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Off Season Thread

Think you are right ... even if he signs a one year contract .... the signing team will control him until he hits the 6 year mark via arbitration.

 no idea how an arbitrator would interpret that in subsequent arbs ... looking at his numbers vs. “market”.

Well, guys prior earnings are increasingly a factor in subsequent earnings, no matter how well they do.  That's why I asked.

In other words, if Nunez ends up getting paid for ex. 1.5 MM for 2021, the 3.0 MM he was "projected" to earn becomes pretty irrelevant... going into his 2nd year (as a Super 2 for him) of arb, it would be an increase from 1.5 MM... not 3 MM.

Looks like Covid might be undercutting the pillar of "HR = getting paid in arb".... Renfroe, now Nunez.

Sort of depends on the arbitrator’s approach. A lot depends on the comps of performance used to defend the team’s number and player’s number .... arbitration will take one or the other. So no real assurance a low current salary will diminish the arbitration number approved ... especially if the club “low balls” their number.

 

Heard a discussion that the pendulum may be swinging back to bat to ball and OBP in valuing hitters.

With hitters going all in on the HR / K strategy ... pitchers are getting better at the K side of the equation and with the shifting on defense the advantage to actually winning games is diminishing. Going with the opposite approach becomes more successful since the opposition is less structured to defend it.

So the thesis was that contact / OBP will be the new trend and will frustrate the pitchers who have not been “pitching” but just blowing FB past those upper cut swings and expose those fielders who are playing because of their bats but can’t field and will result in more base runners.

Seems the Padres are already moving in that direction with a much greater focus on contact and moving on from the Renfroe / Hedges types. Might support the original idea of adding Pham for Renfroe even with the extra cost.

You mean we might see a return of some sort of the Wee Willie Keeler "Hit em where they ain't" approach ?

The over shift has exposed how lacking hitting skill are now days....all or nothing Dave Kingman Style.

Who is the top FA this year ?........................DJ LaMahue and he is a pure hitter -....foul line to foul line, Teams cannot play a shift on him because he will burn the shift.....his stroke is left center, center, right center. I sure hope he stays in New York because he was a Padre Killer with Colorado

No claim or trade for Renfroe, so he's also a FA.  So his 2021 salary will be < 3.5 MM....  rough season, but small sample, 1st time in AL, and apparently worst in MLB luck with BABIP...   still, a lot of it stems from the all or nothing approach.  If your baseline OBP is not acceptable, any bad luck & it falls off a cliff.

Joins the cumulative effect on the market.  Who would you rather have?  Profar or Renfroe.  Almost everyone would say Profar for versatility, etc...   but now, who would you rather have:  Profar > 5 MM or Renfroe </= 3 MM...    hmmm....

Also found the official release of Renfroe on Fangraphs, so now all the speculation can commence.  As was stated by several of us previously, Renfroe would not replace Myers in the line-up but rather Hosmer (who is awful against LH pitchers) or possibly Grisham in rarer circumstances when Grisham needs to come out.  Myers could fill in occasionally at 1b or CF ands Renfroe could also play CF; if Pham is out, then you have either Myers or Renfroe in LF.  Renfroe would not be an everyday player but certainly would be a better option to have as a part-time player and on the bench than Allen, Ona or Mateo (as an OF), particularly if his salary is 1/2 or less than Profar.

There are a lot of hurdles for Renfroe to even consider re-signing with San Diego and I say the odds are against it happening, however, it could be a viable option and as I indicated before it would probably take at least a 2-year contract with 2021 being the year to prove himself and 2022 being a club option year at probably 2-3 times the 2021 salary if Renfroe gets to his 2018 levels, which are acceptable with the current lineup around him.  This all anticipates the development of Abrams and the eventual departure of Pham and possibly Myers.  We all hope that Myers plays like he did in 2021 so that he's wrapped up through 2023 but that is also an unlikely possibility given past performance.   If not, Padres probably go the FA route in 2022 to fill out the OF around Grisham and Abrams while waiting for the next level of OF's to develop, whether it is Hassell, Head, Caissie or someone out of the blue like Mena.

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 25, 2020, 2:50 pm

No claim or trade for Renfroe, so he's also a FA.  So his 2021 salary will be < 3.5 MM....  rough season, but small sample, 1st time in AL, and apparently worst in MLB luck with BABIP...   still, a lot of it stems from the all or nothing approach.  If your baseline OBP is not acceptable, any bad luck & it falls off a cliff.

