Quote from David Jay on July 2, 2018, 5:04 pm

Aiken didn't sign because of a serious injury issue. That's not relevant to the discussion here. Whitson didn't sign (because his father's an idiot) based on the set of rules before the set of rules that preceded the current ones. That's also not relevant here.

What is relevant is that the current rules/compressed draft slot system went into effect last year.

Between last year and this, 15 kids from high school have been drafted in the top half of the first round.

Five of them have signed for 5% or more below slot. (Carter Stewart hasn't signed yet, but pretty universal reporting is that he'll get slot plus a little bit.) Two - Royce Lewis and Jarred Kelenic - have signed for $1M less than slot. So, the way you think it works isn't how it's working.

Also relevant is that your theory actually costs you the ability to spend $500K on "your guys" in rounds 11-40, because you don't get the 5% overage amount to spend.

Quote from Cptjack on July 2, 2018, 11:15 pm

Could you link to the rule that states that we do not get access to overage for signing a player underslot and allocating that bonus pool elsewhere?

 

 

Quote from LynchMob on July 3, 2018, 8:22 am

A comment posted at minorleagueball.com last night ...

the list of 18 year olds with 200+ pas in high A the past 9 years is incredibly short--Eguy is E Guy to watch!

Trout, Wilmer Flores, Machado, Aldaberto Mondesi, Vlad Guerrero

By wRC+, vlad was by far the best, then trout and wilmer (both above average). Next is Eguy — his 18 year old high A wrc+ is most comparable to Machado — right about league average. Note Eguy is in a pitcher’s park (http://www.statcorner.com/bat.php?id=666703). Mondesi really struggled in high A as an 18 year old.

 

Quote from LynchMob on July 3, 2018, 8:33 am

Another (series of) comments posted at minorleagueball.com ...

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018/7/2/17523662/minor-league-ball-morning-report-monday-july-2nd-2018

California League First-Half FaBIO Percentile Ratings (G thru Jun 17)

Player is compared vs the sample of league-qualifying SP. 97 is plus plus, 84 is plus, 50 is average, 16 is minus, 3 is minus minus

Top Overall Ratings (min 50 batters faced and 10+ batters/G)

Jesus Luzardo* (OAK,55 BF,18 BF/G,96 Youth): 100 Overall,45 Ctl,100 K,55 Batted Ball (97 GB,2 IFFB,89 LD Avoid,68 OFFB Avoid,5 PullOFFB Avoid)
Sam McWilliams (ARI,99 BF,20 BF/G,62 Youth): 100 Overall,80 Ctl,94 K,100 Batted Ball (92 GB,81 IFFB,90 LD Avoid,87 OFFB Avoid,99 PullOFFB Avoid)
Chris Paddack (SD,161 BF,20 BF/G,71 Youth): 100 Overall,96 Ctl,100 K,5 Batted Ball (28 GB,78 IFFB,4 LD Avoid,87 OFFB Avoid,22 PullOFFB Avoid)
Dean Kremer (LAD,270 BF,19 BF/G,71 Youth): 96 Overall,47 Ctl,99 K,50 Batted Ball (40 GB,43 IFFB,65 LD Avoid,23 OFFB Avoid,36 PullOFFB Avoid)
David Hill (COL,61 BF,20 BF/G,28 Youth): 95 Overall,36 Ctl,85 K,98 Batted Ball (87 GB,23 IFFB,91 LD Avoid,48 OFFB Avoid,100 PullOFFB Avoid)
Dustin Hurlbutt (OAK,94 BF,19 BF/G,4 Youth): 92 Overall,66 Ctl,29 K,100 Batted Ball (76 GB,100 IFFB,97 LD Avoid,79 OFFB Avoid,98 PullOFFB Avoid)
Adrian Morejon* (SD,242 BF,22 BF/G,100 Youth): 92 Overall,32 Ctl,79 K,98 Batted Ball (95 GB,25 IFFB,98 LD Avoid,52 OFFB Avoid,76 PullOFFB Avoid)

• Paddack’s shoddy batted ball profile hints at present K overreliance on the changeup; anticipate some GB-heavier lines a la Jul 1 as his 2nd half unfolds

League's Youngest Pitchers (with min 50 batters faced and 10+ batters/G)

