Quote from fenn68 on December 6, 2020, 12:03 pm

The problem with DFA of Wingenter or Bednar in the winter and holding on to Williams, Altavilla, Guerra is the option. All of the out of options RP will not make the 26 man roster (maybe none) given the number of high positioned RP and only 8 slots then they get DFA in ST. More difficult if the Padres actually sign another RP. However, can option Wingenter and Bednar and can put Wingenter on the 60 day opening up a 40 man slot.

Given the demand for RP options in MLB ... even though I really don’t think much of any of them for the future ... good chance they get claimed or if not opt for FA (if they can) to seek a better position in another organization. Yes, even Wingenter is a good claim target with the option and 60 day IL allowing for an open roster slot. He may not have been productive with the Padres but he had the “stuff” that could appeal for an investment for the future by some team.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 7, 2020, 8:39 am

You're right on Bednar, but I doubt it on Wingenter.   Bednar's ability is near the edge of the 40-man, but his "stash-ability" to move up/down is valuable.  Would not be stunned if he is an offseason casualty for other roster needs, but he has value & modest upside.

Wingenter more upside than Bednar, but his options are meaningless since he can't pitch all season (7/20 TJ Surgery).  NOT DFA him actually prevents a needed roster spot from opening before ST for FA, which is probably on the verge of heating up after the virtual GM meetings.  Him going on 60-IL (like Clevinger & probably Lawson) eventually opens the spot, but why DFA/trade healthy competition/depth in bullpen first?  With the 2 injured SP's + other new protects + Espinoza, that's already 5 players of 40 who will not be on O.D. roster.  Have to free up roster spots for guys who will be at some point.

In this offseason, when we keep talking about a 15 MM spending limit & need 4-5 MLB players, doesn't seem like a good use of 550-600K.  Maybe some wide open roster deep pocketed team claims him, but highly doubt it; he would be arb eligible next  year if kept on roster all 2021.  Most likely a DFA / outright like Jake Nix & Brett Kennedy--also 2015 drafteees- were last offseason.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 7, 2020, 9:07 am

Since talking Bullpen...

I feel strongly we need to "add" (or re-sign, really) ONE RH Closer in the Bullpen.   But I don't get the chatter that we need "more" RP than that.  What do you guys think?

The entire Bullpen was remade last offseason with the additions of:  Pomeranz, Pagan, P. Johnson, plus Stammen re-upped.  Then Tim Hill before season.  Then (Rosenthal), A. Adams, Altavilla, & T. Williams at the deadline.

All 12 guys currently on roster controlled at least 2 years.  Plus a closer type = 13.  Only Castillo (L), Hill (L), & Bednar are "really" optionable.  Strahm & Pagan still have option/s, but @ 2 MM each not going to be.

Some will go.  I keep proposing the Stammen (and Guerra) trade, but really need pen depth entering  ST; someone will get hurt but don't know who.  Main point:  RP seems like the only position on roster we can make moves to create roster spots for FA.  So can't just use those spots created to add more RP beyond one... can we?

Quote from fenn68 on December 7, 2020, 9:38 am

Frankly I would not go out of my way to avoid a DFA of any of the five at the tail end of RHRP options. With one open roster slot .... probably not even an issue for some time as MLB "slow plays" the FA signings into next year.

Listened to one analyst suggesting at the back end of most bullpens are fill with options that are really not all that different that each other in terms of quality and not all that much different that many non-roster prospects ready to make their move. With the volatility in performance in RP ... can't really predict the back end guys year to year. Basically, don't sweat the back end unless there is a clear set of superior options. Padres don't have that clear set of superior options .. at least for RHRP. Does support the opinion that the Padres want to add one or two "better" options in the pen. With the normal eight slots (likely three go LH) ... setting up:

LHRP (3): Pomeranz; Strahm; Hill; ... with Castillo in the minors to start the season (has to shake off 2 years of rust)

RHRP (5):

1. Pagan (29) ... career 3.39 ERA / 204 innings

2. Johnson (29) ... last season 2.70 / 20 innings upon his return from Japan ($2MM contract)

3.  Adams (29) ... career 3.86 / 42 innings (out of options)

4. Stammen (36) ... career 3.69 / 756 innings ($4MM contract) ... keep in mind the innings need

======

5. IF the Padres don't add a RP ... #5 is out of the following (two get DFA):

Altavilla (28) ... career 4.00 / 115 innings (out of options)

Williams (29) ... career 5.38 / 78 innings (out of options)

Guerra (25) ... career 8.18 / 22 innings (out of options)

Bednar (option available) and some non-roster name such as Wilson should be in the mix. Note that it appears that the Padres want to focus the Patino, Morejon, Weathers, Baez on developing as SP with (for now) one getting the #5 SP slot and the others in the minors to develop some innings growth.

I am OK with the LHRP set-up with both Pomeranz and Strahm effective as RP. Not so comfortable with the RHRP being contender quality from a depth standpoint. Not sure ... beyond Pagan ... any have the track record to rely on and clear not four. Seeing why the Padres may want to add a more reliable higher level option.

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 7, 2020, 9:53 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 7, 2020, 9:07 am

Since talking Bullpen...

