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Off Season Moves and discussion

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Quote from fenn68 on March 19, 2022, 6:46 am

Now with Correa off the board … Story apparently has BOST, NYY, TEX, HOU, and SF “interested”. Story now seems willing to sign a “shorter / higher AAV” deal and “temporarily” move off SS. How might his choice impact the Padres?

First, let us hope he does not sign with SF … SF has the money but a top SS in Crawford so a position shift would be in play and maybe not a short term proposition. Add that with LAD / SD in the NL West … maybe tough to make the playoffs

Houston may be desperate without Correa … so could play SS and Houston should have enough money since he would cost less than they were offering Correa. Probably no benefit to SD except in the AL (as are the remaining options).

NYY may benefit SD the most … now they have defensive oriented Kiner-Falefa ticketed for SS and Story on a shorter term deal could really elevate their chances for the playoffs  … they have money. How could that benefit SD … the NYY also NEED a catcher … Padres have excess catching and need a veteran back-up (or starting) SS until Tatis returns. Solution: Caratini for Kiner-Falefa … 2 years control and I think a push on Caratini’s pay. That move would let Profar remain super utility / platoon LF.

If we do this it only pushes Kim to the bench with a platoon for LF. Are you counting on Tatis moving to the OF when he returns?

Quote from fenn68 on March 19, 2022, 4:16 am

Given Tatis … Kim starting … should Preller be on the phone seeking a back-up INF? As it is Profar is the 26 man roster INF back-up and not sure that is optimal .. especially if he is also the platoon LF. 3 months is a long run without having Kim, Cronenworth, and even Machado to not need games off for minor aches and pains.

Dont forget that Nola can play anywhere on the INF, came up as a SS. and according to an interview with Mattingly, was pretty good.

There's no way the Yankees are trading Kiner-Falefa for Caratini. They didn't just take on Donaldson's contract to get him just to turn around and trade him for a backup catcher. Even if they were to sign Story that's ridiculous.

I'll throw this out there though. I do wonder if the Twins would consider trading Luis Arraez for pitching with Correa in the fold. He doesn't have much power, but he's a great contact and on base guy who can play 2B, 3B, and LF. Could be nice insurance if Kim hasn't improved enough offensively.

I guess we see Kiner-Falefa differently. A very good fielder and average bat. Texas was going to use him as a super utility guy until they traded him to MINN for Garver (C). MINN trades him to NYY with Donaldson (big contract dump) for Urshela and Sanchez (C) and basically creating their own hole at SS (until they signed Correa).

So IF Story goes to the NYY ... Kiner-Falefa goes to the bench (a bench that is going to have a problem fitting in even LaMahieu. On the other hand, they have very bad catching. It does them no good to keep Kiner-Falefa IF they can use him to upgrade catcher. (side: if Caratini is not enough then add a RP (or a minor prospect) which they could use at the back end of the pen) but there are not a lot of veteran catchers on the market and Caratini is one of the better available. Basically with Story ... Kiner-Falefa is deep benched ... and if he is not playing he has little value for what may be his $5MM salary.

From the Padres perspective ... have now 3 months with Kim at SS and no back-up INF. Kiner-Falefa would be the super utility for injury to Machado - Kim - Cronenworth with ML chops and if Kim does not improve offensively he takes on SS full-time. Tatis is the SS when (if) he returns. Let Preller then make the call on Kim vs Kiner-Falefa and trade out one. Lack of ML INF quality can do a lot in 3 months to damage playoff aspirations.

So, like Kiner-Falefa for what he is ... and what he is a very good piece for the roster but a cornerstone.

Since I am in the trade a catcher mode... and Caratini is my victim ... how about Cleveland? Caratini's low cost plus his offense vs. the incumbents fits them. As of now the #1 is Hedges and the #2 is pretty unknown.

Now a different spin on the return ... a middle INF ML ready prospect for back up at low cost and longer control. Actually Cleveland has a number of options for that role in the ML/AAA plus their starting SS/2B is fine.

To that end, I present two former Padres ... Owen Miller who spent on on the 26 man last year and the model of a scrappy back-up ... or the uber defensive but "developing" offense of Gabe Arias who has made it to AAA. Guardians would still have two "better" middle INF prospects in AAA for the future.

Miller could be a clear direct swap and maybe need to add a RP on the Arias idea. When Tatis returns ... they can be optioned to AAA.

I like Kiner-Falefa but not at 5M and I agree with Jeremy that the Yankees won't take Caratini for him.  Wasn't Arias supposed to be the key piece in the Clevinger trade...and now he's like the 3rd middle infielder on the Guardian's prospect list per Baseball America.  I like what I've seen of Arias' growth offensively and if we can get him back for cheap, he might be more ready now than Eguy or Abrams, although the latter is a far better prospect.  Miller had a less than 50 wRC+ in about the same number of plate appearances as Kim, so I'd be more hesitant to count on him as a productive bench piece.

 

I would say you're greatly overvaluing Caratini. He's a passable bat and glove for a catcher. There's value in that, but it's not bringing back Kiner-Falefa or Arias. If the Yankees were really looking to upgrade at catcher they could just put Kiner-Falefa back there and be better off than they would be with Caratini. Kiner-Falefa came up as a catcher.

Cleveland isn't going to trade a top 100 prospect in Arias for him without something else significant going back. The truth is we're unlikely to get anything of real value back for Caratini. Given his connection to Darvish he probably has more value to us than anywhere else. Maybe he could be moved as part of a bigger deal, but on his own he's not going to bring back much. Honestly though unless they really want to keep Alfaro I don't think he's going anywhere.

Note that Melvin has said he intends Darvish to throw to other catchers … not just Caratini. Add that some of the local reports that “several” teams have interest in Caratini. Put those two together and a good chance he gets moved.

Agree that he by himself would not get a real good return but have to consider the depth of bad catchers in MLB and he would be a significant upgrade as some team’s #2. Likely would package him with X to get a useful near term asset. If they opt to reduce the catchers and save $2-3MM he could yield a decent low A prospect.

Maybe trying to link two issues into one solution … Padres cannot go the next three months with no legit back-up middle INF and Abrams is only up as a starter (but not ready) and Profar maybe be the LF and for now the only back-up OF.  There will be injuries in the INF/OF that need coverage.

At the same time, with the DH in place with Voit and no really PH need, Padres need a bench that can play the in the field … can’t justify Nola, Alfaro, Caratini, and Voit on the 26 man roster. If they kept all four … added non-roster Mazara for LF … the Padres only have Profar as super-utility and a slot for a PTNL.

So trying to push the need for a legit back-up middle INF (at least for 3 months) against an overstock of catchers.

Side: don’t buy the Nola in the INF …maybe for a game in an emergency but not for any extended run … there was a reason he moved out of the INF years ago but more importantly he is the #1 catcher and the best defensive one building a working relationship with the pitchers … have him in the INF downgrades two positions … not ideal for a contender.

Soler to the Marlins.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on March 19, 2022, 4:54 pm

Soler to the Marlins.

3 years / $36MM with opt outs. That still seems like an overpay … especially if he does not opt out …

We down to Conforto and Story as the last big name FA? Story will find a nice home with a nice contract … Conforto? However think he is a Boras client and he can be very creative and usually comes out fine. Clock is ticking.

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