Quote from sportwarrior on March 16, 2022, 8:42 pm

Quote from fenn68 on March 16, 2022, 8:30 pm

This has to be hard for both Preller and Siedler. Clearly they built to win in 2022-23 but the current roster is not quite there. Then throw in the LAD who will be very very hard to unseat as Division winner. So the route to the playoffs is slots 4-6 after the three division winners … and that will not be easy given the perceived strength of Mets / Braves, Brewers / Cards, and SF … getting the 6th spot will be a challenge then advancing will be questionable against some really strong pitching staffs.

One route to improve the odds of 2022-23 is going all in with the remaining FA (commit big money) and make aggressive trades using top prospects. Are there sufficient quality players available to add? Downside Padres have FA at the end of 2022 that includes Myers, Mazara, Clevinger, Musgrove, Stammen, Johnson with Hosmer, Suarez, and Martinez able to opt out … and they will have to be replaced … if they can find replacements or re-signed … for more money or with even dealing more prospects.

After 2023 FA are Darvish, Snell, Profar, Alfaro, Caratini … same replacement issue.

Basically the entire presumed SP in 2022 will be FA after two years putting 2024 in danger of collapse. Don’t see enough internal options to support a contender. Plus there will be a need for a lot of position player replacements again without a lot of internal options beyond Campusano - Abrams - Hassell (unless they are trade for upgrades now).

Conclusion is that a the Padres run a real risk of not making the playoffs in 2022-23 even with available adds (at the cost of prospects / spending big money) and that could lead to a 2024 team looking like those 90 loss clubs of recent history.

The other route (maybe out of the Padres’ control) is to ride as far as they can with basically this roster (fringe short term upgrades like Soler) and wait to see where they stand mid-season as Tatis returns … if legit contenders make mid-season trades to upgrade and if not in contention maybe need to start jettisoning players with high cost / short term value and start inserting the prospects. Basically shift to preserving credibility for 2024 and beyond.

We are at the point that the remaining FA are not enough to really fill the holes needed to really contend for the playoffs … and although we speculate about trades that benefit SD … the other teams don’t have to cooperate.

No a good spot for the Padres now or in the future.

 

 

If nothing happens, we should be seriously considering a soft reset at the deadline. Extend Musgrove, trade the rest of the staff, promote some kids... Most importantly, be direct and honest with the clubhouse. Preller and his FO have, by most accounts, been absolutely terrible at communicating with their players. Reset that relationship, reset expectations for 2023-2025, and keep momentum flowing in the right direction.

Otherwise, as fenn said, we're are in deep, deep trouble.

Quote from fenn68 on March 16, 2022, 8:47 pm

I have my doubts … even with including an elite prospect(s) … any team would take either Hosmer’s or Myers’ full contract … maybe 50% and does that clear enough cap space?

Plus as much as I like Freeman would he be enough of an offensive boost over Hosmer to carry Kim, Profar, and Mazara offensively. Probably not enough to make the Padres a playoff contender.

I wouldn’t under-estimate the drag of having 1/3 of the starting line-up being really poor offensively and no bench.

Quote from sportwarrior on March 16, 2022, 8:54 pm

Quote from fenn68 on March 16, 2022, 8:47 pm

I have my doubts … even with including an elite prospect(s) … any team would take either Hosmer’s or Myers’ full contract … maybe 50% and does that clear enough cap space?

Plus as much as I like Freeman would he be enough of an offensive boost over Hosmer to carry Kim, Profar, and Mazara offensively. Probably not enough to make the Padres a playoff contender.

I wouldn’t under-estimate the drag of having 1/3 of the starting line-up being really poor offensively and no bench.

They can't get just one bat. Plan A was Cruz + Suzuki. They failed to sign both. Now they have to make the tougher choice and get a DH along with a major offensive upgrade at a corner while probably losing prospects to clear up cap space to do it.

But they have to do it. They don't have an option here. If they don't, and we roll into the season with this offense, we absolutely should plan for a mid season sell off.

I am absolutely shocked and dismayed they have failed so, so miserably and completely the last 6 months. I didn't think I could ever be angrier than I was at the trade deadline, but tonight I'm getting there.

Quote from sportwarrior on March 16, 2022, 9:17 pm

Whelp, 6/162. That's it. No combination of Castellanos/Conforto/Soler is going to make up for this.

I hope Preller knows what a failure he's been.

Quote from sportwarrior on March 16, 2022, 10:43 pm

Sign Trevor Story for SS. Castellanos in LF. When Tatis comes back, slot him in the OF and move Castellanos to DH. Pick up. Also clone Ted Williams.

Quote from 3fingersplit on March 16, 2022, 11:00 pm

Freddy Freeman to the Dodgers.....6 years....162 million

https://www.mlb.com/news/freddie-freeman-dodgers-deal

This whole thing went off the rails last year when the front office let it be known they were trying very hard to trade Hosmer and then they went out and got Frazier for only God knows.....The players were pissed because Hosmer is a team leader and even though he didn't have the power numbers everybody wanted...the guy was a team leader and players got a serious jolt of reality about baseball is a business and then the whole Frazier thing....that was a disaster and just further ruined any chemistry these guys had.....Now this year it's the same thing.....Hosmer and Meyers are the reason this team fails and with Tatis out for 3 months and not able to sign anybody that matters to plug holes..... they already have a built in excuse.