Jesus Luzardo* (OAK,55 BF,18 BF/G,96 Youth): 100 Overall,45 Ctl,100 K,55 Batted Ball (97 GB,2 IFFB,89 LD Avoid,68 OFFB Avoid,5 PullOFFB Avoid)
Adrian Morejon* (SD,242 BF,22 BF/G,100 Youth): 92 Overall,32 Ctl,79 K,98 Batted Ball (95 GB,25 IFFB,98 LD Avoid,52 OFFB Avoid,76 PullOFFB Avoid)
Ljay Newsome (SEA,316 BF,24 BF/G,88 Youth): 81 Overall,98 Ctl,38 K,77 Batted Ball (8 GB,100 IFFB,85 LD Avoid,7 OFFB Avoid,13 PullOFFB Avoid)
Dustin May (LAD,192 BF,21 BF/G,96 Youth): 74 Overall,72 Ctl,53 K,79 Batted Ball (98 GB,14 IFFB,46 LD Avoid,98 OFFB Avoid,83 PullOFFB Avoid)
Logan Webb (SF,179 BF,13 BF/G,88 Youth): 65 Overall,21 Ctl,26 K,98 Batted Ball (79 GB,84 IFFB,88 LD Avoid,70 OFFB Avoid,90 PullOFFB Avoid)
Bo Takahashi (ARI,193 BF,21 BF/G,90 Youth): 65 Overall,78 Ctl,76 K,19 Batted Ball (50 GB,26 IFFB,12 LD Avoid,75 OFFB Avoid,79 PullOFFB Avoid)
Reggie Lawson (SD,260 BF,22 BF/G,95 Youth): 47 Overall,25 Ctl,57 K,52 Batted Ball (47 GB,36 IFFB,73 LD Avoid,22 OFFB Avoid,23 PullOFFB Avoid)
Pedro Avila (SD,300 BF,25 BF/G,90 Youth): 44 Overall,17 Ctl,49 K,65 Batted Ball (40 GB,83 IFFB,62 LD Avoid,46 OFFB Avoid,57 PullOFFB Avoid)
Ronald Bolanos (SD,245 BF,20 BF/G,84 Youth): 19 Overall,8 Ctl,37 K,36 Batted Ball (29 GB,31 IFFB,35 LD Avoid,26 OFFB Avoid,81 PullOFFB Avoid)

Posted  by reillocity  on Jul 2, 2018 | 2:54 PM up reply  rec (2)  flag

• Morejon has developed a stronger GB game this spring after working as a definite OFFBer in his ’17 stateside debut

Others of Interest

Jose Suarez* (LAA,37 BF,19 BF/G,98 Youth): 100 Overall,25 Ctl,100 K,100 Batted Ball (100 GB,39 IFFB,79 LD Avoid,100 OFFB Avoid,100 PullOFFB Avoid)
Griffin Canning (LAA,34 BF,17 BF/G,79 Youth): 99 Overall,14 Ctl,99 K,99 Batted Ball (91 GB,23 IFFB,98 LD Avoid,33 OFFB Avoid,69 PullOFFB Avoid)
Parker Dunshee (OAK,280 BF,23 BF/G,47 Youth): 64 Overall,73 Ctl,85 K,10 Batted Ball (5 GB,55 IFFB,13 LD Avoid,13 OFFB Avoid,40 PullOFFB Avoid)
Jordan Sheffield (LAD,131 BF,19 BF/G,55 Youth): 58 Overall,10 Ctl,63 K,78 Batted Ball (35 GB,68 IFFB,57 LD Avoid,33 OFFB Avoid,82 PullOFFB Avoid)
Melvin Adon (SF,306 BF,22 BF/G,29 Youth): 53 Overall,15 Ctl,34 K,93 Batted Ball (98 GB,23 IFFB,80 LD Avoid,94 OFFB Avoid,93 PullOFFB Avoid)
Joe Gatto (LAA,189 BF,21 BF/G,56 Youth): 52 Overall,22 Ctl,74 K,35 Batted Ball (98 GB,2 IFFB,22 LD Avoid,99 OFFB Avoid,74 PullOFFB Avoid)
Michel Baez (SD,203 BF,20 BF/G,72 Youth): 36 Overall,30 Ctl,56 K,27 Batted Ball (31 GB,71 IFFB,25 LD Avoid,58 OFFB Avoid,37 PullOFFB Avoid)

Posted  by reillocity  on Jul 2, 2018 | 2:58 PM up reply  rec (2)  flag

• Baez’ CTL/K game has taken a large tumble just as countryman Yadier Alvarez’ did while making the same transition a year earlier

FaBIO = Fielding and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes (FaBIO) statistical evaluation system

Methods

Each nonbunt plate appearance is sorted into 1 of the following 12 categories, and the pitcher is charged with the league's typical 2016 runs value for said event.

