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Minor League Discussion
Quote from Cptjack on July 16, 2019, 1:42 amIf we can't squeeze more value out of France as a 3B in a trade than he would provide us as a utility guy that would be an organizational failing.
If we can't squeeze more value out of France as a 3B in a trade than he would provide us as a utility guy that would be an organizational failing.
Quote from fenn68 on July 16, 2019, 6:45 amQuote from BoosterSD on July 15, 2019, 6:23 pmFrance needs to play nothing but LF for 90% of the time going forward. Potts, coming into Pro ball as a SS needs to play 2B and LF about 40% at each position. That way if you need to use Urias (SD has some issue with him) as a trade chip. Potts can be ready to become the next 2B. Neither is going to see 3B unless an injury comes up. I honestly think both will become trade assets soon.
Agree that both France and Potts need to get a lot of work at positions other than 3B ... no future there with the Padres and, frankly, very low trade value as a minor league 3B unless they become Top 50 prospects in MLB ... which they are not. Their chances to have value appears to lie in the versatility route (most teams in MLB seem to be valuing that more than one role players). Then if they really develop as hitters .... an OF role with the Padres is not out of the question.
As for 2B ... if Urias is not the future ... bet on Miller (AA) getting the first shot then Edwards (A+). Note that Edwards seems to have adjusted to A+ quickly (hitting over .300) both are showing signs of being legit hitters along with decent middle INF defense and add Edwards speed.
Quote from BoosterSD on July 15, 2019, 6:23 pmFrance needs to play nothing but LF for 90% of the time going forward. Potts, coming into Pro ball as a SS needs to play 2B and LF about 40% at each position. That way if you need to use Urias (SD has some issue with him) as a trade chip. Potts can be ready to become the next 2B. Neither is going to see 3B unless an injury comes up. I honestly think both will become trade assets soon.
Agree that both France and Potts need to get a lot of work at positions other than 3B ... no future there with the Padres and, frankly, very low trade value as a minor league 3B unless they become Top 50 prospects in MLB ... which they are not. Their chances to have value appears to lie in the versatility route (most teams in MLB seem to be valuing that more than one role players). Then if they really develop as hitters .... an OF role with the Padres is not out of the question.
As for 2B ... if Urias is not the future ... bet on Miller (AA) getting the first shot then Edwards (A+). Note that Edwards seems to have adjusted to A+ quickly (hitting over .300) both are showing signs of being legit hitters along with decent middle INF defense and add Edwards speed.
Quote from fenn68 on July 18, 2019, 7:59 amQuote from David Nevin on July 17, 2019, 7:04 pmGarrett Richards with 2 innings today in the AZL.
Good sign for 2020 if he can get quality innings during his rehab and then get ML time in late August and Sept. As much as physical ... I am sure the mental side of returning to the ML is important. Sets up a clean start for 2020.
If he returns to his earlier form ... Padres have a #1 for 2020.
Quote from David Nevin on July 17, 2019, 7:04 pmGarrett Richards with 2 innings today in the AZL.
Good sign for 2020 if he can get quality innings during his rehab and then get ML time in late August and Sept. As much as physical ... I am sure the mental side of returning to the ML is important. Sets up a clean start for 2020.
If he returns to his earlier form ... Padres have a #1 for 2020.
Quote from fenn68 on July 18, 2019, 8:14 amI am getting a bit antsy about the Padres making some promotions for the last 4-6 weeks of the season. There are at least a few prospects who warrant an introduction to the next level before next season.
Mainly looking at position players ... I can see other issues with pitchers having to do with innings / workload coupled with some need to more completely evaluate the arms already in the next level.
In the upper levels ... not only for the player’s development but to help the Padres get some prospects nearer to ML readiness ..... a promotion of Miller to AAA (middle INF support), Córdoba to AA (INF/OF support). Maybe Castillo up to AAA (if they really see him as a legit prospect) as middle INF.
At the other end of the spectrum .... some moves for AZ Rookie to TC would seem warranted. TC has no offense and AZ has a number of major prospects who are producing. A month in NWL would be a good test prior to emersion into the Midwest League in 2020. Abrams and Head for sure but there are others that merit consideration.
