Quote from fenn68 on February 11, 2021, 1:36 pm

Half listening to an interview with D.Lin .... think I heard him IMPLY that the Padres may be close to adding a “mid-level” RP ... not sure via FA or trade.

Also, did not seem optimistic about a reunion with Rosenthal ... did note that as a Scott Boras client not being signed at this point is not surprising and reflects Boras’ lack of willingness to come down from the ask .... which he IMPLIED may be sitting around $12MM per year.

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Quote from MrPadre19 on February 11, 2021, 3:04 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 11, 2021, 8:48 am

Quote from fenn68 on February 10, 2021, 12:30 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 10, 2021, 12:15 pm

Yes it's worriesome that his hitting has gotten worse even after reaching the PCL.

But,with his speed and still only 25 if the issue is known(can't hit the curve/adjust to fastball etc) maybe they feel they can still improve him.

He's worth holding on to but is he worth giving a 26 man spot too just for his speed at this point.

 

It is the 26 man roster slot on a team trying to win a championship. If they were the “old” Padres losing 90+ games a season might keep him for development gamble .... but in 2021 have to go with better options. OAK chose to move on last year ... and they had him for a number of years to evaluate his development arc.

I expect the same debate will surface on Guerra in a crowded pen at the end of ST.

 

I'm well aware of Mateo's long minors career shortcomings as a hitter.  Just think it's pointless to try to parse that small of an MLB sample into an all encompassing stat.

I've said for a long time that both Mateo & Guerra would be better fits on a "2nd tier" rebuilding team where they get more opportunity to play & that team can afford them some patience.  I consider both of them to still be prospects (limited MLB PLAYING time), so might trade them for lower level non roster prospects.

It's easy to forget not only was last year only a 60 game season where 1 pinch running appearance could make or break the season, but teams started with a 30-man active roster.  I thought acquiring Mateo for that situation was pretty savvy.

162 game season with a 26-man roster and no DH is something else entirely.  Can't see using a guy strictly as a PR in NL; especially if going with a "short"4-man bench (extra P).   BUT Mateo's being out of options combined with the lack of true CF depth seems like it's "protecting" him for now...  Even if O'Grady is better, do we keep him in MLB to not play much & risk losing Mateo on waivers?  Just depletes depth further.

Think removing P limit & 4-man bench possibility both help Guerra's chances, but don't guarantee anything.

I have a feeling trading a couple guys out of options may be what happens before the season starts.

Let ST get started and see where we stand but it’s going to be very important to be able to shuffle pitchers in and out of S.D. this season.

I could very well see a trade of Mateo/Guerra for one BP arm or a non 40 man prospect.

Do we want Guerra and Mateo to continue trying to “figure it out” while on a WS contender?

Managing the bullpen and having the right number of the right kind of player will be critical this season.A Reliever with no options can’t also be an unknown quantity(Guerra).

It may take him  another year or two to become dependable....unfortunately that may have to happen elsewhere.

 

Quote from fenn68 on February 11, 2021, 4:28 pm

Has to be a question as to who and when they choose to move the out of option RP. On one hand want to see who is healthy and throwing well before making the call ... I guess.

However, just can’t really tell what the Padres really think of the potential of any of them to helping in 2021 ,,, or as important is there any significant difference among them for 2021. If that is the case, IF they can get a good offer ... maybe they just pull the trigger on a deal (or include one in a bigger deal).

Agree that the Padres in a 162 game schedule need some flexibility for call-ups and downs. The only RHRP with options is Pagan and he is likely the RH closer. Maybe the go short on LHRP (Hill/Castillo have options) but does throw the balance in the pen a bit out of sync. That might open up the 14 man pitching staff with the 14th being a player who can be optioned (Morejon? Weathers?) and/or used as the 6th SP as needed. Maybe we see a “surprise” 14th arm out of the prospects (Thompson, Knehr, Wilson?)

So, one strategy is to go with the best of the out of options candidates (DFA / trade the others) then expect to DFA some of the others if needed if a fresh call up is needed.

The worry about SP innings has to also extend to RP ... all teams are going to have to do some creative innings management for all the pitchers ... and out of option arms create a problem.

Quote from 3fingersplit on February 11, 2021, 4:34 pm

I don't know why but if Rosenthal is not going to factor in......his loss in my opinion but more on that later...I just have a feeling that keeping Guerra would be the right call for a couple of reasons.....this kid is a really good athlete both mentally and from a physical standpoint. To go from playing SS and trying to generate enough bat to warrant a spot on the roster...this guy transitioned to the mound and has shown flashes of what he could be.....great arm and surprising composure on the hill for a former infielder. He could absolutely be this years break through story and a typical AJ Preller gut feel type of move.....don't have to spend a pile of money as he is already under contract and if it worked.....genius move

Even though we have plenty of solid guys to fill in around the infield / outfield, this is a guy that could play any number of positions and if called upon to take a AB he already has a clue as a hitter albeit one with little success coming up the ranks....like I said...just this weird gut feel hunch.....I always like that one guy that overcomes and adapts and has his day or season in the sun

Would love to hear any thoughts....or not

The other thing about this website.....I don't know if you all can see the "thumbs up or thumbs down" icon but I think I'm going to start using them as my way of agreeing with a post.....not a big fan of a thumbs down so I won't use that even if somebody makes a post after one too many beers or shots and post gibberish....like after the Padres got in the playoffs....I know I had a shot of Tequila that day 🙂

Quote from fenn68 on February 11, 2021, 4:44 pm

A one off question ... with what seems to be a growing consensus that (with very few exceptions) max innings out of SP should peak at about 150 after considering the limited workload in 2020. (Should note although some may physically pitch more the real question is will the maintain effectiveness ... arms will tire or get injured).

