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#551 · December 14, 2018, 10:11 am
And with Myers bump in pay next year, I dont think NYM can handle that payroll. Unless, you trade dollars for dollars. You could have Thor and Cespedes come to SD and Realmuto,Myers, and Yates go to NYM.
Cespedes is out for most of the season (ASG at best bet), so you could let him heal all season, let Renfroe/Reyes/Cordero play the corners all season and either build trade value or wash out. Then in 2020 you have a healthy Cespedes to go into a line up with Tatis, Hosmer, and Urias.
#552 · December 14, 2018, 11:06 am
Quote from David Nevin on December 14, 2018, 7:40 amAlso,I believe the reason we haven't completed any trades yet is because AJ "is" putting a high value on our guys....and rightfully so.
Teams are demanding Tatis/Gore/Urias and he isn't budging.
I do wonder who else(Patino/Paddack/Allen) he isn't willing to include?
But you gotta give up something of value if you want a #1 starter.
Agree! Tatis & Gore are "no touch" for anyone including Syndergaard IMO. Not going to get a chance to draft another Gore.
Urias & Paddack are "no touch" for anyone BUT maybe Syndergaard or Kluber; not saying let's do it, but would consider it. Mets have no need of Urias.
Mejia probably best prospect trade chip since position of depth, but you have to be willing to listen on the next FIVE guys in our top 10 (all top 100): Morejon, Baez, Allen, & Patino, but Weathers is probably too far away to have much value. This only leaves 5 of our top 10 as trade chips for anything but #1 SP's with 3 years control.
David, your ascending value on Patino argument definitely applies the most to Gore. Think what HE's worth IF he has a healthy productive year winding up in AA. No reason Patino can't keep ascending, but just coming from a much "lower" prospect status initially. Also worth pointing out that Morejon, Patino, Espinoza, & Weathers are all undersized to project as #1-2 SP.
Maybe #1 Farm will just organically "become" #1 MLB team given enough time without any trades... but it doesn't usually work that way.
I continue to believe that #1 SP is THE glaring hole on the MLB roster (like SS was for years) now that the talent lava is beginning to arrive. It was irrelevant last year & prior when we projected to lose 90+ games. Where guys are at developmentally, I do not believe it's fair to ask any guy on roster or Farm to be the #1 SP in the next 3 years. We're lucky to have multiple guys who could fill that role some day, but that soon? No. I also believe that NOT having that guy there will actually hinder/hurt the development of many of the prospects by putting too much pressure on the front of the rotation to pitch "over their heads" to compete. Are we all willing to enter year 3-4 of Tatis & Urias before really having a guy in that slot in rotation who is worthy of AND ready for it? I'm hoping that Preller stands firm on elite prospects, but is blowing smoke a little about "moving on from veteran SP's" to get Mets/Marlins to eventually break down & make a deal he can live with.
#553 · December 14, 2018, 11:24 am
Quote from Brian Connelly on December 14, 2018, 11:06 amMaybe #1 Farm will just organically "become" #1 MLB team given enough time without any trades... but it doesn't usually work that way.
What I think of when I read this is ... the KC Royals ... for a looong time, they were bad ... and then you started hearing that they had A LOT of talent coming up ... and for a couple of years it still seemed unlikely that that franchise could become a winner primarily because of their developing talent ... and then they did it ... after winning 65/67/71/72/86/89 games in 2009 thru 2014 ... they went to the WS in 2014 ... and then won the WS in 2015 ... https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/KCR/ ... so, an 8 year process.
And obviously the Astros are poster boys for this process also ... laughable from 2009 thru 2014 ... to WS champs in 2017 with 2 other post-season appearances ... https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/HOU/
Does this Padres' farm compare to the talent that was developed by the Royals and Astros? Do we have anyone as good as Altuve and Bregman, for example? Or Alex Gordon / Lorenzo Cain?
It worries me a bit that the peak WAR projections for Tatis are in the low 4s ... https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/elegy-for-18-san-diego-padres/ ... what seems needed is someone to be a 5+ WAR guy ... or more/better! Do we have that coming?
Or ... can we win with depth? (ie. a lot of guys in the 3-4 range)
Or ... will we be able to trade for the 5+ guy?
I'm optimistic ... and understand that it's not a lock ...
#554 · December 15, 2018, 7:14 am
Might be a very interesting 2019 in LE ... especially SP. Good chance they have Gore (#2), Patino (#9), and Espinosa (#12) all with top of the rotation potential by most accounts. Then add Hernandez and Margevcius coming off strong 2018 ... worth a trip up north.
If you want the Texas two step you might see SP:
EP: Paddack (#5); Allen (#8); Quantrill (#11); Nix (#14); and at some point Lamet
W: Morejon (#6); Baez (#7); Lawson (#21); Avila (#29); and Scholtens who had a good 2018
That is a good layout of POTENTIAL coming in waves of quality and volume allowing for some not developing while setting up a new arm (or two) arriving in SD for the next few seasons.
Might make me want to hold on to the high ceiling prospects and systematically deal for "good" ML arms (e.g. Lauer, Lucchesi) who are always in demand and maybe have more trade value to contenders .... basically rotate out of "good" arms to "elite" arms.
#555 · December 15, 2018, 11:44 am
Quote from Brian Connelly on December 14, 2018, 11:06 am
Quote from David Nevin on December 14, 2018, 7:40 am
Also,I believe the reason we haven't completed any trades yet is because AJ "is" putting a high value on our guys....and rightfully so.
