Quote from MrPadre19 on May 7, 2018, 3:31 am

Quote from Cptjack on May 6, 2018, 3:03 pm

Quote from David Nevin on May 6, 2018, 6:24 am

So when do we start to talk about Reyes as a prospect?

One thing I have always had issue with is  prospect “potential” versus “production”.

A guy gets labeled a non prospect and it seems no matter what he does it’s extremely hard to shake that label.

I don't think Franmil Reyes ever got labeled a non-prospect. He was talked about more in the context of possibly not ever hitting enough to be viable. That's different in tone than a straight non-prospect which is typically reserved for old for league players that don't have any tools.

 

His  numbers at LE and SA are better than Renfroe’s at a younger age.Renfroe was our top prospect while he made his way through......Reyes is barely in the top 30 if at all.

If he’s hitting the same as Renfroe or better at a younger age and isn’t even in the top 20....I’d say

in that context he was labeled a non prospect.

 

Quote from dvmin98 on May 7, 2018, 4:15 am

Chris Paddack looks nasty.  Good to see him back, but I can honestly say, I wasn't expecting to see him this dominant this soon.  Gives me hope for Espinoza when he's back.  I could see Paddack in San Antonio after the All Star break (if not sooner) the way he's throwing (if he can continue the dominance).

Quote from MrPadre19 on May 7, 2018, 8:07 am

Yeah so far there has been very little disappointment from the young arms.

For the most part they are all performing as expected....with only a few exceptions.

Add in the incredible starts for Naylor,Allen,Reyes and Reed and I'm truly excited about our system.

 

Quote from David Jay on May 7, 2018, 9:09 am

Quote from David Nevin on May 7, 2018, 3:31 am

Quote from Cptjack on May 6, 2018, 3:03 pm

Quote from David Nevin on May 6, 2018, 6:24 am

So when do we start to talk about Reyes as a prospect?

One thing I have always had issue with is  prospect “potential” versus “production”.

A guy gets labeled a non prospect and it seems no matter what he does it’s extremely hard to shake that label.

I don't think Franmil Reyes ever got labeled a non-prospect. He was talked about more in the context of possibly not ever hitting enough to be viable. That's different in tone than a straight non-prospect which is typically reserved for old for league players that don't have any tools.

 

His  numbers at LE and SA are better than Renfroe’s at a younger age.Renfroe was our top prospect while he made his way through......Reyes is barely in the top 30 if at all.

If he’s hitting the same as Renfroe or better at a younger age and isn’t even in the top 20....I’d say

in that context he was labeled a non prospect.

 

 

Comparing "by age" without taking into consideration "by experience" is a bit of a red herring, even if the statement was accurate. But it's not. Renfroe's production at Elsinore (his first full professional season) was significantly better than Franmil's (in his fourth year stateside).  And this is coming from the guy who was consistently highest on Reyes for three straight years.

There are plenty of reasons Renfroe is/was a better prospect. There are legitimate concerns about whether Franmil's lack of athleticism and big body will hold up even until he's 25. There have always been legitimate concerns about whether Franmil's long-levered swing will hold up against elite velocity (he's made some mechanical changes that improve the chances over the last year). Reyes is a below average defender already.

He's also one of the most fun guys to be around in the system and I really hope he can get an opportunity at the big league level, because he'll certainly have a puncher's chance at success.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on May 7, 2018, 10:24 am

I didn't mean to analyze their stats thoroughly....but "in general" they both hit with good power with low contact rates.

If they both had the same AB's in LE I would think they would have both had similar HR and XBH's.

But my point was that there was already a perception of their prospect value at this point and the difference was

HUGE and not in proportion with their production.

As I said......I understand their is a difference in projection and production....I just think in many cases it's too extreme.

These two could turn out to be a good example.

Renfroe is now 27 and looking like a 4th outfielder.....Reyes is still just 22 and it's looking like he won't have much trouble matching that ceiling with the potential still to be much more.

Either way I guess it's pretty good news for the Padres that he wasn't even on some of the top 30 lists.

 

 

Quote from Cptjack on May 7, 2018, 10:36 am

Quote from David Nevin on May 7, 2018, 3:31 am

His  numbers at LE and SA are better than Renfroe’s at a younger age. Renfroe was our top prospect while he made his way through......Reyes is barely in the top 30 if at all.

They weren't. He's a .260/.330/.800 guy over the last 3 years. If you drop Renfroe's BA .040 points I doubt anyone analyzes him as a top prospect considering there were already questions on his long swing and K%. The reason he defied those questions was because he hit. He also had what scouts considered elite defense.

Quote from MrPadre19 on May 7, 2018, 11:35 am

Apparently Renfroes elite defense was a mirage also.

I would have to think though if Reyes keeps this up he should take a leap in our prospect rankings?

I mean.......just imagine what he's gonna do with a full season in the Pacific Coast League.

 

 

 

 

Quote from David Jay on May 7, 2018, 1:54 pm

Quote from David Nevin on May 7, 2018, 10:24 am

If they both had the same AB's in LE I would think they would have both had similar HR and XBH's.

You think if Renfroe had stayed in Elsinore for 231 more plate appearances, he would have hit 11 more doubles and not homered at all? Because he and Franmil both had 16 HRs for the Storm.

And what scouts (and we) saw in Renfroe's defense is fantastic athleticism, not elite performance.

Quote from poolie on May 7, 2018, 3:09 pm

Is Carter Capps still in the organisation?