1. BB or HBP, 2. K, 3. IFFB, 4. GB to pull-third, 5. GB to center-third, ..., 7. LD to pull-third, ..., 12. OFFB to oppo-third

Each pitcher's final runs per plate appearance value is compared to the league peer group's mean and standard deviation for that parameter to obtain their Overall Rating. A Batted Ball Rating is determined similarly after omitting all BB+HBP or K events (individual components of the Batted Ball Rating are also computed such as GB Rating, IFFB Rating, etc., using GB per batted ball, IFFB per batted ball, ...). A Control Rating (using BB+HBP per PA) and K Rating (using K/PA) are also determined. A Youth Rating is determined by comparing the pitcher's age relative to the mean and standard deviation (SD) for that role (SP or RP) in their league (the reliever sample in a league tends to be a year or two older, on average).

Each rating will be expressed on a 100 to 0 scale where the number indicates the expected percentage of league peers beaten on the stat. 50 denotes league-average, with 84 being one SD above league-average ("plus", indicated by a green number in tables), 97 being two SD above league-average ("plus plus"), 16 being one SD below league-average ("minus", red number in tables), and 3 being two SD below league-average ("minus minus").

Quote from David Jay on July 3, 2018, 9:37 am

Quote from Cptjack on July 2, 2018, 11:15 pm

Could you link to the rule that states that we do not get access to overage for signing a player underslot and allocating that bonus pool elsewhere?

I'm not I'm not sure if you're being willfully ignorant or it's just naturally occurring, but either way that's not at all what I wrote.

I'd be annoyed that you didn't pay attention to what I wrote,  but since you didn't pay attention to what you wrote either (let him go to Vanderbilt and lose his entire pick amount and the 5% overage for this year's pool), I at least give you credit for consistency.

Quote from Cptjack on July 3, 2018, 9:58 am

Nah, I just couldn't discern the angle since it was such a disingenuous interpretation of the draft rules.

We get the 5% overage albeit at half the pool, we get the same pool even at a slot behind because of the 10% yoy increases, and we still get to sign preller's guy being that he's the one drafting them. That's all dependent on someone being stubborn enough to forgo millions of dollars guaranteed to risk injury to go to college, which of course, has never been "irrelevant".

Quote from Ryan Payne on July 3, 2018, 10:47 pm

In actual important news, it's come to light that Morejon has been casually put on the DL with "flexor soreness" and may come back towards mid-July, but may not. Not good news.

Quote from dvmin98 on July 4, 2018, 3:30 am

Quote from Cptjack on July 1, 2018, 10:04 pm

Quote from dvmin98 on July 1, 2018, 6:38 pm

So apparently Weathers signed for slot value and the entire Padres' interwebs is up in arms because he was supposed to sign for under slot value.  Who cares?  Preller got his guy.  Now sign who you can and lets move on

I care. Sign your guy and go get another, one of your guys. Paying a HS kid slot in the top of the draft is taking all the risk (inferior competition, immaturity, forced projection, injury) the reward is paying them less for that. There isn't anywhere for them to go, which is why only pitchers that have failed to sign out of those top slots are Brady Aiken and Karsten Whitson and their fortunes have changed pretty drastically on them. If the little shit wants slot he can go to Vandy and I'll take the 8th pick in the next draft every time, because guess what that will be one of Prellers guys too.

From what I understand, if you don't sign your guy, you don't get that draft pool money.  Then basically you're out $5 million any way and you don't get your #1 and then you don't have any extra money to buy your guy later on anyway.  Plus the 5% overage you want only pertains to your new draft allotment (so minus the $5 million).  And THEN, next year, if they guy you draft in the 8th spot decides not to sign, then you lose that pick completely. So basically, he has all the leverage in negotiations.

Quote from 3fingersplit on July 4, 2018, 9:22 am

Guys....it's very simple

You think enough of a kid to draft him in the 1st round then you better be prepared to pay him....it's that simple

Preller did what he thought was best for the Padres so enough of this 5% here and slot value there mumbo jumbo...the draft is a crap shoot every year and besides...this is the same team that took on a 13 million dollar salary plus for 2 guys that are either gone or should be gone

I for one hope this kid actually makes it to the majors....ideally for the Padres 🙂