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Apparently the Reds are “listening” to offers on Sonny Gray ... part of their apparently cost cutting agenda. Padres?

Gray just turned 31 and has 3 years control at $10.7MM - $10.7MM - $12.5MM (option). That is a pretty good contract for his quality. Been pitching in the ML since 2013 with only two poor seasons: 2016 (injured part of the season) and 2018 (they ugly year in NY with the Yankees). Otherwise seems to stay healthy and carries a <3.50 ERA.

Clearly CINN wants prospects for the future at minimum cost ... not sure whether volume or quality in a couple appeals more.

Three years of proven SP is worth a lot ... more so with a good contract. Would you pursue Gray ... and what would you offer and would CINN find a better offer from another team?

Given the Padres don’t have that deep, near term set of prospects behind the “elite” prospects in their Top 10 ... probably would require tapping into “elite” prospects to get it done. Probably Gore or Patino ... less likely Morejon or Weathers.

I would absolutely trade for Gray. The one concern that I have; and I think you mentioned it Fenn, is can Gray and Rothschild work together? Rothschild was there in NYY for that ugly year. So was it Rothschild, NYY Stadium, or a combo of both?

As far as trade pieces. I saw one blog were someone proposed Gray and Rece Hinds for Cronenworth and Ryan Weathers. I dont like filling one hole by creating another. So I would say no to that. I am not sure what CINN needs or wholes in their MiL system. Would love to build something around Pham for Gray, but that would probably defeat CINN reasoning for trading Gray. Although it would save them $2.7M this season, and then Pham is a FA.

Maybe Gray for Patino, Luchessi, and Blake Hunt???

2021 rotation of Lamet, Gray, Davies, Paddock, and then rookie looks really good IMO.

We see the "national prospect evaluations" but really do not know the current Padre view of those same players ... or for that matter what the CINN scouts think.

Is the order really Gore - Patino - Morejon - Weathers after the Padres watching them in 2020? They are all young and developing so that sort of is a wash.

Not so sure I would not do a Weathers + Cronenworth for Gray + a prospect (not really into Hinds). 2B are not that hard to replace at a fair price (and the Padres have a very good "other 7") plus ... just me ... but a bit cautions about Cronenworth (who overall I like) being as good as we saw in 2020. Great Jul/Aug to a poor Sept plus poor vs. LHP. Might be selling high. Essentially the plus of Gray > the minus of the difference between Cronenworth and his replacement. (side note: Marcano and Abrams are coming attractions for 2B auditions ... maybe as soon as 2022).

Patino + Hunt probably could work without a third piece and frankly until the prospects get innings under their belts ... Lucchesi as the #5 can pitch innings with a near 4.00 ERA, so not eager to move him if dealing one of the prospects arms.

Although I can't see avoiding moving one of the top four prospect arms ... the supporting piece(s) could go a lot of ways ...

Thought about the Gray - Rothchild connection in NY ... no idea if they had issues. However, if anything Rothchild may be giving Preller some insider information that could sway the level of interest.

Then again from Barstool Sports' article:

"Sonny opened up about that in this article and without directly naming him, expressed his hatred for Larry Rothschild."  The article is longish ... but said Rothchild did not really work with him when he was struggling and pushed him to focus on throwing more sliders and less curveballs with resulted in poor results from both.

Often these are just excuse vehicles but Gray was good the year before and good the year after ... so?

Actually found a number of other articles that are along the same line of a disconnect between Gray and Rothchild. Think you can write-off that trade as long as Rothchild is in SD.

When stumbling around the Sonny Gray articles .... found a lot of articles out of NY that really dumped on Rothchild's coaching abilities. Take that for what it is worth.

Quote from 3fingersplit on December 8, 2020, 8:42 pm

Brian O'Grady sounds like this years version of Jurickson Profar......can play all three outfield spots and MLB reported he plays 1B and 3B, Left Handed hitter and has wheels so he can run and get you a bag if needed.

