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Off Season Thread

I don't think it is a Renfroe or Profar choice; I think it is a money choice given what is available and the needs that the Padres have to fill with an experienced bench and some additional pitching experience/depth.

Randy, that was put so perfectly.  I was just going to do a "devil's advocate"... what about Renfroe @ 2.5 MM? 2 MM? 1.5 MM?...

... at some point the 30 HR RF with the cannon arm becomes the better "value", despite the horrible OBP (can't believe I'm even making this argument!)

but that same money choice applies to Pham too.  Might have a great bounceback year & be well worth 8 MM (would have been 10-11-12 MM if he'd had a good 2020; and we probably wouldn't even consider moving on from him then).   BUT if could get Profar plus "Renfroe" (or other) for 8 MM or even less?  If can stomach the idea of Myers having to bounce between the corner OF's, might make entire team/versatility better, fill an empty roster spot, and leave same amount of offseason $ pile available for other needs.

 

At the right price ... Renfroe works / Profar works ... both coming in works.

Although there are no current open 40 man slots (but easily made) have to think there is an open position slot on the 26 man. As it stand for the four non-catcher bench options ... Mateo (INF/OF) / Allen (OF) / Garcia (INF) then ???????. Guessing if the Padres see themselves as a contender that last spot not going to Ona, Marcano, or Campusano.

Then for those who would be fine with a non-tender of Garcia (saving maybe $1.5MM) ... would argue two open slots (one probably needing to be an INF fill). A Renfroe / Profar combo would provide a major upgrade to the OF/INF bench and probably allows for keeping Allen and Mateo at league minimum while giving second tier coverage of the OF/INF.

Two other things to consider .... FA alternatives to them both while considering productivity / price (not good handle on that at this point) ... and do they want to re-sign with the Padres for a "part-time" role and within the Padres pay parameters? There is a crossover point ...let us say between Renfroe and Pillar ... they are different but both are legit options and if Renfroe is pushing his demands up while Pillar is dropping his demands ... and the Padres probably want a decision and certainty sooner than later ... the might go Pillar and get on with the winter. Neither are in that great a bargaining position and the Padres are not likely to "chase" them by offering more lucrative deals. Maybe a similar exercise between Profar and Marwin Gonzales or just a  decent 2B alternative.

With the original rumored $10MM additional ... additional from the new Clevinger deal ... maybe a non-tender of Garcia ... the DFA of Perdomo, at about $15MM to deploy?

At various points upgrades to closer (RH), veteran workhorse SP, multiple bench slots have been identified as targets. For now avoid the debate about using all the money for just one "bigger" signing ... $15MMish probably falls short of a real significant signing while leaving holes. The keep in mind the odds of a NL DH announced very "late" ... Padres currently don't have a real option as a contender and if the approval is late will there be any quality still out there (at a fair price)?

Probably the Padres could sign Yates (RH closer), Renfroe (OF/DH), Profar (super utility) all within that $15MM (with some leftover). Still have Pham for LF/DH (history suggest the better offensive option). Would "risk" the SP with Lamet, Davies, Paddack, then Lucchesi and the kids. Keep in mind, ATL did pretty well with the kids last season .

Davies and Pham FA after the season (saving around $16MM) and additional if Yates / Profar get one year deals. Renfroe remains controlled for OF as less than 6 years service. Creates some real flexibility in roster construction for 2022. That same drop due to Davies and Pham FA COULD justify pushing 2 year deals for Yates, Profar, and Renfroe considering the next wave for OF/INF/Closer is not clearly available for 2022. Might get them on a cheaper AAV in this environment for the security. Getting ahead of the issue but maybe the structure of the moves for 2021 needs to consider the 2022 needs ... for me LF post Pham is front and center.

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 26, 2020, 8:24 am

I don't think it is a Renfroe or Profar choice; I think it is a money choice given what is available and the needs that the Padres have to fill with an experienced bench and some additional pitching experience/depth.

Randy, that was put so perfectly.  I was just going to do a "devil's advocate"... what about Renfroe @ 2.5 MM? 2 MM? 1.5 MM?...

... at some point the 30 HR RF with the cannon arm becomes the better "value", despite the horrible OBP (can't believe I'm even making this argument!)

but that same money choice applies to Pham too.  Might have a great bounceback year & be well worth 8 MM (would have been 10-11-12 MM if he'd had a good 2020; and we probably wouldn't even consider moving on from him then).   BUT if could get Profar plus "Renfroe" (or other) for 8 MM or even less?  If can stomach the idea of Myers having to bounce between the corner OF's, might make entire team/versatility better, fill an empty roster spot, and leave same amount of offseason $ pile available for other needs.

 

No reason to move Wil at all.

LF is manned by Profar( your starter) and Renfroe( against lefties). Just move Profar to 1B and Hosmer to the bench when facing a left handed starter.

The Padres are 1 of 5 teams interested in Yadier Molina?

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 27, 2020, 5:37 am

The Padres are 1 of 5 teams interested in Yadier Molina?