I'm just hoping for a 82 win season......500 or better would be great but I'm guessing......77 wins this year

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on March 17, 2022, 4:09 am

OK, time for me to step away from the ledge and spin positive on the Padres chances for the playoffs with this roster (and minor tweaks).

First the Padres are still well positioned to finish with a record to qualify for the playoffs … primarily due to an excellent and deep SP rotation with legit insurance arms. Remember that the key is the number of wins and those #3 - 4 - 5 SP will do a lot to add wins (way better than most teams). COLO and AZ should be fodder for gain wins and a good chance that SF falls from an overachieving 2021. Outside the Division, there are probably 4 elite teams but after that the other teams lack depth and also should provide a source of wins. Don’t focus on the LAD (that may cause a knee jerk reaction … and bad moves). So Darvish - Snell - Musgrove - Clevinger - Martinez - Paddack - Weathers - Gore provided a superior base for wining.

The pen is likely a lot better than it is getting credit for … at least compared to others and it is the failing in other teams’ pens that should be noted. Lamet, Suarez (very good in Japan), Pomeranz, Johnson, Hill, Adams, Garcia, even Pagan and Stammen provide a long pen and a lot of hope for being bolstered by Kerr, Wilson, Kopps, Castillo. For most teams once they get past their “headline” RP the back end is much weaker than the Padres.

So, pitching as it is will put the Padres in the playoff hunt by delivering wins and being effective in every game.

Offense is not deep (and an issue until Tatis returns) but Machado, Cronenworth, Hosmer, Nola, Grisham, and Myers puts six slots that should deliver “average” offense and create a base to support the superior pitching. (Think a lot of low scoring games).

Now the three other slots (and bench) are well below average offensively … but the same can be said about the teams below those top 5ish. So, those teams still provide fodder for wins. Again it is about wins to get to the playoffs and not style points.

So, what do the Padres do … given what has happened in the FA market … to enhance the projected win total and tread water until Tatis returns?

1. Live with Kim’s defense at SS … enhances the effectiveness of the pitching … and need to find out if in regular playing time in his second season deliver better offense to maybe the .250 level.

2. Don’t panic and don’t sign Conforto / Castallanos long term with an overpay … don’t see them as good as being billed …

3. Attempt to sign a short term / medium cost bat (Soler) for DH or trade for someone line Voit who should come for very little in trade assets since NYY were trying to move him before signing Rizzo. Remember they are just trying to upgrade from having to rely on Mazara - Profar - Alfaro in the LF/DH slots and lengthen the line-up.

4. The second bat … should be a legit OF who can play in the field and be an average hitter at a minimum … is the trade challenge. If they go and get a Soler / Voit type for DH, that is a commitment of less than $10MM … so deploy a bit more payroll and could trade for a veteran on a non-contender with a short term control but some salary … that for a mid-range prospect … essentially the opposite of trying to trade Myers / Hosmer and take some salary for a serviceable player.

Make those two minor moves and the starting line-up is deeper / stronger and the bench with Profar - Mazara - Alfaro also deeper and stronger. Should be improved enough to support wins with this pitching staff.

Let those moves get them to the trade deadline and reevaluate once Tatis is back and were they stand in the playoff hunt. Also, may be able to evaluate whether Campusano and Abrams are ready to contribute as elite prospects … maybe as DH / LF upgrades.

Pitching will get them to the playoffs with only some minimal upgrades to LF/DH/bench and focusing on short term moves without tapping into the top prospects allows for greater flexibility at the trade deadline and developing a competitive  2023 roster.

Don’t panic and don’t get obsessed with the LAD … keep grounded on the teams that are the competition for a playoff slot … once in the playoffs anything can happen is short series and quality pitching.

Quote from MrPadre19 on March 17, 2022, 6:10 am

To be honest we shouldn't sign any bat that doesn't improve our offense against LH pitching.

Last year Soler hit 12 HR's against lefties in just 168 AB's.

Depending his cost I'd be OK with him at DH....he has the ability to break out again...just in 2019 he had 49 HR's.

Castellanos has very good numbers against lefties although may be inflated by the Parks he's played in.

 

Quote from fenn68 on March 17, 2022, 7:08 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on March 17, 2022, 6:10 am

To be honest we shouldn't sign any bat that doesn't improve our offense against LH pitching.

Last year Soler hit 12 HR's against lefties in just 168 AB's.

Depending his cost I'd be OK with him at DH....he has the ability to break out again...just in 2019 he had 49 HR's.

Castellanos has very good numbers against lefties although may be inflated by the Parks he's played in.

 

Yeh, I am warming up to Soler given the alternatives vs the need. Since he is still out there … maybe $10MM per year on a 2 year deal (the need will be there in 2023 with the departure of Myers).

That should keep the Padres under to luxury tax level for now.

I think Castellanos is over valued at the presumed signing price and the length of commitment plus never eager to sign a QO player (and lose a draft pick) unless the players is a lock star … don’t think Castellanos is that. Same with Conforto.

=====

Side, not suggesting stardom, but strategic use of LHH Mazara might surprise. Ignore his time with DET/CWS (2020-21) … he was in the 90s wRC+ in Texas with power and strong vs. RHP. He is only 26. LHH power would be what we were looking for to complement Machado - Tatis - Myers. Maybe the Padres can get a RHH platoon complement for LF … should be lower cost acquisition … and together LF might become at least average offensively and maybe better.

Not sure Soler in LF is a good idea but beggars can’t be choosers.