I feel strongly we need to "add" (or re-sign, really) ONE RH Closer in the Bullpen.   But I don't get the chatter that we need "more" RP than that.  What do you guys think?

The entire Bullpen was remade last offseason with the additions of:  Pomeranz, Pagan, P. Johnson, plus Stammen re-upped.  Then Tim Hill before season.  Then (Rosenthal), A. Adams, Altavilla, & T. Williams at the deadline.

All 12 guys currently on roster controlled at least 2 years.  Plus a closer type = 13.  Only Castillo (L), Hill (L), & Bednar are "really" optionable.  Strahm & Pagan still have option/s, but @ 2 MM each not going to be.

Some will go.  I keep proposing the Stammen (and Guerra) trade, but really need pen depth entering  ST; someone will get hurt but don't know who.  Main point:  RP seems like the only position on roster we can make moves to create roster spots for FA.  So can't just use those spots created to add more RP beyond one... can we?

Expect zero bidders on Stammen (and his $4MM contract) in this market with with a ton of RP as FA and teams being "frugal". Would need to add a much more valuable prospect than an ineffective / out of options Guerra.

If the Padres ... who need an improved pen are trying to deal Stammen ... would guess the other GMs will basically say Stammen must not be all that good and would not even just take him (and his contract) for a PTNL.

I am sort of ... for now ... putting Stammen and Lucchesi in the same category ... less that desirable upside but a proven history of eating innings with mid-range performance (yes there are a lot of pitchers much worse in the ML). Looking at the past workloads of the current in-house options (2020 and career) ... beginning to really buy into the problem that a 162 games season / 1450 inning demand will create without a few rubber armed innings eaters to keep the primary arms fresher.

Quote from fenn68 on December 7, 2020, 10:05 am

Since we are on pitching ... I can also see the interest in another SP driven as much by the ability to carry a full season workload beyond just quality. Would like 5 starters that can be expected to go 150-180 innings over 30-32 starts and keep the workload on the pen contained.

Lamet, Davies, Paddack, and Lucchesi have the history to suggest they can carry that workload.

Looking at the histories of Morejon, Patino, Weathers, Baez, and Gore .. and coming off the light load of 2020 ... can't expect that from them (or maybe don't even want to try which may lead to injury).

If they go with two in some sort of "piggyback" idea ... that cuts someone out of the pen and also limits the use of both of these guys as RP options. Not ideal for the ML club or really for their development. Maybe they go with some rotational approach among these guy with ML time and minor league time using the minor league time to control workload?

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 7, 2020, 12:55 pm

Expect zero bidders on Stammen (and his $4MM contract) in this market with with a ton of RP as FA and teams being "frugal". Would need to add a much more valuable prospect than an ineffective / out of options Guerra.

insert my "beating a dead horse" emoji here... remember those? 🙂  Was proposing Guerra separately (as a "Rule 5" pick swap); not with Stammen....

Stammen worth something for his health/reliability/inning eating, but nowhere near 1/5+ (or 2/8+) MM his contract.   Guerra not a good fit in a Stammen trade as another RHRP that can't be optioned & agree little "$" value, but I think some "prospect" value.  The obvious fit with Stammen IS Lucchesi, who is worth > his minimum salary as an MLB proven 150+ IP SP.  Less proven, possibly more upside:  Michel Baez.  Stammen + Joey or Baez for... either $ relief & best non-roster prospect possible OR a proven MLB bench player at a position of need for < 5 MM.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 7, 2020, 1:12 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 5, 2020, 9:49 am

Read a CBS piece that based on Sugaro’s age / performance contrasted to other Japanese pitchers who signed with MLB ... a $56MM/4 year deal seems in the zone ($14MM) as a projected #3 starter. Then add the posting fee.

Pretty good chunk of money for the Padres .... maybe a contract that is significantly back loaded (but that may hinder trading him if he is less than hoped).

 

Sugano was just officially posted.  From MLBTR:

Sugano’s fastball averages 92-93 mph and, like his curveball, boasts a strong spin rate. Sports Info Solution’s Will Hoefer took a look at him last October, calling him at least a No. 4 starter in the big leagues, and that was after an injury-hindered campaign as opposed to the strong 2020 showing Sugano just authored. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel also labels him a likely fourth starter, noting that he’d have a chance at three years with an annual value in excess of $10MM in a normal offseason but projecting a slightly more measured two-year, $24MM deal due to the sport’s revenue losses. Sugano would’ve been included on MLBTR’s own list of the game’s top 50 free agents had it been known for certain that he’d be posted at the time of publishing.

...I like "2/24" or "3/30+" a lot more than "4/56".   SP's have been coming in way over projected, but the posting fee of $5 MM per 25 MM of contract (slightly less % > 25 MM, but close) is a huge hurdle for many teams with the big 2020/2021 projected losses.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 7, 2020, 1:34 pm

I want to keep Rosenthal.

Yates not as much.

Not sure what he will get offered from other teams but he really embraced San Diego and this team and was simply lights out.

If we can sign him and add a starter via trade like Lynn I'd be content.

Can improve the bench(considering who we currently have) with DFA's during spring training.

Some good players(or at least better than Allen/Mateo) will be looking for a  job in March/April.