 

Love the report that used “interested” ... is there anyone Preller is NOT interested in?

Just speculating here but good chance Preller did his due diligence call to Molina’s agent to see if he would be interested in SD and the parameters of his ask. The agent then leaks a greater number of teams “interested” to up the potential offers from STL and others.

Doubt the Padres would spend the money necessary to lure Molina (although might be a great fit with the young pitchers coming up in 2021 and a mentor for Campusano). However, spend on Molina ... don’t spend on other needs.

Timing would never work but IF Preller knows of some teams who were interested in trading for Mejia and return a piece to fill a different hole ... Molina would be both an upgrade at catcher and, indirectly upgrade somewhere else. Carrying on that unlikely daisy chain ... if the secondary upgrade is a starting LF they could then non-tender Pham and save $8MM to fund Molina?

Alternatively, if they see Mejia as the new DH coming soon / PH / back-up 1B/LF / C ... carried by his bat as a switch-hitter ... maybe utilizing him that way frees up money from other potential upgrades to fund Molina.

So, I can make up a lot of “logical’ scenarios to sign Molina .... just not likely enough to out bid STL or NYM or NYY.

That's just Molina's agent trying to drum up competition IMHO.

Quote from WindsorUK on November 26, 2020, 11:40 am
Quote from Brian Connelly on November 26, 2020, 8:24 am

I don't think it is a Renfroe or Profar choice; I think it is a money choice given what is available and the needs that the Padres have to fill with an experienced bench and some additional pitching experience/depth.

Randy, that was put so perfectly.  I was just going to do a "devil's advocate"... what about Renfroe @ 2.5 MM? 2 MM? 1.5 MM?...

... at some point the 30 HR RF with the cannon arm becomes the better "value", despite the horrible OBP (can't believe I'm even making this argument!)

but that same money choice applies to Pham too.  Might have a great bounceback year & be well worth 8 MM (would have been 10-11-12 MM if he'd had a good 2020; and we probably wouldn't even consider moving on from him then).   BUT if could get Profar plus "Renfroe" (or other) for 8 MM or even less?  If can stomach the idea of Myers having to bounce between the corner OF's, might make entire team/versatility better, fill an empty roster spot, and leave same amount of offseason $ pile available for other needs.

 

No reason to move Wil at all.

LF is manned by Profar( your starter) and Renfroe( against lefties). Just move Profar to 1B and Hosmer to the bench when facing a left handed starter.

I don't know about Renfroe in LF.  He COULD play it; not Ryan Klesko out there, but seems like Renfroe-RF, Myers-LF would make way more sense.   But I agree with the rest.

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 27, 2020, 5:37 am

The Padres are 1 of 5 teams interested in Yadier Molina?

 

Sign me up!   With the extremely young staff & still learning Nola?!  Yes.  If Chris Paddack is too stubborn to take advice from Molina, he should immediately be traded.  This would probably make Nola your best (offensive) option at 1B & 2B  vs LHP.   Adding Molina & freeing up Nola like this would decrease the chance/need of a Profar return.

Everyone is giving up on Mejia who was an even more highly rated prospect than Campusano is now (without a felony conviction!).  Last season was simply a lost "year" (month+) for him b/c of the injury, like it was for Pham.  He just needs to play.  The perception is that he's "beyond" AAA, but he's really not; he's yo-yo'ed up/down, and the Indians did hurt his development at C by moving him around.

A signing like this would let Mejia & Campusano BEST develop by playing every day in AAA & AA (assuming he's not suspended, which he may be) every day.  But can't see a 2 year deal given where Nola/Mejia/Campusano development arcs are; even I don't think Campusano needs 2 years...

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 27, 2020, 9:58 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on November 27, 2020, 5:37 am

The Padres are 1 of 5 teams interested in Yadier Molina?

 

Sign me up!   With the extremely young staff & still learning Nola?!  Yes.  If Chris Paddack is too stubborn to take advice from Molina, he should immediately be traded.  This would probably make Nola your best (offensive) option at 1B & 2B  vs LHP.   Adding Molina & freeing up Nola like this would decrease the chance/need of a Profar return.

Everyone is giving up on Mejia who was an even more highly rated prospect than Campusano is now (without a felony conviction!).  Last season was simply a lost "year" (month+) for him b/c of the injury, like it was for Pham.  He just needs to play.  The perception is that he's "beyond" AAA, but he's really not; he's yo-yo'ed up/down, and the Indians did hurt his development at C by moving him around.

A signing like this would let Mejia & Campusano BEST develop by playing every day in AAA & AA (assuming he's not suspended, which he may be) every day.  But can't see a 2 year deal given where Nola/Mejia/Campusano development arcs are; even I don't think Campusano needs 2 years...

MLBTR has Molina potentially getting $10MM/1 year. IF the Padres have something under $15MM to deploy ... does not leave much for RH closer/bench upgrade/veteran innings eater. Can the Padres really contend over a 162 game slate with Molina and the current roster?