Quote from fenn68 on April 18, 2023, 5:06 am

Although I am confident (?) that Soto will not continue in his current horrible "slump" ... not all that a confident he will rebound to his 2018-21 levels in WASH. Consider:

2439 PA in WASH with .966 OPS ... about a .330 BABIP ... and a high opposite field hit % BUT

436 PA in WASH (first 4 months of 2022) his OPS dropped to .894 and his BABIP dropped to .243 THEN

228 PA in SD (last 2 months of 2022) his OPS dropped to .778 and his BABIP was .261 NOW

74 PA in SD (2023) his OPS dropped again to .731 and his BABIP dropped to .179 and less opposite field hitting.

Been hearing a lot of discussion as the to reasons for the season+ decline ... most just guessing and a lot attributing it to the move to SD (new environment ... but 3 months of play and an offseason should eliminated that as a issue). Last reason was Soto having difficulty with the pitch clock (even Soto said that) ... does not explain 2022 but could contribute to a worse 2023. Also, a lot of mechanical problems (to some) but no reason why he has altered his successful first four years in WASH.

We are Padres fans ... so we tend to focus on Soto in SD but I would suggest Soto's issue began during the first four months of 2022 in WASH as his stats began the downward trajectory. That could give more credence to his turning down that $440MM contract the previous winter which, in turn, caused him to alter his approach ... which did not work but never having to struggle before that the stat drop just built upon itself to start a decline. Just a different speculation but it does go back to the start of the problem.

If nothing else it will be interesting to follow how much Soto can grow out of this slump and continue to speculate on causes.

 

Quote from fenn68 on April 18, 2023, 5:19 am

Saw a report where Soto said he wanted to bat 3rd or 4th so he could drive in more run (not something he is doing all that well). Earlier in the year, Machado said he wanted to bat 3rd. Two can't fit into that 3rd slot ... and both are big money super-stars making it more challenging for Melvin. Then add that Bogaerts is the most productive hitter so far ... deserves the 3-4 slots ... and he is another mega star.

Melvin has apparently convinced Soto to return to the #2 slot behind Tatis (who will be lead-off) and ahead of Machado and Bogaerts ... both RHH ... to minimize his hitting against LHP (with two RHH behind him less chance of a team bring in a LHRP for Soto with the 3 batter minimum).

So it looks as tough we will be seeing Tatis - Soto (L) - Machado - Bogaerts as the standard top of the order and it will be up to Soto to hit his way into the #3/#4 slot ... if that is ever in his future.

Going to be hard to make a call until we see Soto and Machado actually hit to near the back of their baseball cards.

Quote from BoosterSD on April 18, 2023, 7:24 am

Quote from fenn68 on April 18, 2023, 5:19 am

Saw a report where Soto said he wanted to bat 3rd or 4th so he could drive in more run (not something he is doing all that well). Earlier in the year, Machado said he wanted to bat 3rd. Two can't fit into that 3rd slot ... and both are big money super-stars making it more challenging for Melvin. Then add that Bogaerts is the most productive hitter so far ... deserves the 3-4 slots ... and he is another mega star.

I have said it before, there is nothing wrong with batting Machado, Soto, Bogaerts 3, 4, 5. Tatis leads off, leaving someone to fill the two spot.

You would think that Grisham and his bunting ability would/could be a good option but he is in love with hitting HRs. Crone should also be a good option, and it may right his ship, since to me it looks as if he is getting pull happy again, trying to launch HRs. So maybe, if he is hitting in the two spot, with Tatis on base around 37% of the time, Crone could go back to that hit to all fields approach that usually does him well. Historically, Crone has not done well in the two spot, while that has been Grishams best line up spot.

So maybe we should see a top 5 of Tatis, Grisham, Machado, Soto, Bogaerts. And give them 5-6 games to see how that really works.

 

Quote from WindsorUK on April 18, 2023, 8:22 am

Soto has batted 2nd and 3rd so far this year...and stunk, just like our offense.

Why not bat him 4? Tatis, Cronenworth, Machado, Soto, Bogaerts, Cruz/ Carpenter, Nola/Campusano/Sullivan, Kim, Grisham

Couldn't be worse than 3 shutout in 8 games.

Quote from WindsorUK on April 18, 2023, 8:28 am

Quote from BoosterSD on April 18, 2023, 7:24 am

Quote from fenn68 on April 18, 2023, 5:19 am

Saw a report where Soto said he wanted to bat 3rd or 4th so he could drive in more run (not something he is doing all that well). Earlier in the year, Machado said he wanted to bat 3rd. Two can't fit into that 3rd slot ... and both are big money super-stars making it more challenging for Melvin. Then add that Bogaerts is the most productive hitter so far ... deserves the 3-4 slots ... and he is another mega star.

I have said it before, there is nothing wrong with batting Machado, Soto, Bogaerts 3, 4, 5. Tatis leads off, leaving someone to fill the two spot.

You would think that Grisham and his bunting ability would/could be a good option but he is in love with hitting HRs. Crone should also be a good option, and it may right his ship, since to me it looks as if he is getting pull happy again, trying to launch HRs. So maybe, if he is hitting in the two spot, with Tatis on base around 37% of the time, Crone could go back to that hit to all fields approach that usually does him well. Historically, Crone has not done well in the two spot, while that has been Grishams best line up spot.

So maybe we should see a top 5 of Tatis, Grisham, Machado, Soto, Bogaerts. And give them 5-6 games to see how that really works.

 

I think Grisham and Soto watch way too many pitches to have them so close together in the lineup. Plus both are feast or famine at this point.

Put as many bats between these guys as possible. Keep the lineup moving.

Quote from fenn68 on April 18, 2023, 10:21 am

I would be inclined to go Tatis, Bogaerts 1-2. Bogaerts (at least so far) seems to be the best hitter with the ability to make contact and go to all fields which should be very productive with Tatis’ ability to get on base and speed.

That would put a larger number of runners for Soto/Machado at 3-4. Soto at 3 to keep a RHH Machado behind him to reduce the opposition value of bring in a LHRP to pitch to Soto.

Against LHSP might go with Cruz at 5 and drop Cronenworth to 6 … Kim 7 … Nola 8 … Grisham 9. Against a RHSP, move Cronenworth to 5 … Kim to 6 … and insert Carpenter at 7.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on April 18, 2023, 2:28 pm

If it makes anyone feel better it seems Soto has always been a slow starter.

Maybe not to this extent but his production has always improved as the season goes on.

April/May much worse than June/July and Aug/September.

 

Quote from Jeremy Hill on April 19, 2023, 7:41 am

Interesting article about Soto's struggles.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2023/04/18/juan-soto-padres-trade-from-nationals-rebounding-in-san-diego

Quote from fenn68 on April 19, 2023, 7:57 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on April 19, 2023, 7:41 am

Interesting article about Soto's struggles.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2023/04/18/juan-soto-padres-trade-from-nationals-rebounding-in-san-diego

Very well written article covering all the issues.