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Off Season Moves and discussion
#71 · October 30, 2021, 6:26 pm
Although it sounds desirable to move Myers and Hosmer contracts ... the Padres have been trying for years without success. The other teams are not all that interested to pick up much of their contacts and if they did the would want some quality prospects as part of the deal. Padres don't have a lot of prospects in the upper minors that are all that appealing and dealing what they have will set up a death spiral in a couple of years.
Also, if they move Myers or Hosmer that just opens another need for a bat on top of the two they likely already need and have probably used up their prospect trade chips. I would say least likely to move is Myers given his contract is over in after 2022 (sort of solves itself) while he is versatile and about an "average" hitter. If they have to eat half of his contract and give up a prospect ... low chance they can sign even an equivalent player for $10MM / 1 season. Odds are probably also low on Hosmer given his much bigger deal will be even harder to sell although the Padres may be more motivated to clear the 4 year commitment but still would have to eat a major portion of the deal and offer a better prospect package.
The new manager and the new pitching coach are veterans of low payroll teams and were successful in getting the most out of what they had to work with .... expect that will be the approach for the Padres in 2022 without major adds but a set of potential low cost / over achievers targeted to fill the holes. IF the Padres are in the thick of the playoff run ... I would expect the 2022 trade deadline to be more aggressive this time around.
Add a couple of legit veteran ML bats and a couple of legit veteran ML RP to fill the current holes and they are already pushing the payroll up $15-20MM above an already high base for just "good" not the "very good".
Melvin has to get the current players to play to their best history ... if they don't not sure adding big will get the desired result. Plus could be the next Pham or Hosmer as easily as being a positive impact.
#72 · October 30, 2021, 11:11 pm
While we cannot expect to sign a Qualified Free Agent, there may be some valuable pieces out there. For example, what about Mark Canha? Been with the A's for years and probably has a great relationship with Melvin. Nothing fancy about him but probably very reliable and has earned the trust of Melvin.
Melvin hasn't had too many top shelf rookies to work with during his time in Oakland, so agree that he needs to get better performances out of Grisham, Nola, Kim and Profar as he has with others in the past. I expect pretty much the same performances from the others but if those four can be utilized more efficiently and we can add someone like Canha, we probably have enough to be very competitive offensively. It will be interesting to see who the hitting coach is since typical Oakland teams did not have high average hitters but did show a lot of power and decent on-base percentage.
The strength of the Oakland teams have been the pitching staffs. Hoping that Melvin and Niebla continue to find bring out the best in a pitching staff as well as add some key staff members for the needed depth both at SP and RP. Not sure who the closer will be, but I'm not opposed to trying out either Lamet or Paddack in that role, provided both are healthy enough to give it a shot. Lamet and Paddack are basically two pitch pitchers but that other pitch beyond the 96-98 mph FB, a slider and change-up, respectively, can be very good.
#73 · October 31, 2021, 4:35 am
2021 may rely on pitching health of some very talented (and previously successful) arms.
SP 1-4 lines up to be Snell (L)), Darvish, Musgrove, and Clevinger ... that could be an elite rotation.
SP 5 then sorts Lamet, Paddack, Weathers (L) as the frontrunners with Gore (L), Martinez, and Knehr making a push. Given the quality of 1-4 and the reality of #5 starters in MLB ... Padres should have one of the best #5 SP in MLB out of that mix. Whomever does not secure #5 could make a strong contribution in the pen.
The pen ... especially late innings (closer) will be the challenge without Melancon. However, (again if healthy) Pomeranz is back and was viewed as the end of game RP going into 2021 ... but need more. We can dream that the new pitching coach can harness Adams command ... if so he is almost impossible to hit. The middle innings candidates are deep and decent. (side: Melvin has the reputation of knowing how to keep his pen "fresh" ... wonder if that suggests he will try to keep a few RP with minor league options to create a rotation with EP).
I am not sure about Lamet's future ... certainly cannot rely on his performance as either a SP or a RP given health issues ... his career has not been that of a workhorse. Expected to get about $4.5MM in arbitration and only controlled for 2022-23 ... might he be non-tendered to clear some payroll to use on filling the OF holes or just a more reliable RP?
#74 · October 31, 2021, 4:56 am
LF/DH need to be addressed if as it stands they go with Nola/Caratini, Hosmer, Cronenworth, Machado, Grisham, and Myers at the other positions.
Would expect Frazier to fill one of those slots (albeit the DH should be a rotational position for everyone). That leaves one opening for a bat in the starting 9 (plus some quality off the bench). Profar and Kim seem more the rotational bench options ... then just a big hole for ML quality.
