Quote from Randy Manese on May 14, 2022, 5:49 pm

It's consistency over time.  All three have had some blips in their performances so far so I think it won't be until late May or  early June when the promotions may happen.  This may coincide with some of the minor league contracts signed by veterans who will/could become free agents if not in the majors by June and also who comes back from injury and, of course, the major league draft.

For Ruiz, he got out of sync a bit after his 2 HR game, but now seems back on track.  Hassell had so much success going the other way, that he fell into the trap of trying to hit everything the other way.  Lately, he's started to hit to right center and pull more to get back to spraying the ball over the entire field with a little more velocity behind the hits.  For Vela, his last game was not as good as his previous and he did get hit a little harder than last time.  However, he had a better mix of pitches - fastball, curve, slider, changeup - and was able to spot his fastball well most of the time; he managed to pull a Houdini act when necessary.   Usually when he missed with his fastball it was high and outside to RH hitters.

It's too bad Merrill and Wood have been injured because they would be obvious candidates to move up.  I've seen flashes from Bergert, Felipe and Iriarte but they need just a little more seasoning.  Several others could move from Lo and High A to AA/High A, respectively, but don't expect much movement to AAA with the exception of E Ruiz; Dixon was a possibility before he got hurt but Fernandez has too many catchers in front of him to get much playing time in AAA.  Kopps has had command issues, so unless he fixes those, don't think we'll see him in El Paso for awhile.

Quote from WindsorUK on May 17, 2022, 8:48 am

Are Waldron and Scholtens legitimate big league prospects? Just wondering who's behind Gore and Knehr and Weathers in our system.

Also, nice to read Reggie Lawson put together a good outing!

I'm assuming at some point this year we'll see Kopps in SD? Does Belen project to MLB as well?

Quote from Randy Manese on May 17, 2022, 1:34 pm

In my opinion, probably not unless Waldron gets more command on that knuckleball since his other pitches are less than major-league average.  Scholtens is a workhorse but doesn't have the talent of Bachar, who might have a chance.  The pitchers I would look at are those likely to be added to the 40 man in November.  I believe those will be Noel Vela and Jairo Iriarte; a third could be Angel Felipe, but he needs to improve his command to earn that spot.  With many free agent possibilities at the end of this year, could open up some other spots for pitchers who are coming back from injury or borderline prospects but it is really hard to commit to pitchers given arm injury history and the suddenness of "getting it" or "losing it".  Morejon and Lawson might be better in relief which is where Baez should also be targeted.

Most likely Preller will stick with as many veterans as the Padres can afford in the starting rotation and let the lower level pitchers at Ft. Wayne and Lake Elsinore develop.  Has to resign Musgrove and Rogers but might roll the dice on the others.  Guys that could move fast are Lizarraga and Susana, the latter has yet to toss an inning but may be the best pitcher in the system not named Gore.

Quote from fenn68 on May 17, 2022, 2:00 pm

Waldron and Scholtens seem to be the type of pitchers that gets a ML cup of coffee as injury fill ins ... and probably remain fringe types for second division teams.

Padres really don't have that "outstanding pitching prospect" in full season ball ... maybe a few that can contribute at the ML level ... maybe if really lucky one may end up as a quality starter but not expecting elite ... but that will take a few years.

I will hedge on the future of 40 man roster pitchers Morejon, Baez, Weathers, and Contreras ... but all are still question marks.

This does present an issue for 2023 ... can't really rely on any significant help in the SP while Musgrove, Manaea, Clevinger, and maybe Martinez go FA. Then gets worse for 2024 when Snell and Darvish go FA. 2025 becomes Gore and ????????. Preller is going to have to do some significant roster / payroll manipulation to keep the Padres contending and must resign more than one of the 2023 FA to be.

The 2022 draft may yield an arm at #15 ... but at #15 unlikely to be a quick ML rise and contributor so the issues for 2023-24 will remain.

