Quote from Randy Manese on November 7, 2021, 4:13 pm

As usual, any Padres' news concerning add/subtractions from the roster is exceedingly slow to be made public.  If the Padres activate all their current 60 IL players, this will put them at 38 and that includes today's purchase of Adrian Martinez from the minors thus protecting him from the Rule 5 draft, whenever that occurs.   Should be followed soon by Gore being added as well as Valenzuela and maybe one or two more.

However, for the latter to happen and to possibly add a free agent before the CBA lapse, need a couple more subtractions from the roster.  It will probably come from conversations between Niebla, Fritz and others in the organization who have a good idea of what Guerra, Anderson, Norwood or Wingenter have to offer.  In may opinion, they will still try to hang onto Avila and Lawson over the other four.  As Fenn indicated above, Strahm may not be offered arbitration because of his bum knees and the prospect that getting 2M+ value out of him in 2022 is slim.

Quote from fenn68 on November 7, 2021, 5:30 pm

I note on the sidebar … Martinez would have been a minor league FA if he had not been added to the 40 man today. He signed early in 2015 and minor leaguers who are eligible become FA tomorrow.

Padres will probably wait until the last moment on Nov 19 to make the remaining roster moves for Rule 5 protection. Makes sense to protect from any “unexpected” changes in the status of players … the ones they want to protect and the ones they plan to DFA. Injuries, trades, criminal activity, etc … can alter the plan and two weeks is enough time for the unknown to strike.

Quote from fenn68 on November 8, 2021, 4:41 am

Per Roster Resource the Padres are at 39 on the 40 man after adding Martinez.

With Rule 5 protects and probably a trade/FA add or two at some point will result in a number of current roster players to be let go.

Now I know Reggie Lawson is (was) a top prospect but beginning to think his occupying a 40 man roster slot (at the expense of player that may be needed in 2022 or a better prospect) is highly questionable.

He is already 24 and perpetually injured. Consider he last had a full season in 2018 (A+, 4.69 ERA). 2019 (28 innings then TJ surgery) … 2020 DNP … 2021 (7 innings … injured and did not pitch after June). No idea on the 2021 injury.

Padres clearly know more on his health but even if “healthy” not likely to be a useful piece for the ML club in 2022. Given that every club has to deal with roster … what are the chances that any other club selects Lawson off waivers, a guy who has not pitched since 2018 and ended 2021 injured vs keeping other options?

Quote from fenn68 on November 8, 2021, 9:40 am

Time to start pure speculation on who the Padres may sign in FA (if anyone).

MLBTradeRumors makes the opening bid with their Top 50 FA and predictions of signing team and contract (wrong more often than not) ... 3 writers making predictions (Dierkes, Adams, and Franco).

Padres only were named twice:

#10 Castellanos (30 next season) ... Adams and Franco .. 5 years / $115MM (AAV $23MM)

#47 N.Cruz (42 next season) .......... Adams and Dierkes ... 1 year / $12MM

Maybe Adams was hedging his bet naming two DH or thinks Castellanos is LF ... but I can't see paying for both given their already high payroll.

What seems clear is that all three see the need for an impact bat while none seem to see the Padres pushing that hard to land a major arm (SP or RP).

Note that Castellanos was offered a QO ... so Padres would lose a draft pick and international slot money if signed. Picking up $23MM AAV is a large add and may have to be preceded by some payroll downsizing (Myers or Hosmer at the cost of including prospects?). On the other hand, if the Padres want to bite the bullet in 2022 they will get automatic relief with the FA of Myers, Clevinger, Stammen, Johnson, Frazier after 2022 and a chance Hosmer opts out. Should be more than enough to pay for Castellanos ... resign Musgrove ... deal with Tatis' contract escalation.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on November 8, 2021, 9:52 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 8, 2021, 9:40 am

Time to start pure speculation on who the Padres may sign in FA (if anyone).

MLBTradeRumors makes the opening bid with their Top 50 FA and predictions of signing team and contract (wrong more often than not) ... 3 writers making predictions (Dierkes, Adams, and Franco).

Padres only were named twice:

#10 Castellanos (30 next season) ... Adams and Franco .. 5 years / $115MM (AAV $23MM)

#47 N.Cruz (42 next season) .......... Adams and Dierkes ... 1 year / $12MM

Maybe Adams was hedging his bet naming two DH or thinks Castellanos is LF ... but I can't see paying for both given their already high payroll.