I am getting a bit antsy about the Padres making some promotions for the last 4-6 weeks of the season. There are at least a few prospects who warrant an introduction to the next level before next season.
Mainly looking at position players ... I can see other issues with pitchers having to do with innings / workload coupled with some need to more completely evaluate the arms already in the next level.
In the upper levels ... not only for the player’s development but to help the Padres get some prospects nearer to ML readiness ..... a promotion of Miller to AAA (middle INF support), Córdoba to AA (INF/OF support). Maybe Castillo up to AAA (if they really see him as a legit prospect) as middle INF.
At the other end of the spectrum .... some moves for AZ Rookie to TC would seem warranted. TC has no offense and AZ has a number of major prospects who are producing. A month in NWL would be a good test prior to emersion into the Midwest League in 2020. Abrams and Head for sure but there are others that merit consideration.
Quote from fenn68 on July 18, 2019, 9:10 amAlmost forgot Olivares from AA to AAA ... Potential for all three OF slots (even as a 4th OF) would be a boon to the ML club at some point in 2020 .... 5 tool talent (lite).
Almost forgot Olivares from AA to AAA ... Potential for all three OF slots (even as a 4th OF) would be a boon to the ML club at some point in 2020 .... 5 tool talent (lite).
Quote from fenn68 on July 21, 2019, 10:35 amA follow up on Olivares and Cordoba and their 2nd half performances to warrant some optimism:
========
Edward Olivares (23) in AA playing both CF and RF.
1st half: 269/393/446 in 242 AB with 14 SB
2nd half: 364/415/607 in 107 AB with 9 SB
=========
Allen Cordoba (23) in A+ after basically two lost seasons (as Rule 5 and injury) playing 3B/LF/CF/RF/SS.
1st half: 263/315/372 in 156 AB with 7 SB
2nd half: 378/439/513 in 119 AB with 19 SB
=========
As MLB seems to be highly valuing athletic / versatile players both these are showing that potential with what appears to be an ability to actually hit ... showing enough to keep around.
Olivares is on the 40 man and can be optioned in 2020 and 2021, I believe). Cordoba is not on the 40 man is making the case to be added (he also would have 2020 and 2021 as option years) ... if not added think he can be taken (again) in Rule 5 and after next season (and not on the 40 man) should be a minor league FA.
A follow up on Olivares and Cordoba and their 2nd half performances to warrant some optimism:
========
Edward Olivares (23) in AA playing both CF and RF.
1st half: 269/393/446 in 242 AB with 14 SB
2nd half: 364/415/607 in 107 AB with 9 SB
=========
Allen Cordoba (23) in A+ after basically two lost seasons (as Rule 5 and injury) playing 3B/LF/CF/RF/SS.
1st half: 263/315/372 in 156 AB with 7 SB
2nd half: 378/439/513 in 119 AB with 19 SB
=========
As MLB seems to be highly valuing athletic / versatile players both these are showing that potential with what appears to be an ability to actually hit ... showing enough to keep around.
Olivares is on the 40 man and can be optioned in 2020 and 2021, I believe). Cordoba is not on the 40 man is making the case to be added (he also would have 2020 and 2021 as option years) ... if not added think he can be taken (again) in Rule 5 and after next season (and not on the 40 man) should be a minor league FA.
Quote from fenn68 on July 22, 2019, 8:29 amWith the recent call-ups of top prospects is going to lead to a significant change to the Top 30 list ... good chance the rank of the farm system drops.
Urias and L.Allen will drop off by the end of August. Munoz, Morejon and Baez likely will not (not enough roster days to go and unlikely to pitch enough innings). However, if they make the 2020 roster they will be off the list in late April. Tatis, Mejia, Paddack, Quantrill, and Naylor already have dropped off the list. So, by May 2020, 10 of the Top 30 to start 2019 will have "graduated".
Add in some "under performing" players .... and we should see a major overhaul in name and rankings.