Sounds like AJ and staff found a very real possibility to replace Profar and Garcia in one felled swoop. They must have seen something that the Rays didn't

Remember that the Rays are a World Series roster AND the best Farm system in MLB!  They simply had to make a tough call on O'Grady on Nov 20th to create room on their 40-man for the prospects they protected.  O'Grady was DFA the same day Hunter Renfroe was.  I found this from just before opening day 2020:

Beyond the 26-man roster
If Tampa Bay learned anything in 2019, it’s that a team uses more than the Opening Day roster to get through a full season. The Rays used 57 players last season -- a franchise record -- and that experience led them to stockpile as much talent as possible, even if it means some deserving players start the season in the Minors.

Randy Arozarena and Brian O'Grady are perfect examples: Both were acquired via offseason trades, and they will likely start the season at Triple-A Durham, but each made a big impression over the last four weeks. Arozarena, 25, hit .400 in 20 at-bats, with nine walks and three stolen bases, and he likely would be the first to be called up whenever the big league club needs an outfielder. O'Grady, on the other hand, impressed with his ability to play multiple positions -- and play them well. The 27-year-old can play all three outfield spots, as well as third and first. He also showed off some power, launching two home runs in 23 at-bats.

Arozarena emerged as a star, burying O'Grady @ Alt site, and obviously going forward on THEIR roster.  A CF/1B is a weird combo, but that really is where he's spent the most time in both 2019 & his career.  His biggest opportunity will be in corner OF, esp LF; where he's a really good fit as LH.

2019 starts:   61 – 1B, 28 – CF, 15 – LF, 3 – 3B, 1 - RF

Career:        162 – CF, 144- 1B, 127 – LF, 47 – RF, 7 -3B

Don't care how much we need pitching we can't be including the NL Rookie of the Year in any deals.

We had a big hole at 2b and now we have a fantastic all around player there at minimum cost.

As far as Gray is concerned it sounds like his cost in dollars is just about the same as Snells'.

So which ever costs less in prospects I'm OK with.

While it sounds like there could be an issue with the Pitching coach and the player considering this is a trade proposal and not a free agent signing Gray/Rothschild would have to get over it is AJ decides he wants Gray.

I'd prefer we use Patino and a couple others over Gore/Weathers/Cronenworth involved.

I hope I'm wrong(probably am) but I just have a feeling Patino will end up at the back end of a Bullpen within a couple seasons.

 

Just don’t know how his agent got a ML contract out of the Padres when every team passed on him (O'Grady) on waivers.

Answer is timing.  After making November 20th DFA's & additions, 15 of the 30 MLB teams (including us) had full 40-man rosters.

Almost all teams created more room ON  Dec 2nd Non-Tender deadline by NT guys (including us-GG), but it sounds like there are technical reasons teams can't NT prior to that date.   So the Rays were only working with 15 of 30 teams during the 7 day DFA window.  Others (us 🙂 knew we were going to have a spot open soon; willing to gamble O'Grady would go unclaimed/become FA vs making another roster move right then.

Quote from 3fingersplit on December 8, 2020, 8:42 pm

Brian O'Grady sounds like this years version of Jurickson Profar......can play all three outfield spots and MLB reported he plays 1B and 3B, Left Handed hitter and has wheels so he can run and get you a bag if needed.

Sounds like AJ and staff found a very real possibility to replace Profar and Garcia in one felled swoop. They must have seen something that the Rays didn't

Kind of.  Think about this...  covering by % of time played at each position for Pads in 2021

O'Grady (L)  -    LF /  RF / 1B / 3B / CF     Primarily spot starts in corners vs RHP for RH Pham & Myers

Mateo (R)   -      2B  /  CF /  SS           Primarily spot starts @ 2B & CF vs LHP for LH Cronenworth & Grisham

Utterly unproven, but a chance to be a "combined poor man's Profar"

Padres "equivalent" trade for Lance Lynn would have been:

  • Ryan Weathers -  Matching scouting grades for his pitches, better control 60 vs 55 then Dunning.
  • Drake Fellows RHP was our 2019 6th round pick.

Not that SD was in on Lynn, but Texas probably needed someone more ready to plug into MLB than Weathers.

@Ken_Rosenthal

Padres were in on Lynn, just as they were at deadline, sources tell me and @jaysonst

SD initially sought offense (me: ???), but worries rotation will not provide enough innings. Snell and Gray other possible targets. Team also wants late-inning reliever (Yates?) and utility man (Profar?)

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