Teams are demanding Tatis/Gore/Urias and he isn't budging.
I do wonder who else(Patino/Paddack/Allen) he isn't willing to include?
But you gotta give up something of value if you want a #1 starter.
Agree! Tatis & Gore are "no touch" for anyone including Syndergaard IMO. Not going to get a chance to draft another Gore.
Urias & Paddack are "no touch" for anyone BUT maybe Syndergaard or Kluber; not saying let's do it, but would consider it. Mets have no need of Urias.
Mejia probably best prospect trade chip since position of depth, but you have to be willing to listen on the next FIVE guys in our top 10 (all top 100): Morejon, Baez, Allen, & Patino, but Weathers is probably too far away to have much value. This only leaves 5 of our top 10 as trade chips for anything but #1 SP's with 3 years control.
David, your ascending value on Patino argument definitely applies the most to Gore. Think what HE's worth IF he has a healthy productive year winding up in AA. No reason Patino can't keep ascending, but just coming from a much "lower" prospect status initially. Also worth pointing out that Morejon, Patino, Espinoza, & Weathers are all undersized to project as #1-2 SP.
Maybe #1 Farm will just organically "become" #1 MLB team given enough time without any trades... but it doesn't usually work that way.
I continue to believe that #1 SP is THE glaring hole on the MLB roster (like SS was for years) now that the talent lava is beginning to arrive. It was irrelevant last year & prior when we projected to lose 90+ games. Where guys are at developmentally, I do not believe it's fair to ask any guy on roster or Farm to be the #1 SP in the next 3 years. We're lucky to have multiple guys who could fill that role some day, but that soon? No. I also believe that NOT having that guy there will actually hinder/hurt the development of many of the prospects by putting too much pressure on the front of the rotation to pitch "over their heads" to compete. Are we all willing to enter year 3-4 of Tatis & Urias before really having a guy in that slot in rotation who is worthy of AND ready for it? I'm hoping that Preller stands firm on elite prospects, but is blowing smoke a little about "moving on from veteran SP's" to get Mets/Marlins to eventually break down & make a deal he can live with.
HUGE difference in the perceived values of Patino and Gore though.
Gore has had a high value from the day we drafted him.
Patinos’ value skyrocketed since this last season but even now is much below his “potential” value.
#556 · December 17, 2018, 2:34 pm
News from Winter Leagues ...
https://www.mlb.com/padres/news/jimenez-tatis-jr-mashing-in-winter-leagues/c-301924482
Australia
Michael Gettys, OF, Padres -- A tour of the Australian Baseball League last offseason did wonders for Buddy Reed's development, so the Padres are hoping that Gettys, a former Padres Top 30 prospect, will take a similar path. The 23-year-old outfielder is tied for the league lead in both home runs (six) and RBIs (20) and sports a .315/.386/.685 slash line through 20 games. During the regular season, Gettys totaled 15 homers and 17 steals but slashed just .230/.290/.399 with a 33.8 percent strikeout rate over 125 games at Double-A San Antonio.
Dominican Republic
Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, Padres' No. 1 -- The No. 2 overall prospect has hit safely in eight of his last 10 games for Estrellas, though only one of those contests was a multi-hit effort. The 19-year-old shortstop has still managed four doubles and a triple in that span, while his knack for getting on base has resulted in him scoring nine runs. On the season, Tatis owns a .263/.379/.488 line with 11 extra-base hits, seven steals and 17 runs through 23 games.
BTW, I'm OK with Tatis not stealing any bases in winter ball ... yikes!
#557 · December 18, 2018, 6:18 pm
A tweet that caught my eye ...
John Sickels Retweeted
I still remember my first reaction to seeing #Padres Tirso Ornelas. “He’s HOW old?!” Set to turn 19 in March, the 6’3, 200 pound OF was “kinda pudgy” when first discovered, according to a scout. If healthy, he’s set to turn heads again in 2019. #PadresOnDeck
#558 · December 18, 2018, 6:22 pm
I was wondering who is this Emily Waldon ... then I saw this ...
John Sickels Retweeted
16,000 followers. Four years, a whole lot of news, a whole lot of minor league games and a whole lot of stories about a whole lot of future stars. Thanks for your support for me, for @TheAthleticDET and @TheAthleticMLB. Means more than you know.
#559 · December 21, 2018, 10:49 am
Random thoughts from above:
Despite Center's dumb line about Reed quoted above, Buddy and the player development guys both agree that the turning point for his development was in camp in Peoria AFTER he got back from Australia.
Emily is great and provides some high quality first-person coverage of the Midwest League these days. She's been doing fantastic work for several years and deserves a TON of credit for carving out a strong niche for herself doing minor league and prospect coverage for The Athletic.
Patino still has some significant reliever risk because of his size and would have to vastly outperform Gore well beyond this coming year to be seen as a comparable prospect across the industry.
#560 · December 21, 2018, 10:53 am
Padres' announced MLFA signings with big league invites today. Most are names we reported a month ago.
New addition is Aderlin Rodriguez, a big R/R corner infielder who spent 2018 (and 2017, and 2015) in Double-A. Not really sure how he fits anywhere in the org for 2019.
Also appears that neither IF Ivan Castillo nor RHP Todd Van Steensel got invites as part of their minor league free agent deals.
Lastly, Alex Burg was previously reported as signed. He was subsequently released.