With the recent call-ups of top prospects is going to lead to a significant change to the Top 30 list ... good chance the rank of the farm system drops.
Urias and L.Allen will drop off by the end of August. Munoz, Morejon and Baez likely will not (not enough roster days to go and unlikely to pitch enough innings). However, if they make the 2020 roster they will be off the list in late April. Tatis, Mejia, Paddack, Quantrill, and Naylor already have dropped off the list. So, by May 2020, 10 of the Top 30 to start 2019 will have "graduated".
Add in some "under performing" players .... and we should see a major overhaul in name and rankings.
Quote from Brian Connelly on July 23, 2019, 12:00 pmYes, it will be a testament to the Padres system big time if they are a top 10 system by mid season next year.
An utterly unbelieveable 18 of the "consensus" top 33 prospects in our system beginning 2019 are now on the 40 (47 or whatever) man roster!! (includes Inj all year Espinoza & Nix)
Of these, 8 have already "graduated" (Tatis, Mejia, Paddack, Naylor, Quantrill, Margevicius, France, & Wingenter) -- I use approx 100 AB, 10 starts/50 IP for SP, 35 appearances/30 IP for RP. Urias will by early August. Logan Allen might...
... Normally a system losing a third of its talent --10 of top 33 (plus "loss" of Espinoza = 11) would take a major hit. We won't be #1 system anymore, but WILL still have Gore likely top 10, Patino likely top 50, Morejon & Baez not yet graduated(?), possibly Weathers & X. Edwards currently in top 100 + likely CJ Abrams & possibly Campusano... not at all unreasonable to project 8 top 100 prospects still!! But then 2-3 of those guys likely graduate by midseason incl Gore.
Yes, it will be a testament to the Padres system big time if they are a top 10 system by mid season next year.
An utterly unbelieveable 18 of the "consensus" top 33 prospects in our system beginning 2019 are now on the 40 (47 or whatever) man roster!! (includes Inj all year Espinoza & Nix)
Of these, 8 have already "graduated" (Tatis, Mejia, Paddack, Naylor, Quantrill, Margevicius, France, & Wingenter) -- I use approx 100 AB, 10 starts/50 IP for SP, 35 appearances/30 IP for RP. Urias will by early August. Logan Allen might...
... Normally a system losing a third of its talent --10 of top 33 (plus "loss" of Espinoza = 11) would take a major hit. We won't be #1 system anymore, but WILL still have Gore likely top 10, Patino likely top 50, Morejon & Baez not yet graduated(?), possibly Weathers & X. Edwards currently in top 100 + likely CJ Abrams & possibly Campusano... not at all unreasonable to project 8 top 100 prospects still!! But then 2-3 of those guys likely graduate by midseason incl Gore.
Quote from fenn68 on July 23, 2019, 1:40 pmAny recent prospect assessment of Reiss Knehr?
Padres drafted him last year in the 20th round out of Fordham U. ... not normally a resume for a SP prospect. However, he did well in late 2018 (got to FW) and now he is already in LE ... starting ... and getting good results.
My first reaction was another experienced college pitcher with a quality breaking pitch and command that will get figured out at the upper levels. Then I saw an older report that has his FB in the low 90s (touching 97MPH) and a “wicked” slider.
Not sure what is true since that skill set normally would justify a better than 20th round selection. If those basic skills are really there ... maybe not a SP down the road unless he gets a 3rd effective pitch BUT the basics of a quality RP .... IF true.
Any recent prospect assessment of Reiss Knehr?
Padres drafted him last year in the 20th round out of Fordham U. ... not normally a resume for a SP prospect. However, he did well in late 2018 (got to FW) and now he is already in LE ... starting ... and getting good results.
My first reaction was another experienced college pitcher with a quality breaking pitch and command that will get figured out at the upper levels. Then I saw an older report that has his FB in the low 90s (touching 97MPH) and a “wicked” slider.
Not sure what is true since that skill set normally would justify a better than 20th round selection. If those basic skills are really there ... maybe not a SP down the road unless he gets a 3rd effective pitch BUT the basics of a quality RP .... IF true.