So, what formula works best for pitchers (and for success of the team):

Option 1: 5 SP going 5 innings per start = 150 innings per SP

Option 2: 6 SP going 6 innings per start = 150 innings per SP

Option 1 wears down the pen quicker covering 4 innings vs. 3 innings per game (33% increase) ... probably requires a lot of RP change outs

Option 2 saves the pen some but requires the 6th best SP handling about 26 starts vs the #1-5 SP.

Might depend by team based on the mix / quality of the staffs ... but going to be an issue for everyone. I am beginning to lean (for the Padres) the 6 man rotation since think the candidates for the 6 SP can be more productive than whomever becomes the 6th inning guys to support a 5 man rotation.

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 11, 2021, 4:59 pm

Don’t think you need me to chime in on the 6 man rotation idea.

I’m all for it.

Would work this year and especially next year.

2020....Darvish-Lamet-Snell-Musgrove-Paddack-Morejon

2021.....Darvish-Lamet-Snell-Clevinger-Mushrove-Gore

If everyone stays healthy we’re gonna need to trade a  couple guys...ie:Morejon,Paddack,Baez.

Still have Weathers and Lawson in case of injury.

 

Quote from fenn68 on February 11, 2021, 5:01 pm

Quote from 3fingersplit on February 11, 2021, 4:34 pm

I don't know why but if Rosenthal is not going to factor in......his loss in my opinion but more on that later...I just have a feeling that keeping Guerra would be the right call for a couple of reasons.....this kid is a really good athlete both mentally and from a physical standpoint. To go from playing SS and trying to generate enough bat to warrant a spot on the roster...this guy transitioned to the mound and has shown flashes of what he could be.....great arm and surprising composure on the hill for a former infielder. He could absolutely be this years break through story and a typical AJ Preller gut feel type of move.....don't have to spend a pile of money as he is already under contract and if it worked.....genius move

Even though we have plenty of solid guys to fill in around the infield / outfield, this is a guy that could play any number of positions and if called upon to take a AB he already has a clue as a hitter albeit one with little success coming up the ranks....like I said...just this weird gut feel hunch.....I always like that one guy that overcomes and adapts and has his day or season in the sun

Would love to hear any thoughts....or not

The other thing about this website.....I don't know if you all can see the "thumbs up or thumbs down" icon but I think I'm going to start using them as my way of agreeing with a post.....not a big fan of a thumbs down so I won't use that even if somebody makes a post after one too many beers or shots and post gibberish....like after the Padres got in the playoffs....I know I had a shot of Tequila that day 🙂

I think Guerra’s survival (and I agree he has a chance) is dependent on the use of 14 pitchers at the expense of Mateo. Guerra could provide that deep insurance as a SS/2B and PR while still providing back of the pen support.

Everyone says Guerra has great stuff ... so his versatility may justify working with him into 2021 to see if he blossoms. With luck ... he becomes more than a pitcher for blowout and non-critical appearances which does have value of “resting” the other RP.

As in my other post ... with the innings load concern ... harder to envision him on a 13 man staff.

Quote from fenn68 on February 11, 2021, 5:11 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 11, 2021, 4:59 pm

Don’t think you need me to chime in on the 6 man rotation idea.

I’m all for it.

Would work this year and especially next year.

2020....Darvish-Lamet-Snell-Musgrove-Paddack-Morejon

2021.....Darvish-Lamet-Snell-Clevinger-Mushrove-Gore

If everyone stays healthy we’re gonna need to trade a  couple guys...ie:Morejon,Paddack,Baez.

Still have Weathers and Lawson in case of injury.

 

Sort of agree on 2021.

2022 might be dependent on how everyone does in 2021 but might see:

1. Some of the arms filling the pen (Paddack, Morejon, Clevinger) bumping some of the low hanging fruit ... and keeps starters in house as the presumptive 2022 starters begin to go FA in 2023 (Clevinger, Musgrove).

2. A more aggressive strategy may come if the younger SP options really look good in 2021 and trading a Musgrove / Clevinger heading into their last season or, even more aggressive, dealing Lamet or Snell or Darvish with only 2 years control. Maybe a big deal option for the 2022 replacement for Pham and to fill the DH need (2 adds needed).

We need to see 2021 to make the call on the best strategic direction going forward.

Quote from BoosterSD on February 11, 2021, 5:31 pm

Quote from 3fingersplit on February 11, 2021, 4:34 pm

I don't know why but if Rosenthal is not going to factor in......his loss in my opinion but more on that later...I just have a feeling that keeping Guerra would be the right call for a couple of reasons.....this kid is a really good athlete both mentally and from a physical standpoint. To go from playing SS and trying to generate enough bat to warrant a spot on the roster...this guy transitioned to the mound and has shown flashes of what he could be.....great arm and surprising composure on the hill for a former infielder. He could absolutely be this years break through story and a typical AJ Preller gut feel type of move.....don't have to spend a pile of money as he is already under contract and if it worked.....genius move

Even though we have plenty of solid guys to fill in around the infield / outfield, this is a guy that could play any number of positions and if called upon to take a AB he already has a clue as a hitter albeit one with little success coming up the ranks....like I said...just this weird gut feel hunch.....I always like that one guy that overcomes and adapts and has his day or season in the sun

Would love to hear any thoughts....or not

The other thing about this website.....I don't know if you all can see the "thumbs up or thumbs down" icon but I think I'm going to start using them as my way of agreeing with a post.....not a big fan of a thumbs down so I won't use that even if somebody makes a post after one too many beers or shots and post gibberish....like after the Padres got in the playoffs....I know I had a shot of Tequila that day

I agree, somehow letting this guy leave as a DFA or included in a prospect trade feels wrong. Sometimes I am guilty of not looking at numbers, and using more of the eye test, and something just feels right when he is on the mound.