Quote from MrPadre19 on April 5, 2022, 5:46 am

Meadows is a low Avg,low OBP type power hitter.

I'm just guessing AJ did not hold his value very high.....or,he has other things still in the works?

Conforto?

Mets trade?

Trade for someone we aren't even considering....Bos,Det also could use an arm...as could other contenders if AJ is making Paddack/Weathers/Pagan and others available

Quote from Jeremy Hill on April 5, 2022, 7:16 am

I'm a little surprised at the return, but I think Paredes is a better prospect than we are giving him credit for. He has good minor league numbers with a great walk rate. He's still only 23 and has just barely over a year of service time. He was a back half top 100 type in some publications not too long ago. He hasn't even cracked 200 major league ABs yet. He's been good against lefties in his limited opportunities against them at the big league level. Mostly though it's that I tend to give the Rays the benefit of the doubt in these situations.

I also think we may have been overvaluing Meadows. He's an average fielder and he's not very good against lefties. I would have loved to have him, but it seems likely he wasn't as valued around the league as fans thought.

Quote from MrPadre19 on April 5, 2022, 7:22 am

Meadows had a .563 OPS against LH pitching last year and .871 against RH........AJ knows this and is looking for help against Lefties.

 

Quote from fenn68 on April 5, 2022, 7:22 am

If Preller stops trying to include Homser in every deal … something might get done.

Just pure math with the number of pitchers should make one (or more) available … have to debate who. Most teams want (need) pitching … both SP and RP. That should be the basis of a deal.

Since most of us seem to think an upgrade from Profar / Beaty in LF is warranted … have to gauge who may be available that is an upgrade (at least one that can be relied upon as an upgrade) at at what price.

Alternatively, with the rapid development (potentially) of Abrams and the strong ST for Kim … believing Tatis will return in July … could it be the Preller does not want to go overboard on a deal “knowing” mid-season Tatis goes to SS … Kim goes to the reserve INF … Abrams takes over an OF role? If he sees that as the future … he may value the pitching depth given the 2021 experience.

The counter to that is they can fall out of the playoff run early with poor offensive contribution out of LF while sitting pitching depth on the bench / AAA.

A trade based on Smith - Paddack with the METS seems beneficial to both. METS want someone to add to the SP now … Paddack fits (3 years control, low cost, experience). SD wants a stable offensive OF now … Smith fits (3 years control, a bit more costly than Paddack but still low, experience). Both seem destined to be bench options in their current situation.

Not sure they are valued vs each other, so hard to make a call on if other minor pieces are needed (one way or the other) to balance the values. Guessing the argument is that Paddack (being a SP at the lower cost) has greater trade value than Smith … especially after seeing what Meadows got traded for.

Quote from dusty on April 5, 2022, 8:38 am

Quote from fenn68 on April 5, 2022, 5:27 am

Quote from dusty on April 5, 2022, 3:37 am

While I too am surprised that is all it took to get meadows, I think you guys are really undervaluing that comp pick. Not to mention for the padres, they have a comp A pick. So we are talking an end of the first round type of player for Meadows such as James Wood or Robert Gasser if we compare it to who the Padres picked up last year. Only this year think 30 or so picks higher than those two.

Agree that we tend to undervalue both the draft picks and top prospects versus what seems to be the current theme across all MLB. Teams seem to have moved to placing more value on the low cost future of prospects than the short term (higher cost) of most currently players.

However in this case … Meadows is 27 … 3 years control … and in 2022 “only” $4MM. Has been rated as one of the better LF offensively in MLB by some media. Just hard to balance that with the successful bid being a Comp B pick (somewhere in the high 60s) and a 23 year old “marginal” prospect. That Comp B pick is a not really a high probability of major success and maybe 3-4 years out.

Padres aside, one would think that any team wanting to win now would find value in Meadows for LF/RF/DH … and offer more than DET did. No one did.

I guess I am focusing on how Meadows if being valued by clubs (including TB) …

Comp B may not be a high probability of success, but it still carries significant value and in this year's draft it is 70 or 71 as the Rays now own both of those picks (per fangraphs, in 2019 they value it as around $3.8 million). But, you have to figure the Padres did not have a Comp B pick to trade, they actually have a Comp A pick - significantly more valuable. This year it is the 39th overall pick which according to fangraphs is slightly more than double the value of the comp b selection (7.8 mil). Yes, the draft is a crap shoot but there is still significant value there.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-on-how-to-value-draft-picks/

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on April 5, 2022, 9:42 am

We agree that the draft picks hold significant trade value to all MLB teams even with the risk ... same can be said of all major prospects. However, to make a trade have to match value for value (however each team defines that).

Clearly in this case the trade value of Meadows was not enough to warrant a Comp A (or significant prospect) from the Padres. Not a great fan of Meadows' overall game ... so not upset there was no deal.

Side: the pure analytical front offices may have their algorithms of value for value ... and make trades within those guidelines but it can be detrimental to winning now (when there is a legit shot) by passing on a deal that has short term value over long term value.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on April 5, 2022, 1:15 pm

Abrams is playing RF right now.

Quote from MrPadre19 on April 5, 2022, 1:22 pm

That's weird?

Last Spring Training game and they decide to give him 4 innings in RF?

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on April 5, 2022, 1:25 pm

Per Hector Gomez the Padres are talking to the Guardians about Jose Ramirez!

Huh?

Would be a great get but.....another infielder?