Would have hoped Abrams was healthy and had a successful winter ... but alas no and most likely will be getting reps in AAA to start the season. That only leaves Campusano internally as a potential piece (3rd catcher / DH / 1B) ... and he finished 2021 in AAA hitting very well ... but a big risk to rely on him as a team that plans to contend. However, both could be legit mid-season call-ups to cover injuries, depth, or under performances.
Sure looking as though adding a quality OF bat may be priority #1. Padres could go two ways ... maybe depends on the options available and the changes in the CBA ... but considering Myers and Frazier are FA after 2020 (Abrams and Campusano step up?) that still leaves an OF need. So, could stretch payroll on someone on a multi-year deal or could go in on someone one year planning to readdress the hole next winter (no idea who will be the FA next winter).
#75 · October 31, 2021, 5:56 am
The Mark Canha idea has a lot of merit given the FA available ... not likely to get a QO from OAK given he only made $6.9MM and a good chance he would take it ... and OAK really can't afford that.
Will be 33 .. so not likely to command a big long term deal ... RHH who can play LF and CF (sub in for Grisham as needed) but not a good fielder. Have to assume Melvin likes him ... made him a regular and was an above average bat (115 wRC+) ... hopefully Canha likes Melvin and wants to play for a contender.
Given his age and made only $6.9MM in 2021 .... a 2 year deal (? $10MM/yr) keeping him around in 2023 post-Myers. The 2 year commitment may be the key.
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Eliminating the likely QO FA ... not much in my mind except for LHH Corey Dickerson and LHH Eddie Rosario both lesser hitters ... Canha may be the best option as a FA.
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Should not that Preller (except for Machado and Hosmer) seems to prefer to add via trade ... not FA ... for key players. However, not sure he has the trade chips (at least the ones he would be willing to trade).
#76 · October 31, 2021, 2:35 pm
Put me down for Jorge Soler.
Especially if we have the DH.
Who else available has 40 HR potential who may also be affordable?
Sign a starter like Stroman or Wiley.
A LF/DH like Soler or Conforto……and then pray for player health.
I’m not as worried about the BP when we have guys like Lamet,Weathers,Paddack who may not make the rotation.
But if Kela is healthy I’d like to bring him back….how much is our option?
Maybe sign a guy like Graveman,Knebel,Neris or Hand.
#77 · November 2, 2021, 4:42 pm
AJ Cassavel's article was informative today but he totally missed by his statement that the Padres don't have any must adds to protect on their 40 man prior to November 19. Gore and Martinez are must adds, while Brandon Valenzuela is not too far behind that in key players in key positions that teams desire. There may be one or two more possibilities but these three are no-brainers!
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LynchMob
#78 · November 2, 2021, 6:18 pm
Saw the Cassavel piece and just scratched my head on that no must add comment. Maybe he has a different definition of “must” than most of us … if he does not mind losing a prospect then no one is ever a “must”.
Agree on Gore, Martinez, and Valenzuela being protected with a good chance of both Gore and Martinez contributing on the ML level in 2022 at some point … probably more than some of the last names on the 40.
The other candidate … maybe not a must but a high chance … is AAA RP Wilson. Padres need bullpen support (especially with minor league options) … he is very good … and as a AAA RP with a good record a slam dunk to be selected in Rule 5 and kept.
Couple of prospect I really like but whether they get protected is up in the air depending on who has to get bumped from the 40 and the Padres evaluation whether they would actually get selected and kept.
#79 · November 2, 2021, 6:33 pm
The other … for me … head scratcher is his lack of any thought of adding a bat unless they move Myers and/or Hosmer.
As the roster is developing the Padres will be having Frazier and Profar both in the starting line-up as LF and DH with Caratini and Kim on the bench. That seems short of playoff quality and allows little wiggle room for injuries and coverage for rest / slumps in a 162 game slate. Plus two open bench slots since betting on two of Campusano, Ona, and Abrams being ML ready to start 2022.
Not sure Cassavel is getting any insight from the Padres or just winging it without much analysis. Padres (Preller) rarely tips his hand … so believing a Padres’ source seems risky. Being a writer for MLB.com probably comes with some limitations on what he can speculate and report but sure does not seem he is into his job.
#80 · November 3, 2021, 6:57 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on October 31, 2021, 2:35 pmPut me down for Jorge Soler.
Especially if we have the DH.
Who else available has 40 HR potential who may also be affordable?
Sign a starter like Stroman or Wiley.
A LF/DH like Soler or Conforto……and then pray for player health.
I’m not as worried about the BP when we have guys like Lamet,Weathers,Paddack who may not make the rotation.
But if Kela is healthy I’d like to bring him back….how much is our option?
Maybe sign a guy like Graveman,Knebel,Neris or Hand.
Well....winning WS MVP has given him some more negotiating power.
Still should be one of the more affordable Big Bats* on the market.