What seems clear is that all three see the need for an impact bat while none seem to see the Padres pushing that hard to land a major arm (SP or RP).

Note that Castellanos was offered a QO ... so Padres would lose a draft pick and international slot money if signed. Picking up $23MM AAV is a large add and may have to be preceded by some payroll downsizing (Myers or Hosmer at the cost of including prospects?). On the other hand, if the Padres want to bite the bullet in 2022 they will get automatic relief with the FA of Myers, Clevinger, Stammen, Johnson, Frazier after 2022 and a chance Hosmer opts out. Should be more than enough to pay for Castellanos ... resign Musgrove ... deal with Tatis' contract escalation.

 

I was just coming here to post about that MLBTR blurb, and I am thinking that SD might just fly by the CBT this season, and really go for it.

As you mention, there is a lot of dollars coming off the books with Myers, Clevinger, Stammen, Johnson, and Frazier, not to mention that even if Hosmer doesnt opt out, he still drops in salary in 2023.

An OF of Castellanos, Grisham, Myers could be really nice. An INF of Machado, Tatis, Frazier, and Crone works for me, with Caratini or Nola behind the plate. Sign Jank and/or Marisnick (true CFers) as back up OFers, and your bench rounds out with Kim, Caratini or Nola, and Profar.

I still think that somehow Hosmer ends up back in KC this offseason or maybe BAL.

Quote from fenn68 on November 8, 2021, 11:14 am

Hosmer will be an interesting saga. Most are not satisfied with his Padre production given his contract BUT he was an "average" hitter and moving him creates an additional hole beyond DH and LF .... finding 3 hitters more productive would be not only a challenge but expensive.

Then add that moving him an a major part of his contract will likely cost a key prospect ... something the Padres are currently short on and will need in 2023-24.

I could see a bite the bullet in 2022 and put out a starting 9 line-up of Nola-Hosmer-Cronenworth-Tatis-Machado-Castellanos-Grisham-Myers-Frazier ... Caratini-Kim-Profar-plus one as the bench. Let 2023 fix the pay issue.

My hang-up is that it may cost the Padres too much to move Hosmer while creating an offensive hole.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 8, 2021, 11:56 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 8, 2021, 11:14 am

Hosmer will be an interesting saga. Most are not satisfied with his Padre production given his contract BUT he was an "average" hitter and moving him creates an additional hole beyond DH and LF .... finding 3 hitters more productive would be not only a challenge but expensive.

My hang-up is that it may cost the Padres too much to move Hosmer while creating an offensive hole.

I dont think it will create an offensive hole. I actually think it will remove a log jam.

As you have mentioned, Hosmer once known for his gold glove defense, has been slipping since arriving in SD. So IMO, we already have his replacement in Crone. His bat and glove are both better than Hosmer. That allows Frazier to play at 2B.

Leaving SD still in need of only finding a DH and LFer. And if we believe MLBTR, which no one really does on these predictions, are going to be filled by Castellanos and Cruz.

And the may part, depends on how you view Hosmer and what you pay him for. IMO, we overpaid for Hosmer for two reasons. Sign a big name FA, and his professional demeanor/leadership in the clubhouse. Even if Hosmer doesnt opt out after a trade, the new team gets him for an average of $14.75M per season. If you have a young team, and need that "Veteran" presence to steady the "kids", then I still think Hosmer is that guy. So maybe a team like BAL would take Hosmer, $19M, and a mid level prospect for his leadership. Plus, in the AL East and those smaller ballparks, his bat might play like a $20M bat.

Quote from fenn68 on November 8, 2021, 12:47 pm

Agree that adding Castellanos and Cruz plus allowing Frazier a full time role would be great ... better than having Hosmer in the line-up.

The issue is what it would take to move any part of Hosmer's contact $20MM (2022) and $13MM/yr for the next three. If Cruz is getting $12MM ... and they are paying the $23MM for Castellanos ... probably would want (need) to clear a lot of money and to do that probably need to be including some top prospects. In the long run is that worth it for one year of Cruz?

Padres will have to struggle with that ... assuming any other team even wants Hosmer at any price that makes sense to the Padres. Preller has yet to be successful in moving Hosmer or Myers ... so what comes first?

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 8, 2021, 1:13 pm

If we can entice the Royals to take Hosmer they may be willing to take a couple prospects a little further away.

At least....more so than a team closer to contending.