Quote from fenn68 on February 15, 2021, 8:47 am

Dennis Lin

1h

Keone Kela and the Padres are in agreement on a major-league deal, pending a physical, sources tell

@Ken_Rosenthal

and me. Kela joins Mark Melancon as the second former Pirates closer added in the last few days.

================

Not sure on the rules here as to how long the Padres can delay making these deals official (has to be some rules set down between the owners and the union) and at what point in ST players (Wingenter / Clevinger) can be put on the 60 day IL to make roster space (day 1 the 18th or later in ST).

Might see some DFA/trade action if they can't play the delay game.

Quote from Ben Davey on February 15, 2021, 8:53 am

Probably?  Haha, not counting injuries I dont see very many spots up for grabs.

Rotation is pretty much set with Lamet, Yu, Snell, Musgrove, Paddack (though I hope Gore or Morejon can outpitch Paddack in ST).

8 man starting offense (assuming Cro starts) with Kim (9), Profar (10), O'Grady (11), Caratini (12), Mateo (13).  Could make the argument that either Campusano or Ona make the team over Mateo or that they go with 12 position players.  Note: O'Grady is a lock unless the Padres get another CF as Profar/Mateo/Ona are NOT CF.

Only ? are in the pen, but even then I agree that there has to be a trade or the outright release of Stammen.  Williams MIGHT slip through waivers.  Altavilla and Guerra would get claimed in a second.

Quote from BoosterSD on February 15, 2021, 9:11 am

Quote from fenn68 on February 15, 2021, 8:36 am

Leaving the option for a 14 man staff using that extra arm either as a 6th starter or a long man spot starter. That may actually favor Morejon as another LHP with minor league options.

RP probably will be the most contested role.

From what I thought I have read, is that SD wants Gore, Weathers, Morejon, and Baez all being stretched out to become starters, and all really need more time in the MiLs. So IMO, all these guys are now out of contention for Bull Pen roles, unless injury/performance dictate otherwise.

Quote from BoosterSD on February 15, 2021, 9:17 am

Quote from Ben Davey on February 15, 2021, 8:53 am

Probably?  Haha, not counting injuries I dont see very many spots up for grabs.

Rotation is pretty much set with Lamet, Yu, Snell, Musgrove, Paddack (though I hope Gore or Morejon can outpitch Paddack in ST).

8 man starting offense (assuming Cro starts) with Kim (9), Profar (10), O'Grady (11), Caratini (12), Mateo (13).  Could make the argument that either Campusano or Ona make the team over Mateo or that they go with 12 position players.  Note: O'Grady is a lock unless the Padres get another CF as Profar/Mateo/Ona are NOT CF.

Only ? are in the pen, but even then I agree that there has to be a trade or the outright release of Stammen.  Williams MIGHT slip through waivers.  Altavilla and Guerra would get claimed in a second.

With all the experience in Darvish and Snell, do really see Lamet as the #1 starter, Opening Day guy?

I think it would be a shame to start either Campusano or Ona on the bench in SD to start the season. IMO, they both need more time in the MiLs. I do think that SD starts the season with a 12 man position player list, and 14 pitchers. 5 "Starters" and one guy that may get a pop start/opener of a bullpen day (Strahm probably) depending on the schedule and the work load on the 5 starters. IMO, this season it is going to be vital to limit the regular season workload of Darvish, Snell, Lamet, Musgrove, Paddack so they have bullets left for the post season.

And I still think that you will see some minor "calf strains" through out the season, where Darvish, Snell, and Lamet have 10-14 days of rehab, that will get covered by a combo of Weathers, Morejon, and Baez. With Gore getting called up, once and for good, if Paddack struggles.

Quote from fenn68 on February 15, 2021, 9:19 am

Quote from BoosterSD on February 15, 2021, 9:11 am

Quote from fenn68 on February 15, 2021, 8:36 am

Leaving the option for a 14 man staff using that extra arm either as a 6th starter or a long man spot starter. That may actually favor Morejon as another LHP with minor league options.

RP probably will be the most contested role.

From what I thought I have read, is that SD wants Gore, Weathers, Morejon, and Baez all being stretched out to become starters, and all really need more time in the MiLs. So IMO, all these guys are now out of contention for Bull Pen roles, unless injury/performance dictate otherwise.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on February 15, 2021, 9:11 am

Quote from fenn68 on February 15, 2021, 8:36 am

Leaving the option for a 14 man staff using that extra arm either as a 6th starter or a long man spot starter. That may actually favor Morejon as another LHP with minor league options.

RP probably will be the most contested role.

From what I thought I have read, is that SD wants Gore, Weathers, Morejon, and Baez all being stretched out to become starters, and all really need more time in the MiLs. So IMO, all these guys are now out of contention for Bull Pen roles, unless injury/performance dictate otherwise.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on February 15, 2021, 9:11 am

Quote from fenn68 on February 15, 2021, 8:36 am

Leaving the option for a 14 man staff using that extra arm either as a 6th starter or a long man spot starter. That may actually favor Morejon as another LHP with minor league options.

RP probably will be the most contested role.

