Quote from Randy Manese on January 20, 2024, 9:25 pm

AA San Antonio may potentially have the best 6-man SP rotation in the minors in 2024 at the start of the season with Bergert, Iriarte, Krob, Mazur, Snelling and Thorpe.  The first two may join the big league club by mid-season or before in either a SP or RP capacity to be replaced by Lesko and Lizarraga.  It will be interesting to see how these 8 pitchers develop in 2024 and I hope the Padres keep all of them out of El Paso the entire year!

Padres also have some intriguing arms currently on the Lake Elsinore roster.  If healthy, may be early promotions to High A if not assigned there to open the season.  These include Jagger Haynes, Isaiah Lowe, Brandon Nett and Enmanuel Pinales.

Quote from Randy Manese on January 20, 2024, 10:54 pm

Don't know if this makes any difference in terms of International Signings pool allocation, but Humberto Cruz (who reportedly signed for $700,000) was on a Mexican League team (Diablos Rojos del Mexico) prior to signing with the Padres.  Does this make him exempt from the pool allocation?  If so, it may be why we haven't seen, as yet, any trade by the Padres to get more International Signing money to make up that supposed gap they would need to sign Cruz (and possibly the other 29 players they already have signed since January 15).  A loophole?  Team stats indicate he actually pitched  1 game for them in their regular season, 06/03/23, at age 16.

Quote from fenn68 on January 21, 2024, 2:47 am

Quote from Randy Manese on January 20, 2024, 10:54 pm

Don't know if this makes any difference in terms of International Signings pool allocation, but Humberto Cruz (who reportedly signed for $700,000) was on a Mexican League team (Diablos Rojos del Mexico) prior to signing with the Padres.  Does this make him exempt from the pool allocation?  If so, it may be why we haven't seen, as yet, any trade by the Padres to get more International Signing money to make up that supposed gap they would need to sign Cruz (and possibly the other 29 players they already have signed since January 15).  A loophole?  Team stats indicate he actually pitched  1 game for them in their regular season, 06/03/23, at age 16.

Good thought … I had not put those points together.

I guess if Cruz signed a professional contract with the Diablos they are not now signing an amateur … and then outside the pool. Has the makings of a loophole.

We know Preller is creative and the Padres have a long relationship with the Diablos … wonder IF the Padres, Diablos, and Cruz worked together to orchestrate this scenario? I thought it was odd for him pitching only one game back in June (actually at 16 pitching for them at all). Also,  could be wrong but I though a couple of other kids were used the same way by the Diablos, maybe not as high profile but possible there are (will be) some other similar signings?

Wonder how MLB would react if this is a loophole exposed by the Padres?

However, were not some professionals from Japan (under the age of 25) subject to the pool limits? Thinking Ohtani when he came over and that is what is being said about the hot shot young pitcher in Japan contemplating a ML run next year? Mexico is not Japan and the Diablo is in the detail but that seems to be counter to the idea … if I am right.

Quote from fenn68 on January 21, 2024, 3:14 am

Did a quick look at a write-up from MLB and it appears the exemption for the allocation pool is limited to professionals over age 25 with at least 6 years of professional experience in a MLB recognized league … so Cruz should be part of the allocation if I have that right even if technically a “professional”.

Wonder if we are in a “grey area” where there is an “agreement” to sign but no official paperwork has been filed with MLB allowing the Padres time to add to their allocation? Maybe there has been already a deal of a minor leaguer(s) … not high profile … that has happened to gain the extra allocation but not reported?

Quote from fenn68 on January 21, 2024, 7:58 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 21, 2024, 3:14 am

Did a quick look at a write-up from MLB and it appears the exemption for the allocation pool is limited to professionals over age 25 with at least 6 years of professional experience in a MLB recognized league … so Cruz should be part of the allocation if I have that right even if technically a “professional”.

Wonder if we are in a “grey area” where there is an “agreement” to sign but no official paperwork has been filed with MLB allowing the Padres time to add to their allocation? Maybe there has been already a deal of a minor leaguer(s) … not high profile … that has happened to gain the extra allocation but not reported?

Looking at the minor league transaction pages … only a few (including DeVries) are listed as signed (not Cruz). Maybe my speculation of the Padres having agreement with the near 30 players but have yet to submit the official contracts to MLB (and MLB approving them) could have some legs. If so, still a chance we are waiting on a Padres’ transaction to add to their allocation.

