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Off Season Moves and discussion
#61 · October 29, 2021, 11:55 pm
Surprised by the early release (outrighted to El Paso) of Miguel Diaz. Thought he might have a chance to compete for a bullpen spot given his past history with the team, but obviously Padres didn't see any further future with the 27 year old. The other 4 players outrighted (Camarena, I Castillo, O'Grady and Rivas) were not surprises and, because Diaz would have to be carried on a 40-man, no other team apparently had enough interest in him to even offer a very low level prospect. All could continue with El Paso in 2022 but most likely all will declare for free agency.
Still need to clear 7-10 more spots to account for all the players currently on the 60 day IL and to open up some room on the 40 man for those to be protected from Rule 5 and possible trade acquisitions; don't expect the Padres will add anyone via Rule 5 at the major league level. Some of these decisions will be fairly easy, like Kela and Marisnick, while others like, Strahm and Ona, may be a little tougher to make. A lot of injured and aging arms, so expect almost all of the remaining necessary moves to involve the pitching staff.
#62 · October 30, 2021, 5:54 am
Some key dates:
1 day after the World Series eligible players can declare FA
5 days after the World Series eligible players actually become FA and can sign with other teams
Nov 19th ... roster needs to be set for Rule 5. So, gives about 2 weeks to decide post FA to deal with the 60 day IL, DFA/releases, adds for protection ... maybe some window for trades or waiver claims.
Dec 1st ... non-tender deadline for Arb eligible players. Most likely the non-tenders will be released prior to setting the roster for Rule 5 on Nov 19th.
Dec 2nd ... CBA expires and we enter the twilight zone for what may happen.
Some speculation that the Winter Meetings might be suspended (as with the Rule 5 draft) ... player transactions may be suspended (basically a lockout) until the new CBA. Given all the unknowns concerning the elements of the new CBA ... actually makes some sense. Hard to value a player without knowing the control period (new rules on FA timing), issues on pay, and any team payroll limits (max with enhance penalties and/or minimums).
#63 · October 30, 2021, 6:08 am
Some interesting OWNER's proposals for the new CBA (all received negatively by the UNION ... as proposed).
- Proposal to change the 6 year rule to achieve FA to an age based threshold ... Owners at 29 1/2. Union may like the concept but will want a younger age ... 27? ... to ensure the young mega stars get the big contracts.
- Proposal to alter the arbitration rules ... not sure the detail but apparently giving some high performers earlier access to arbitration vs. league minimum
- Proposal to LOWER luxury tax threshold (and increase penalties for violation) coupled with a payroll minimum. No idea how the transition timeframe would work. Can see how ... if approved in any form ... will impact the decisions of both high and low payroll teams.
- Plus a long list of other important (but may less of concern to the fans) that have to be dealt with.
No idea what will survive to the new CBA ... but can see that until the rules are finalized making any player decisions will be risky.
#64 · October 30, 2021, 10:57 am
I think the roster is at 46 after the releases. Getting down initially t0 40 should come from losing the 4 FA (Pham, Detwiler, Hudson, Velasquez) and 2 “mutual options” that one side will decline (Melancon, Marisnick).
That will give two more weeks to figure who is DFA/released/traded to make room for the players to protect from Rule 5 … and a fair number of “easy” choices … Padres may make their moves for removing players early and wait to do the adds. Not much point on waiting on Kela and the like.
#65 · October 30, 2021, 11:57 am
What would it cost to get Starling Marte?
A’s got him to make a run in 21’.
If they’re rebuilding he isn’t a future piece…..I would do a back flip if he was our Leftfielder next year.
#66 · October 30, 2021, 12:15 pm
Marte would be great but the cost may be a problem as a FA coming off a good year at $12.5MM and likely to be saddled with a qualified offer. So beyond the multi-year deal the Padres would need to get a 33 year old they also get penalized draft picks and international signing money for having exceeded the luxury tax (as I understand).
#67 · October 30, 2021, 3:22 pm
Ugh!
Forgot he was a free agent.Thought they controlled him one more year.
#68 · October 30, 2021, 3:25 pm
Five players get outrighted today, including SD folklore hero Camerena. Along with Camerena, Diaz, Rivas, OGrady, and Castillo.
I think the only one that had real potential was Miguel Diaz, but could not harness the walks.
#69 · October 30, 2021, 4:15 pm
I read where the Padres did not exceed the luxury tax this year, so they should be good heading into 2022; however, they must get their payroll down if they want to add any quality to their offense, deal with the impending free agents that are Clevinger and Musgrove in 2022, and shoulder the increases in salaries on current contracts and those that will be raised by arbitration. The new CBA might impact what they might do with FA possibilities as well as moving one of the albatross contracts they have for Hosmer and Myers for 2022. Currently, the penalties beyond solely dollars don't come into play until after the 2nd year of going over the luxury tax and by a significant percentage, i.e., 40% over. Their max competitive window seems to be open for 2-3 more years so they might do something that is unexpected to get into World Series contention.
#70 · October 30, 2021, 5:35 pm
Although not penalized due to the luxury tax per se ... per MLBTradeRumors about a week ago:
Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Dodgers, Padres
If either of these teams signs a qualified free agent from another team, it must forfeit its second-highest and fifth-highest pick in the 2022 draft. The team will also have its international signing bonus pool reduced by $1MM. Both teams could plausibly sign a qualified free agent, though the Dodgers have significantly more payroll space.
Given that most premium FA will be offered (and decline) the qualified offer (about $18.5 MM) would expect they see something at the level for multiple years. Hard to see the Padres make that contract commitment and incur those penalties for just one FA when they more than likely need two hitters and need to booster the bullpen.