Quote from Randy Manese on May 17, 2022, 3:19 pm

By my quick and dirty calculations, Padres have somewhere's in the ballpark of 70-80 million coming off the books in actual salaries and somewhat less than that amount in Competitive Balance Tax (AAV) salaries.  This would include not offering arbitration to Voit, Lamet, Alfaro, Hill and Beaty.  With that number, think we can afford Musgrove and Rogers but then it gets dicey.  A lot depends on how Grisham, Abrams, Martinez, Manaea, Clevinger and others perform for the rest of the year.  Mazara could surprise; Rooker could surprise; even Akiyama could surprise but likely not.

I'm thinking that our RP is going to be surprisingly good as the year goes on so that we won't miss Stammen, Johnson and others who make up the core of the current pen.  Still a long ways to go.  Really looking forward to the development of Abrams and Campusano to take the place of Myers/Profar and Alfaro/Voit.  Hassell is our next best hitter but he could be traded for someone who is already established to round out the the everyday line-up - hopefully, it will not be Gallo.

An interesting year that will get even more interesting as we transition to 2023 and beyond.

Quote from fenn68 on May 17, 2022, 4:08 pm

When through a similar exercise on the AAV level. A lot depends on the opt outs for Hosmer, Martinez, Suarez, and Profar. Those calls will have a bearing on any potential non-tenders and any FA signings. Padres have some increases coming for players entering / moving through arbitration that will eat into the number.

Just guessing on what it would take to sign a mix of the Padre FA at a significantly higher AAV than they currently command … that would eat up most of the “savings” while still needing to fill offense from the loss of Myers.

Tough calls for Preller on who to TRY to sign and for what money … keeping in mind that the players may want the big contract and are fine with moving on and there are limits (money and timing of a vs b).

Would guess Musgrove and Manaea … as 30 year old SP on a team that soon will be very short on SP … would be top priority. Both could be difficult high AAV / long term contracts. After them, ????? … depending a lot on the need for offense. Any scenario should get the Padres back into that $220MM AAV range.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on May 18, 2022, 10:36 am

Speaking of Gallo... i don't think he gets mad money in FA...i am thinking 5/75 $15mil per MAX and love or hate his game POWER OBP GG.. .810ish + .OPS he is >Myers so that would be an upgrade... on the other side of the spectrum is Benemtendi (Gallo without Power but with BA).. he will be cheaper... only Myers and Comforto (inj??) Are available via FA this offseason so unless we trade.. or sign 2 of these 4 (which I don't want to do..1 ok) any OF improvement will be minimal...(offseason non trade wise)

 

As far as Harrell and Wood go... I think AJP needs to keep them..Harrell can easily beat Profar in ST if not by 2023 mid season .. and Wood >Grishman by 2024... dont discount CJ in OF as well if he gets his 300+ ABs in AAA and gets comfortable at the plate..these 3 in particular is why I don't want more than +1 of those FA OFers...

 

I have us at around $90 mil I'm savings ..with Hos going down to $13mil per which I feel he stays with 3/39 for his talent is still slightly higher than I would want but it becomes an OK deal for the aging Vet especially if he continues to contribute like he has in 2022 so far...

Resign

Musgrove

Rogers

and Manea

Which leads to trade deadline...cheering hard for Lamet to dominate at AAA perhaps SP.. so he can be a coveted piece at Deadline

Also guys on the bottom 2/3rds 10 to 30 in our spec list I would add for an upgrade

 

Quick thought Addell OF (Angels) has no room for ABs in Anaheim and maybe available...someone I may want if the cost is right

On a postseason note

JD Martinez DH maybe the single best fit for us at the deadline if our DH situation is not vastly improved (and maybe even if it is)....Obviously Voit + a 10ish spec (similar to some of the returns those trades for bats around the league last season yielded)

Quote from MrPadre19 on May 18, 2022, 5:09 pm

I am not a fan of Adell.

I just don’t think he will hit at this level.

 

Quote from fenn68 on May 18, 2022, 5:44 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on May 18, 2022, 5:09 pm

I am not a fan of Adell.

I just don’t think he will hit at this level.

 

Same view here … he is that prospect that is highly regarded based on all the tools … except hit. Once in a blue moon those prospects actually learn to hit … but that is the exception.