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Off Season Moves and discussion
#31 · October 6, 2021, 12:13 pm
Quote from LynchMob on October 6, 2021, 11:44 amQuote from fenn68 on October 6, 2021, 9:50 amIF they added Stroman to Darvish, Snell, Musgrove, Paddack, Clevinger, Lamet, Weathers, Gore, Martinez .... 10 arms for the 5 SP slots plus 5 for "insurance" .... that is a lot.
Would think if they see Stroman as upper rotation (he is) ... Darvish / Snell / Lamet are controlled through 2023 ... and if they plan to extend Musgrove ... may not need the all of the other depth ... could they be on the block? Gore and Weathers should be good trade bait.
Question: you've got Martinez on the list ... but not Avila ... they seem equivalent at this point to me ... thoughts?
And ... is the prognosis for Lamet such that we can/should expect him to be in the 2022 rotation? Or more likely a (good) bullpen piece?
Martinez ahead of Avila just based on 2021 with Martinez more effective as a SP while Avila was more a combo SP/RP. Both 24. Probably should have also included Knehr since he is #9 on the Padres top prospect list and the Padres exposed him to MLB in 2021.
Lamet is a pure wild card with him ending up a SP or a RP or on the IL "Hopefully" a full winter and a proper build up in ST allow him to start since in 2020 he got CY Young votes over the course of the regular season. If that does not work ... to the pen ... but although he has the stuff not sure we know he is end of the game RP yet or another Adams.
#32 · October 6, 2021, 12:32 pm
I think Preller will move Hosmer this winter .... even if he as to do more than he want to. First, a number of rumors that inside the Padres' front office they are really not pleased with Hosmer (beyond the on field pay) ... just rumor mind you. Second is more a business reason ... if he finishes 2022 with the Padres and does not opt out .... he gains 10/5 rights to veto any trade (that would make a subsequent deal much more difficult),
Option A: just eat most of the 2022 salary and toss in a mid-level prospect for no return. Buying team takes the risk on 2023-25
Option B:Eat a smaller portion of the 2022 salary and add a major prospect (e.g. Campusano) for no return.
Option C: (the nuclear option) ... DFA and eat the whole salary to get him off the roster (unlikely)
All three just increase the need for more hitters and with "dead money" targeted for Hosmer ... at best ... $10MM to allocate from Hosmer with a need for a LF and DH.
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Long shot guess: Hosmer and Campusano to Miami. Miami has come out indicating they will be looking for a catcher and with the NL DH they have a home for Hosmer (who goes back to his hometown). Padres pick up $10MM of Hosmer's salary in 2022.
#33 · October 6, 2021, 12:51 pm
It is official: Tingler fired and offered another position within the organization.
Time to move on to his replacement ... Ron Washington is currently the betting favorite.
#34 · October 6, 2021, 1:17 pm
BOCHY BOCHY BOCHY ! I know it's not likely but if he took them to the world series and won he would have to be considered one of the greatest managers ever.
#35 · October 7, 2021, 6:46 am
I'm really reluctant to move Campusano.
Nola is fine but off injured. Caratini is solid- in spurts. It would be nice to see Campusano take the job during ST.
Valenzuala is still, what, 3 or 4 years out? We can't leave C open that long hoping Nola stays healthy/ Caratini gets better.
Luis is a top prospect. This organization DESPERATELY needs one of its heralded prospects to deliver( other than Tatis).
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#36 · October 7, 2021, 6:54 am
Quote from 84padres on October 6, 2021, 1:17 pmBOCHY BOCHY BOCHY ! I know it's not likely but if he took them to the world series and won he would have to be considered one of the greatest managers ever.
Can anyone see Preller allowing any manager in here other than a yes man? Both Green and Tingler were nothing more than management mouth pieces in the dugout.
Ceding ANY authority to a veteran manager would be equivalent of Preller saying " We need someone smarter than me in the dugout". I'm not sure I see that happening.
Don't get me wrong! We definitely need someone in the dugout who gets respect from the vets. I'm just not convinced AJ is willing to do what is best for the on field team( I think he's more interested in pusuing his own agenda)
#37 · October 7, 2021, 8:27 am
Quote from WindsorUK on October 7, 2021, 6:54 amQuote from 84padres on October 6, 2021, 1:17 pmBOCHY BOCHY BOCHY ! I know it's not likely but if he took them to the world series and won he would have to be considered one of the greatest managers ever.
Can anyone see Preller allowing any manager in here other than a yes man? Both Green and Tingler were nothing more than management mouth pieces in the dugout.
Ceding ANY authority to a veteran manager would be equivalent of Preller saying " We need someone smarter than me in the dugout". I'm not sure I see that happening.
Don't get me wrong! We definitely need someone in the dugout who gets respect from the vets. I'm just not convinced AJ is willing to do what is best for the on field team( I think he's more interested in pusuing his own agenda)
I would not see that as solely a Preller issue. Whether it is in baseball or in business no “boss” is looking to hire an employee that will be in conflict with the business plan and defy management.
There is a big difference between the stereotype of a “yes man” (one who has no independent views) and a employee that has similar view as the boss but will debate (not argue and defy) points that are in contention.
The front office has a philosophy on how to build and operate a successful team and that needs everyone on the same philosophical page … maybe not the detail of each move but the curbs to stay within.
Would add that Siedler fully backs Preller’s plan … so Preller is not on an island … and frankly not necessarily that different than most of the new age front office strategies in MLB.
#38 · October 7, 2021, 8:45 am
Quote from WindsorUK on October 7, 2021, 6:46 amI'm really reluctant to move Campusano.
Nola is fine but off injured. Caratini is solid- in spurts. It would be nice to see Campusano take the job during ST.
Valenzuala is still, what, 3 or 4 years out? We can't leave C open that long hoping Nola stays healthy/ Caratini gets better.
Luis is a top prospect. This organization DESPERATELY needs one of its heralded prospects to deliver( other than Tatis).
Sort of a game of issues and probabilities. Probably would not want to trade Campusano of the reasons you outlined … same thing can be argued about trading away pitching given the injuries of 2021 … both “insurance” policies are desirable.
However, if contending in 2022 is the goal, and the probable starting line-up has Hosmer as DH and Profar the starting LF with a bench of defensive no offense Kim and Marisnick (if they pick up his option) is … at best … sub optimal.
For good or bad, the Padres are constructed for winning in 2022-3 then will have to scramble. 2024 will not have Caratini, Hosmer (hopefully), Frazier, Myers, Profar, Musgrove, Clevinger, Darvish, Snell, Lamet, Pomeranz … with a depleted farm system at the upper levels who will be ready (and impactful) in 2024. Of course, should be a lot of payroll space to sign under performing FA. Too few assets for too many needs.
#39 · October 7, 2021, 8:46 am
Pencil in Valenzuela in for 2024 as Caratini’s replacement.
#40 · October 7, 2021, 9:02 am
If SD is really looking for additional starting pitching, does anyone else thinks its a good idea for both SD and Zach Davies to get together again?
Mind you it was only 65 games, and many players had down years at the plate, but he had his best season ever in SD. You would think he is drooling to come back to SD. So maybe he takes a SD friendly deal to be on a winner, pitch well, and win.
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