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Minor League Discussion
#1361 · October 20, 2020, 8:00 am
Going to be fascinating to analyze the decision surrounding Lawson and Rule 5. A healthy Lawson is a no brainer to protect given his prospect status / upside. Sort of makes the decision more of cost of risk ... 1. recovery from TJ (Mar 2020) ... 2. being selected by another team in Rule 5. That risk analysis is even more complicated based on the financial issues driven by COVID.
The cost side is easy ... protect him and put him on the IL in ST and he is paid ML minimum. About $600K. As he goes to the 60 day IL ... opens a 40 man roster slot for a non-roster add if needed.
Don't protect him ... other teams have the same decision if they select him plus the $100K(?) to acquire him.
Is it worth $600 or $700K worth having Lawson as a prospect? Probably there are teams that will say yes given what is paid to even less proven options in the draft / International FA. Nurse him on the IL in 2021 and carry him on the 26 man in 2022 when he should be fully recovered from TJ ... as a hard throwing pitcher could actually be very productive for a lot of pitching short teams. Way better than those typical 25 RP in A/AA often selected.
Padres protect him in may mind for the $600K and don't need to carry him in 2022 (his first of 3 minor league option years) ... will not create a 40 man roster issue in 2021.
#1362 · October 23, 2020, 8:49 am
Re: Lawson. Further argument "for" is that he's (at least, depending when it really starts) 12 months removed from TJ, so getting close to being able to throw. Agree if they protect him he is initially on IL, maybe even 60 day, but he shouldn't have to stay on it all year long. Maybe rehab early July, optioned down end July? # of option years a non-issue, $ is in 2021 - even minimum salary. If picked in Rule 5 that team can't option him; he could rehab in minors for 30 (or more?) days off TJ surgery, but then would have to be activated in MLB.
Contrast this to Wingenter. TJ Surgery in July 2020. So at 12 month mark in July 2021. No way he's coming off IL this year, which harsh but true is just a sunk $ cost. Team with more roster room could add him & then "stash" him on IL all season & have 3 more control years, but doubt any other team is willing to pay that cost in 2021 for a player who can't contribute this season, and is not a prospect. If Wingenter is DFA & not claimed, Padres control him in 2021, as he was a 2015 draftee like Jake Nix & Brett Kennedy who if still in org in Feb should be competing as SP's at back of the AAA rotation.
#1363 · October 23, 2020, 9:02 am
Noted that the Padres have let about 25 personnel from the baseball operations go ... primarily from the minor league operations. Reported that is about 10% ... note they have carried them (and the remaining) all summer without a minor league season.
I guess a combo of financial considerations and the unknown (but expected contraction) of the minor league teams in 2021 ... if there is a season.
Plus the incorporation of MiLB offices into MLB offices at the league level may also play a part.
Minors will be different in 2021.
#1364 · October 23, 2020, 9:09 am
Glad to see Tirso Ornelas is playing in Mexico (with a couple of other Pads P prospects) and is off to a great start.
That leaves OF Joshua Mears and Junior Perez as the only consensus Top 40 prospects entering 2020 not playing ball somewhere.
Ornelas could still be the PTBNL in the trade with the A's for Jorge Mateo, but I hope not.
Suspect all the unresolved PTBNL's coming & mostly going get announced shortly after the Rule 5 draft.
#1365 · October 27, 2020, 12:23 pm
I guess the lay offs have begun...Padres released quite a few Coaches at ML and Minor league levels.
Did I see than Single A will be contracted?
Does that mean Fort Wayne will be going away?
What a shame that would be.....they have a great facility and following.
I would guess they will probably secure a Double A team right?
#1366 · October 27, 2020, 1:56 pm
I have not heard any final call on how MLB will contract / re-organize the minor leagues. Last I heard “speculation” was the four full season levels would remain and the short season leagues would end and the Rookie level would be limited in the number of players they could have (excluding DSL).
However, a lot of speculation that leagues get reorganized and alignments get altered. So, some city like FW with a good park and good attendance might earn a move to a higher league (if that matters). Other cities in full season with unacceptable parks / attendance just might bite the dust in favor of a new city.
I guess if part of this minor league work is to save money (and provide better development structure) ... could argue for smaller leagues with all the cities close to each other for travel purposes. Mid-West League has a few very long bus rides ... Texas League the same. PCL is has some real travel issues. Beyond the cost of travel .... a lot of time spent traveling that maybe could be used better with players working of fundamentals (or just resting).
Not unusual to see a number of the minor league managers, coaches get cut around this time ... gives them time to find another gig over the winter. Sometimes just not happy with the individual ... sometimes want to “promote” someone from within to that slot ... and this year, maybe a bit of someone on a higher contract for someone with a less costly contract.
I can’t be easy for MLB to work through all the issues in re-imaging the minor leagues with franchise owners, city owned ballpark contracts, and each ML team with their own needs / wants. Would be surprised if we heard a resolution (with detail) before 2021.
#1367 · October 27, 2020, 2:28 pm
From what I've read, the Padres would still have El Paso, Amarillo, Ft. Wayne and Lake Elsinore but the latter two would switch Hi and Lo A, i.e., Ft. Wayne would become the Hi A team. Tri-City is gone as is one of the two Peoria teams in the Arizona Rookie League. The Padres have one team in the Dominican Summer League (DSL) but other teams have two - maybe they'll expand to two in the DSL? Small % of players actually become major leaguers from the DSL compared to the hundreds that are signed every year and I've read that the true prospects are there only because of tax purposes and could easily have been in the Rookie leagues stateside.
Attrition rate is high for minor leaguers so not surprising that 75-100 players will have to be let go prior to the 2021 season given the loss of two stateside teams.
#1368 · October 28, 2020, 9:06 am
Will Madfriars be publishing the list of Padre farmhands that are now minor league FA? Soon?
#1369 · October 28, 2020, 12:13 pm
Baseball America usually publishes these fairly quickly after the end of the season as they just did with MLB Free Agents today.
I've tried to compile my own list, based on service time, and my best guess is 5 position players and 10 pitchers with the caveat that some of these potential free agents might have signed two year deals last year and are not really free agents. I've probably missed some or miscalculated free agent eligibility but here's my best guesses:
Position players: Ivan Castillo, Allen Cordoba, Michael Gettys, Webster Rivas and Jason Vosler
Pitchers: Pedro Avila, Carlos Belen, Jean Cosme, Miguel Diaz, Brad Feigl, Chin-Wei Hu, Chase Johnson, Kyle McGrath, Emmanuel Ramirez and Hansel Rodriguez
Welcome any changes or corrections to this list.
#1370 · October 28, 2020, 1:45 pm
Good list Randy. That's who I've got also plus Daniel Camarena.
I'm hoping maybe Pedro Avila & Miguel Diaz signed 2 year deals when they re-upped last year b/c they were injured, but no idea.