Quote from Brian Connelly on December 4, 2020, 1:30 pm

Not all that sure interested in messing with any contract for the minimal dollars considered just to squander it in the short run on marginal pieces with little longer term value.

Whoa!  I agree Padres should not "chase" what we lost with Clevinger's TJ by trading another 3-4 prospects for Blake Snell or whomever.  And it's "not my $" , but I assume payroll not expanding in '21.  But disagree with the above characterization.

1. Now that we know Pads are sticking with Pham = a SOLID starting 8, and NT's have happened, it looks like a very affordable FA market for 4th OF & Util INF (sorry Profar),  but very expensive for SP's.
2. The need to "unlock" Stammen's $ for a better use is made harder by Clev surgery b/c now we need all the SP we can get to survive a longer season.  It's intertwined with somehow adding a SP so we can "afford" to trade one out with Stammen.
3. In my mind, the $ available "flows" like this:   15-20 MM available;  Let's say 18 MM.   "Exchange" Stammen's $ (+ SP) for "Yates".  Still roughly 17 MM left.  Spend 5 MM on:  4th OF & backup INF.  Now 12 MM left....  so the "minimal $$ considered" of, in my example, 6 MM  deferred isn't for a "short run marginal piece"...   it's specifically to create enough $$$ to get over the top to sign Sugano to plug the gaping SP hole with multiple years control.  Try to somehow cap Sugano @ 15 MM 1st year, "leaves" 3 MM to spend on DH if neccy, other minor pieces.

Bottom line:  Could have lived without the salary deferral until the Clev TJ.  The 3-4 MM "saved" with his salary (hmmm... backloaded into 2021 when more likely to actually receive it) is not enough within the total payroll available to effectively replace him in the rotation.  A small salary deferral might create win-win solution to sign a guy we'd otherwise be unable to. 

I admit I didn't look much past 2021.  I do assume Pads payroll peaks in 2022 anyway (Tatis hits arb, and we only "clear" < 20 MM as FA right now:  Davies & Pham).

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 4, 2020, 1:34 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 4, 2020, 1:16 pm

It has become more and more like having a deep and elite Bullpen is the equivalent of having another TOR Starter.

The Padres won a Playoff game using nothing but their Pen and TB and others have also.

This never would have happened just 10 years ago.....

Yes... in the playoffs.  But it really didn't work over even a 60 game season when we sent Lucchesi down to minors.  I know the Rays have some success with "openers", but think it's becoming clear that strategy works better WITH "SP's" who can then go 5 IP after the opener...   you just can't get through a season pitching 7 guys a game.

Quote from fenn68 on December 4, 2020, 1:58 pm

Not a fan of openers. More of view with SP going 5-6 innings max even before the shortened 2020 which will ... for MLers and prospects ... cause a problem to go deeper (or even a full season) in 2021  .... going to need quality RP every day to cover the 6th through 9th ... and with just a couple of top RP they will be burned out by August.

Add that with RP being more frequently needed there is a justifiable trend to have quality going in those “high leverage” situations even if that is in the 7th ... but that puts a team in the hole if their high leverage arm is consumed early.

Pomeranz (L) and Pagan are good “high leverage” options but not enough ... add two more in the Hand (L) and Rosenthal range and have four “high leverage” arms to work in some combo for every game to improve the chances of winning. Set-up with Strahm (L), Johnson, and Adams .... long / mop-up with Stammen or Hill (L).

Note: didn’t the Padres have one of the best records in MLB in the regular season ... not sure their pitching approach didn’t work until they lost Lamet / Clevinger.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on December 5, 2020, 8:07 am

I'm calling Rosenthal back to the Padres for a salary in the mid-range of the Trevor May/Taylor Rogers signings - around 6.875M for the first year and closer to 8M in the second.  Further, I think he will sign before Christmas.  He really seems to like San Diego both as a location for his family and for the composition of the team and coaches.  Given his injury history, not going to get what Hendricks or even Hand will get but this is a fair "home team" discount even though he was here for only a short time.  I think he is one who looks beyond pure dollars and would love to close behind Pomeranz, Pagan, etc.  Crossing my fingers!

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 5, 2020, 8:35 am

Sign Rosenthal....depending on interest around the league maybe sign Yates as well.

Sign Sugano(just posted).

Make a trade or two to improve the bench on the cheap.

Make Playoffs.

I guess this is my Christmas list.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 5, 2020, 9:39 am

Supply ... demand .... money should make the RP market even more hard to gauge than in the past.

1. A LOT of RP on the FA market ... and a LOT of upper level quality

2. Almost every team seems to want to improve the RP

3. Most teams want to be frugal with their spending after the 2020 losses

If teams are neutral as to which of a few RP they would sign ... do they low ball now and just wait until the demands drop?

If the teams want a specific player to they just make the bigger offer for an immediate signing but then will that player still hold for even a bigger deal taking the risk that the real big money goes elsewhere given the RP options?

Past couple of years ... some of the early signings have been the best for the players (except for the super star types). Although a number of teams have expressed a desire to add RP .. few have expressed the desire to spend big on RP then with a robust supply ... hold out until last may just not work.

Quote from fenn68 on December 5, 2020, 9:49 am

Read a CBS piece that based on Sugaro’s age / performance contrasted to other Japanese pitchers who signed with MLB ... a $56MM/4 year deal seems in the zone ($14MM) as a projected #3 starter. Then add the posting fee.

Pretty good chunk of money for the Padres .... maybe a contract that is significantly back loaded (but that may hinder trading him if he is less than hoped).

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 5, 2020, 5:18 pm

Re RP & really all FA, Padres FINALLY are a desirable destination, not just a wasteland for position players and nice weather "pitcher's park" spot for 1 yr SP injury/value sign bouncebacks!

Maybe more important this year than most.  "Bad FA market, may not get a big chunk of the 2021 salary anyway, why not go to a good team in a great weather locale".  50/50 us and.... many teams, FINALLY Padres should win out.

Quote from fenn68 on December 6, 2020, 8:57 am

Not sure how to factor this into the Padres moves ... but has to be considered to make its through 2021 without having to be “forced” into a move not wanted.

1. The current 40 man roster sits at 39 ... BUT ... only 14 position players to cover a 26 man roster need for 13. Also 3 are catchers and one (Marcano) is not near ML ready. Beyond that, unlikely a contending Padres will want Campusano, Ona, or Marcano on the 26 man. Need to add 2 position players by opening day.

2. During 2021 players will go on the IL. The 10 day does not open a 40 slot so without a rostered 40 player beyond the current optioned to call-up it will have to be one of the sent down OR DFA a player. The 60 day ... reverts to 60 day in 2021 I believe ... would open a slot ...but moving a key starter to the 60 may be a last resort given the games lost and a weak replacement.

so, when do the padres address these issues? If the adds are ML bench quality ... likely will need to offer a 40 slot for the better options at signing ... not a make good deal. Room now for one but the second (and any pitching add) will have to be offset with a DFA. (Clevinger can’t go on the 60 day IL until ST). Padres may have to make some early DFA calls in order to build the 2021 roster.

Also, Padres do have to address the non-roster players for AAA ... thin in numbers and quality for even an “add” consideration during 2021.

First have to find the players and get them signed ... but guessing Williams, Altavilla, and Guerra are sitting in the bottom of the DFA list ... all marginal RP out of minor league options.