
Leaving Carrasco, Hendricks, and Gray, all between $10-14M per season, with Gray at $10M, Carrasco at $12M, and Hendricks at $14M. I would imagine the package for all 3 is about the same, a high end prospect (our top 4), and 1 or 2 mid level prospects.
If thats the case, which of three is your pick?
Give me the Lefty!.....Oh wait!
i would prefer bringing I a Southpaw but of these I think I'd prefer in this order.
Hendricks
Carrasco
Gray
But that is disregarding the $$ cost.
If things are as tight as it is reported you could almost go in the exact opposite order.
#346 · December 9, 2020, 12:55 pm
I would probably go with Carrasco first ... with only 2 years control ($12MM/$12MM) he may not command the trade chips that Gray or Hendricks will plus Cleveland may even more interested in dropping payroll than CINN. Cubs may want to lower payroll but probably will not be their prime motivation.
Plus ... after his return from cancer ... Carrasco is a stud pitcher. He is 33 but the others are 31 ... so age not a major separator.
Get two years of a TOR arm and maybe the lowest price in terms of trade chips going back and with all the remaining pitching prospects in the queue over the next few years ... might be the best for the short and long run balance.
Stay away from Snell!!!!!! Musgrove could be a good add ... not TOR but a durable fit for the mid/bottom of the rotation.
#347 · December 9, 2020, 1:14 pm
Let us not forget Sugano ... money yes / prospect cost zero. Have a month to get a deal done.
IF trading for a $10MM plus pitchers for multiple years is in play ... then signing a FA for similar money and giving up zero prospects should be a serious consideration.
#348 · December 9, 2020, 5:18 pm
Quote from fenn68 on December 9, 2020, 1:14 pmLet us not forget Sugano ... money yes / prospect cost zero. Have a month to get a deal done.
IF trading for a $10MM plus pitchers for multiple years is in play ... then signing a FA for similar money and giving up zero prospects should be a serious consideration.
YESSSS!!! Thanks for posting this. WHY would we trade Top 100 SP prospects (Gore, Weathers, Morejon who all received from 5 - 11 MM in signing bonus) to acquire a guy in trade IF there is a roughly equivalent FA option available in both years control & total $??
If the posting fee (think "signing bonus") is really the only stumbling block: 1) You're effectively paying 5-10 MM ANYWAY by trading an elite prospect who cost that much 2-4 years ago, 2) you go to Machado and say "we'll pay you 6 MM in 1-2 years if you give us 5 MM now"... posting fee found. No brainer. 2022 -2023 payroll increase a problem that's an eternity away.
The cash flow issue of the posting fee is a minor deterrent for all teams to signing Sugano, but for big $ teams this is just a blip maybe even in Covid. However, for small to medium budget teams , they might not have forward contract structures that "work" so ideally for this as us with Machado vs. Hosmer & Myers' huge decrease in 2023 to shift the $ forward easily.
#349 · December 9, 2020, 5:41 pm
I have the feeling IF Preller is really sold on Sugano and he sells the idea of posting fee vs. trading a top prospect for the future in order to get that SP ... he can get Siedler to pony up the extra money. (Might not have with Fowler).
If the add a quality SP is the given, then posting fee vs. the future from the elite prospects is the question.
=====
Not sure about getting Machado to defer (or if that is really needed). He might but just not sure how he (his agent) would want the compensation. Could be simple as money in future years adjusted for inflation and doing the agreement. Could be they want some no trade protection (I don’t think he got that ... will at 5/10 after 3 more years) and he has an opt out after 3 more years. Sounds like a set-up for shifting money to 2023 but with maybe a no trade provision added beyond just the escalation.
Padres would probably prefer to add money to each of his last 6 years to minimize any single year hit.
Probably not a consideration unless they needed BIG money for a BIG signing ...
#350 · December 9, 2020, 7:33 pm
Quote from fenn68 on December 9, 2020, 1:14 pmLet us not forget Sugano ... money yes / prospect cost zero. Have a month to get a deal done.
IF trading for a $10MM plus pitchers for multiple years is in play ... then signing a FA for similar money and giving up zero prospects should be a serious consideration.
Except its not a one for one comparison. I believe the list is longer of failures than successes with Japanese pitchers coming to the ML. They days of rest, the better hitters in ML, the culture, the language, these all lead to different levels of success. Not many are Darvish.
I think I would lean towards a more known in trading for a proven ML SP. Even some of us on here are saying that Patino could end up a RP, not a starter. Prospects dont always pan out..... so there is a point to taking the better guarantee. Especially with SD in a spot to really contend.