Joins the cumulative effect on the market.  Who would you rather have?  Profar or Renfroe.  Almost everyone would say Profar for versatility, etc...   but now, who would you rather have:  Profar > 5 MM or Renfroe </= 3 MM...    hmmm....

Profar at the higher pay since he is a better all around hitter (and a switch hitter) and can back-up LF-CF-RF-3B-SS-2B (big plus) - 1B without moving everyone else around to accommodate Renfroe entering the line-up and still no  legit option for INF bench. Seven bench players and a L/R PH all in one player .... that will allow the other 3 bench players to be structured for specialization and / or just league minimum options.

It would be nice to be able to afford Profar but his solid finish makes that difficult, if we assume limited resources that must be spent on other areas.  Profar can play a number of positions but he can't play them all at once.  You must have a longer bench that is adaptable to unforeseen circumstances.  Besides, Profar's salary in 2020 was supposed to be 5.7M so why would he take any less than 7M and want to be an everyday player?  This may be his last chance for a big contract that covers at least 3 years and ends up being around 27M; that's probably what he's looking for.  Would you pay that for a part-time bench player when you also need some starting pitching and possibly another high leverage relief pitcher?

Preller gambled on Profar and was loudly roasted for that trade when Profar got off to a very slow start.  To me, Profar is still a gamble as an infield sub when so many of those players are available at a much lower price in free agency for a shorter term.  I'm a big Profar fan but not a 7M plus for over 3 years - track record/injury history = not that reliable.  I don't think it is a Renfroe or Profar choice; I think it is a money choice given what is available and the needs that the Padres have to fill with an experienced bench and some additional pitching experience/depth.

 

 

Although on record as not being a fan of Lucchesi's long term value ... he may just be a factor for 2021 ... at least a bench mark to determine the value of a "veteran" FA signing.

Lucchesi is only 27, LHP, at league minimum, and with 4 more control years.

In 2018 had 26 starts (130 innings): 4.08 ERA/1.29 WHIP. In 2019 had 30 starts (163.2 innings): 4.18 ERA / 1.22 WHIP. Not great BUT:

  1. with the current staff, the Padres will need someone who can pitch every start and 5-6 innings in at least one of the supporting SP slots if you believe the "kids" are not ready to take full workloads
  2. in 2020, if you projected innings of SP, there would have been only 81 who worked 125 innings (less than 3 per team) and Lucchesi's numbers would have put him around #53 ... basically a decent reliable workhorse.

So as the Padres look at options for a veteran workhouse ... and pay for that ... shouldn't they use Lucchesi's production at league minimum cost as the standard that any FA has to improve upon to get a greater than minimum salary?

Money saved on a back-end veteran can be used to upgrade ??????/

Quote from Randy Manese on November 25, 2020, 5:58 pm

It would be nice to be able to afford Profar but his solid finish makes that difficult, if we assume limited resources that must be spent on other areas.  Profar can play a number of positions but he can't play them all at once.  You must have a longer bench that is adaptable to unforeseen circumstances.  Besides, Profar's salary in 2020 was supposed to be 5.7M so why would he take any less than 7M and want to be an everyday player?  This may be his last chance for a big contract that covers at least 3 years and ends up being around 27M; that's probably what he's looking for.  Would you pay that for a part-time bench player when you also need some starting pitching and possibly another high leverage relief pitcher?

Preller gambled on Profar and was loudly roasted for that trade when Profar got off to a very slow start.  To me, Profar is still a gamble as an infield sub when so many of those players are available at a much lower price in free agency for a shorter term.  I'm a big Profar fan but not a 7M plus for over 3 years - track record/injury history = not that reliable.  I don't think it is a Renfroe or Profar choice; I think it is a money choice given what is available and the needs that the Padres have to fill with an experienced bench and some additional pitching experience/depth.

 

 

Would not assume Profar gets a multi-year deal in this environment ... no matter what he wants. Also, have my doubts about the $7MM. If he holds out for that he will have a long long summer. Except for the top tier FA ... hard to see many (if any) multi-year deals.

Think MLBTR had Profar pegged at 1 year / $7MM.

Role that idea over to Renfroe ... no chance on a multi-year offer given the completion out there with similar skill set focusing on RHH platoon power. Maybe a 1 year ... low base ... incentives for 2021 and he remains controlled I believe in 2022-23 since he has not hit the 6 year mark.

Most teams are going to be very tight with their money ... not good for any of these mid / lower end FA (except maybe for some pitchers).