Side: apparently the Padres have re-signed Chandler Seagle to a minor league contract. He is the super defense (zero hit) catcher who got one AB with the Padres last season. With Campusano / Higashioka in the ML and Sullivan in AAA … the Padres have signed minor league FA Seagle, Plawecki, and De La Cruz for EP (none real prospects but Plawecki has ML history). Might that make Sullivan a minor trade chip for international pool allocation? With Valenzuela / Zabala on the AA roster … six catchers not counting Salas ticketed for AAA/AA  … could that mean he is ticketed for Fort Wayne?

 

Quote from Randy Manese on January 21, 2024, 9:42 pm

I may have stumbled on the answer to the Humberto Cruz mystery.  Apparently, since 2019 international signing of players in Mexico could go a couple of ways.  In both situations, the player would get 65%  and the releasing club would get 35%.  In the first method, if the signing club wanted to give the player 1M, then the full amount would go to the player and the releasing club would get 350K; the 1M would count against the signing teams bonus allotment but the releasing club's 350K would not.

In the second method, where the total amount willing to be paid by the signing club is 1M, then the player would get $740,741 (which would count against the signing bonus allocation) while the losing team would get a release fee of $259,259 which would not count against the signing bonus allocation.

So if the Padres rounded up some numbers in reporting the De Vries signing (and the reported amount paid to sign Cruz was slightly under $700,000), they probably had just enough money left in their $4,652,000 pool to squeeze out the remaining 452K of pool money that represented 65% of whatever the true numbers were to sign Cruz from the Diablos Rojos del Mexico.

So, unless we see a trade to acquire some international signing bonus money for the 2024 pool, this exercise could be the solution.  Way down in the weeds for most fans, but when you're retired you have a lot of time on your hands!

 

Quote from Randy Manese on January 25, 2024, 8:51 am

Baseball America's Updated Pre-Season Top 30 has Leodalis De Vries slotted in as the Padres #6 prospect; the top 5 are still Salas, Merrill, Snelling, Lesko and Thorpe.  The rest of the list is the same, just pushed down one slot.  With several 2023 draftees expected to show well this year plus a few coming back from injury, the system has the potential for adding significant depth while not losing that many from the top of this list.

Of those on the list only Bergert and Garrett Hawkins become Rule 5 eligible this year but the latter had recent TJ surgery so won't pitch at all in 2024.  Brandon Valenzuela will be eligible for free agency and could be a late add to the roster if his hit tool improves just a little bit more to get close to average; great defensive catcher and a better hitter than Seagle but strictly a back-up.

Quote from fenn68 on January 25, 2024, 9:21 am

Quote from Randy Manese on January 25, 2024, 8:51 am

Baseball America's Updated Pre-Season Top 30 has Leodalis De Vries slotted in as the Padres #6 prospect; the top 5 are still Salas, Merrill, Snelling, Lesko and Thorpe.  The rest of the list is the same, just pushed down one slot.  With several 2023 draftees expected to show well this year plus a few coming back from injury, the system has the potential for adding significant depth while not losing that many from the top of this list.

Of those on the list only Bergert and Garrett Hawkins become Rule 5 eligible this year but the latter had recent TJ surgery so won't pitch at all in 2024.  Brandon Valenzuela will be eligible for free agency and could be a late add to the roster if his hit tool improves just a little bit more to get close to average; great defensive catcher and a better hitter than Seagle but strictly a back-up.

Sounds about right in my mind … a good slotting for DeVries without any actual professional work. Also like seeing Thorpe in the Top 5 … locally has been maybe under valued in the Soto trade and with the need for SP at the ML level in the next year he with Snelling, Lesko create some volume of quality potential to go with the others.

Valenzuela will be an interesting follow. If he can hit at all … with his defense … should be added to the 40 man. Higashioka will be a FA after the season and Sullivan will have used up his last option year in 2024. No other clear internal option that needs to be protected. Note: no matter how good Salas is in 2024 they don’’t have to add him to the 40 man until they area ready for him in the ML (or 2027).

 

Quote from JasonE135 on January 29, 2024, 9:08 pm

https://www.mlb.com/news/top-tools-top-100-prospects-2024?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

Padres are reasonably well represented. Lesko has the best changeup in the minors. The Padres also have Snelling with one of the top 4 curveballs, Merrill as one of the top 4 bats and Thorpe joins Lesko with one of the top 4 changeup in the minors. Pitching looks good.