From what I thought I have read, is that SD wants Gore, Weathers, Morejon, and Baez all being stretched out to become starters, and all really need more time in the MiLs. So IMO, all these guys are now out of contention for Bull Pen roles, unless injury/performance dictate otherwise.

Heard the same on those four but hedging a bit on Morejon ONLY IF the Padres choose to go with 14 pitchers AND have a plan for extensive use of a 6th (spot) SP. Might achieve that with strategic all ups but none of the other RP candidates seem reasonable options for starting roles even on a spot basis.

Quote from fenn68 on February 15, 2021, 9:46 am

Just convincing myself that 14 pitchers / 12 position players is beginning to make the most sense for the 2021 Padres.

1. With Kim, Profar, Caratini on the bench ... Profar / Caratini switch hitters ... have the entire field covered and flexible PH options. That should ease the issue of dropping one of O'Grady and Mateo ... and since O'Grady can be optioned to the minors likely him (can be recalled if needed). Mateo (out of options at least can in a short fill handle INF and OF while being a PR threat ... remember man on 2nd in 10th inning).
2. Consensus around baseball is that it will be the rare pitcher that goes 150 innings (most less) ... needing either a highly used 6th pitcher or 5 pitchers with shorter starts and heavy bullpen usage. Either way at 13 pitchers without a lot of minor league option flexibility is not enough and probably using IL stints (justified or not) might be more disruptive to the rhythm of the pitchers than just going with the extra arm to start.

A couple of debate points that may set the logic for the pitching plan:

1. Padres will want their top of the rotation pieces at peak performance for the playoffs in OCT ... probably available on shorter than 5 rest days.
2. Padres will want to start the season winning to set the tone for the season (unless they are very confident that the 162 games is enough to offset a slower start).

So, are they better off starting the season with 6 starters ... more slowly building the top of the rotation arms (and saving innings) then transition to 5 starters maybe in Aug/Sep to get them ready for the playoffs?

At least all teams have this innings issue ... and at least the Padres have depth in arm well beyond most to shuffle players for injuries / rest.

Side: could be a VERY good year for hitters ... especially later in the season ... as pitchers just wear down, get injured and the replacements up from the minors just are not ML quality. Should be a very misleading stat year in 2021.

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 15, 2021, 10:12 am

What about the "taxi" squads for road trips?

Can these be players without options or do they have to be on minor league rosters in order to travel?

Could guys like Guerra/Altavilla be stashed on this squad or do waivers still need to be passed?

I'm guessing they can't be so its gonna be interesting how the Pen plays out.

Let's hope injuries aren't a concern first of all but it sure seems like AJ has been proactive just in case.

 

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 15, 2021, 11:03 am

I LOVE feeling uber-deep at:  SP, (now) RP, INF esp SS/2B...

Do not feel that way about C and OF, especially CF.   Right now it's: 3 starters, Profar, the "Jake/Kim" experiment, and 3 prospects in the OF.  This makes team way too reliant on Trent Grisham, and by default Brian O'Grady.

I realize it's unlikely, but signing Kevin Pillar here would be a coup, and create a very deep team without an obvious flaw.  On a 4-man bench, Pillar would get significant playing time in CF & RF, pushing O'Grady to AAA as great depth.  Why not (if you're Pillar) try to win a World Series, rebuild your value on a 1 year deal heading into new CBA, and push Grisham-who has only played 3 months of MLB ball-for playing time?  Signing Pillar would be very similar to signing Kim to push or perhaps beat out Jake despite his great rookie year.

From Pads POV:  1)  See where $ comes in on M.M. & Kela... likely 2 for 1 still less $ upfront than Rosenthal

1A)  Do they now look to unlock the Stammen contract with say Baez in Trade?  "Cancelling" some of the $ spent but still deeper at RP

2)  Even if no Stammen trade, is there $ anyway b/c made an offer to Sugano, and were interested in Tanaka (presumably <10 MM AAV offered to each).

 

Quote from BoosterSD on February 15, 2021, 11:32 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 15, 2021, 11:03 am

I realize it's unlikely, but signing Kevin Pillar here would be a coup, and create a very deep team without an obvious flaw.  On a 4-man bench, Pillar would get significant playing time in CF & RF, pushing O'Grady to AAA as great depth.  Why not (if you're Pillar) try to win a World Series, rebuild your value on a 1 year deal heading into new CBA, and push Grisham-who has only played 3 months of MLB ball-for playing time?  Signing Pillar would be very similar to signing Kim to push or perhaps beat out Jake despite his great rookie year.

This has been my thought all along. WE ARE a WS contending team, and Pillar could do worse IMO. However, as Fenn will state. Do most ML players want to have a smaller part in winning a WS, or do they want to play as much as possible, even if it means no post season?

Thats the rub!!

I personally see, if Pillar was to sign, plenty of playing time for two reasons. One, Pham's health. I know we have Profar for back up, but he is also the first option at all other positions, and probably not as good defensively as Pillar in the OF. Two, Grisham. I know he won the GG in CF last season, however it was only 3 months of play, and if he gets hurt, who do we trot out in CF for 3-4 weeks if its an oblique?? Profar?? O'Grady?? I would feel a lot better with Pillar being able to take CF or even LF in case of a longer injury, and still have Profar in the wings for rest for the balance of the other starters.